Best Picture predictions-2017!

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

You say out like they were ever in.

You were predicting them at one point, no?  

[WrathOfHan]

Might as well make some new predictions now that pretty much everything big from the festivals has premiered save for Molly's Game and Roman Israel (I'm leaving out the PTA joint because I think Focus will push it to 2018)

 

Picture:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. Call Me by Your Name

4. The Post

5. Darkest Hour

6. Last Flag Flying

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

8. Lady Bird

9. Get Out

10. Wonder Wheel

Alt: Downsizing

 

Director: 

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post

5. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Alt: Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (swap with Carell if he's lead)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

5. Christian Bale, Hostiles

Alt: Tom Hanks, The Post

 

Actress: 

 

1. Meryl Streep, The Post

2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

3. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

4. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Alt: Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

5. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (swap with Fishburne if Carell goes lead)

Alt: Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Rosamund Pike, Hostiles

2. Hong Chau, Downsizing

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

4. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Alt: Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Get Out

3. The Post

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Lady Bird

Alt: Wonder Wheel

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. Last Flag Flying

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Disaster Artist

5. Molly's Game

Alt: The Death of Stalin

 

Other categories:

 

Spoiler

Cinematography:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. mother!

5. Darkest Hour

Alt: Wonder Wheel

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Shape of Water

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Production Design:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. mother!

5. Downsizing

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Shape of Water

5. Wonder Wheel

Alt: Murder on the Orient Express

 

Makeup:

 

1. Darkest Hour

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

3. The Greatest Showman

Alt: Beauty and the Beast

 

Score:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Darkest Hour

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: The Greatest Showman

 

Song:

 

1. Coco

2. The Greatest Showman

3. Evermore, Beauty and the Beast

4. Mystery of Love, Call Me by Your Name

5. I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Fifty Shades Darker

Alt: It Ain't Fair, Detroit

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. mother!

Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. The Greatest Showman

4. Blade Runner 2049

5. Baby Driver

Alt: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Total nominations:

 

13:

The Shape of Water (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

8:

Darkest Hour (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup, Score)

Dunkirk (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

7:

Call Me by Your Name (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Song)

 

6:

Blade Runner 2049 (Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

5:

The Post (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Score)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)

 

4:

The Greatest Showman (Costume Design, Makeup, Song, Sound Mixing)

Lady Bird (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay)

Last Flag Flying (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

mother! (Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing)

 

3:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Wonder Wheel (Picture, Actress, Costume Design)

 

2: 

Beauty and the Beast (Costume Design, Song)

Downsizing (Supporting Actress, Production Design)

Get Out (Picture, Original Screenplay)

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 (Makeup, Visual Effects)

Hostiles (Actor, Supporting Actress)

[Cmasterclay]

Last Flag Flying and Wonder Wheel are festival movies, they ain't shown yet.

 

I redid my acting ones yesterday so I'll just do picture

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Call Me By Your Name

3. Shape of Water

4. Last Flag Flying

5. Darkest Hour

6. The Post

7. Get Out

8. Mudbound

9. Lady Bird/Wonder Wheel, not convinced we're getting nine again though.

 

Alt: mother! (lots of first place votes)

 

Mine are very similar to Han's in this category.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Last Flag Flying and Wonder Wheel are festival movies, they ain't shown yet.

 

I redid my acting ones yesterday so I'll just do picture

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Call Me By Your Name

3. Shape of Water

4. Last Flag Flying

5. Darkest Hour

6. The Post

7. Get Out

8. Mudbound

9. Lady Bird/Wonder Wheel, not convinced we're getting nine again though.

 

Alt: mother! (lots of first place votes)

 

Mine are very similar to Han's in this category.

I was referring to TIFF/Venice/Telluride  

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I was referring to TIFF/Venice/Telluride  

All the casual festivals, really. NYFF is for the real cinephiles. And wait till you find out  about AFI

[AniNate]

NY and AFI's premiere selections can be hit or miss. Biggest thing to come out of NY last year was 20th Century Women and AFI just had Moana

[stripe]

They all look like solid bets for me

Dunkirk

Shape of Water

Call me by your name

Darkest Hour

The Post

mother! (it's the kind of movie with huge supporters leading to a nom)

Get Out

 

 

Maybe: Phantom thread, Mudbound, The greatest showman, wonder wheel.

 

 

Really unsure about Last Flag Flying or Ladybird.

 

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

NY and AFI's premiere selections can be hit or miss. Biggest thing to come out of NY last year was 20th Century Women and AFI just had Moana

AFI has mostly produced nonstarters in recent years (J. Edgar, Concussion, Patriots Day). More often than not it's just nice place to premiere an end of the year release with big name talent involved.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

AFI has mostly produced nonstarters in recent years (J. Edgar, Concussion, Patriots Day). More often than not it's just nice place to premiere an end of the year release with big name talent involved.

They did also premiere American Sniper, though.

[Cmasterclay]

Huh, maybe Molly's Game is a player after all. After the rumors about troubled production and the mehhh trailer I wrote it off, but apparently shit is really great. I think Elba might get in for Supporting Actor - he's in everything this year, it feels like a big moment for him, and he's one of those people that feels like a nomination waiting to happen one of these days. Best Actress is loaded, but Chastain can do it.

[WrathOfHan]

Molly's Game will completely depend on the box office and STX. They've had their fair share of box office fuck ups (coughedgeofseventeencough) and aren't a tested awards player, so we'll see how it turns out. An adapted screenplay nomination is definitely happening at the very least. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Molly's Game will completely depend on the box office and STX. They've had their fair share of box office fuck ups (coughedgeofseventeencough) and aren't a tested awards player, so we'll see how it turns out. An adapted screenplay nomination is definitely happening at the very least. 

Yeah, it feels like a Screenplay + 1 acting nom (Chastain) play at most to me. Which is still better than I expected.

[Cmasterclay]

Even I, Tonya, which was rumored for a long time to be bad, is getting terrific notices. Seems like a lock for Globe Comedy nod, and Robbie/Janney are contenders. This season is starting to get loaded. Outside of Suburbicon and Wonderstruck, everything is staying within shouting distance - and the early part of the year already has contenders.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Even I, Tonya, which was rumored for a long time to be bad, is getting terrific notices. Seems like a lock for Globe Comedy nod, and Robbie/Janney are contenders. This season is starting to get loaded. Outside of Suburbicon and Wonderstruck, everything is staying within shouting distance - and the early part of the year already has contenders.

I, Tonya doesn't have a distributor yet. I can see someone such Focus picking it up and giving it a March 2018 release where it'll have a chance to have a really good box office run.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I, Tonya doesn't have a distributor yet. I can see someone such Focus picking it up and giving it a March 2018 release where it'll have a chance to have a really good box office run.

I think they are putting in a condition for a 2017 platform release in the sales.

 

With the Winter Olympics from february 9 to 25, maybe you want the movie to play in January during the Olympics promotion ?

[WrathOfHan]

If I, Tonya is coming out this year, Allison Janney could win it  

[filmlover]

I'm done trying to predict the acting categories. There's bound to be some big snubs.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm just going to assume anything released or premiered earlier in the year save for Dunkirk and CMBYN is at a disadvantage in the bigger categories.

 

The Big Sick: The only reason people were predicting Holly Hunter was because of how weak Supporting Actress appeared. She stands very little chance now, and Original Screenplay will be tough to crack.

Detroit: A damn shame this is going to be ignored. Annapurna might be getting Hostiles, so they have no reason to campaign for a film that was a box office bomb.

Get Out: I was already losing confidence in its BP chances at the start of the festivals, and now with new contenders emerging, I highly doubt it'll get into Picture anymore. It won't even hold the title of the biggest horror film in years  Original Screenplay should still happen.

Florida Project: This already had shaky Oscar projects, but A24 has a clear push with Lady Bird. If Dafoe wasn't getting career best notices, I'd have him out of my predictions.

Mudbound: Sorry Clay, but this never had a chance with Netflix involved. I don't even think they'll advertise this a whole lot like 95% of their original shit.

Novitiate: Supporting Actress changed a lot over the past couple weeks. Melissa Leo was always going to be a sole nominee for the film, but can it sustain momentum?

 

Edited September 9, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm just going to assume anything released or premiered earlier in the year save for Dunkirk and CMBYN is at a disadvantage in the bigger categories.

 

The Big Sick: The only reason people were predicting Holly Hunter was because of how weak Supporting Actress appeared. She stands very little chance now, and Original Screenplay will be tough to crack.

Detroit: A damn shame this is going to be ignored. Annapurna might be getting Hostiles, so they have no reason to campaign for a film that was a box office bomb.

Get Out: I was already losing confidence in its BP chances at the start of the festivals, and now with new contenders emerging, I highly doubt it'll get into Picture anymore. It won't even hold the title of the biggest horror film in years  Original Screenplay should still happen.

Florida Project: This already had shaky Oscar projects, but A24 has a clear push with Lady Bird. If Dafoe wasn't getting career best notices, I'd have him out of my predictions.

Mudbound: Sorry Clay, but this never had a chance with Netflix involved. I don't even think they'll advertise this a whole lot like 95% of their original shit.

Novitiate: Supporting Actress changed a lot over the past couple weeks. Melissa Leo was always going to be a sole nominee for the film, but can it sustain momentum?

 

Let's wait and see who picks up I, Tonya first.

[WrathOfHan]

I say Actress has 10 people with a decent shot at a nomination:

 

1. Streep

2. Hawkins

3. McDormand

4. Ronan

5. Winslet

6. Chastain

7. Stone

8. Lawrence

9. Dench

10. Robbie

 

All 10 will probably get Globe nominations because half are dramas and half are comedies, so that will tell us basically nothing