Best Picture predictions-2017!

[MinaTakla]

So glad to be a foreign correspondent for Awards Watch!

This is one of the first articles they publish for me on the site: 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2017 by MinaTakla

[Cmasterclay]

I read the script for The Post tonight. Ehhhh. Kinda stodgy, lots of old white people in old white rooms sitting and talking. Kind of hits alot of similar beats as other movies, all while failing to make the stakes clear. Transitions between scenes are weird too, and no really interesting motiffs or sequencing or cold opens or anything. But it's been rewritten alot and some of that Steven magic could certainly do good for it - it has some very good moments already. Regardless Hanks and Streep seem like bang up contenders - both super meaty roles, no matter how the rest of the picture turns out.

 

Also read Roman Israel Esq. Really dug the first 2/3rds, thought the third act was rushed and disjointed. Think it goes like Nightcrawler - tons of praise for the lead star, notices in editing or screenplay, never a true player in Picture or Director. But that could be different if they make some changes. Denzel is totally legit unless they completely fuck it up, though. Excellent part for him. If it wasn't for Oldman, he could win, based just on this script and what he could do with it. I feel comfortable moving him into my predictions. Hanks too, though to a lesser degree cuz the part is similar enough to his Bridge of Spies/Sully stuff that he could get left out again. He was snubbed hard for Bridge of Spies, IMO. And if you thought Streep wasn't getting nominated again, good luck. She's got another one coming, great role for her.

Edited September 4, 2017 by Cmasterclay

[WrathOfHan]

9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I read the script for The Post tonight. Ehhhh. Kinda stodgy, lots of old white people in old white rooms sitting and talking. Kind of hits alot of similar beats as other movies, all while failing to make the stakes clear. Transitions between scenes are weird too, and no really interesting motiffs or sequencing or cold opens or anything. But it's been rewritten alot and some of that Steven magic could certainly do good for it - it has some very good moments already. Regardless Hanks and Streep seem like bang up contenders - both super meaty roles, no matter how the rest of the picture turns out.

 

Also read Roman Israel Esq. Really dug the first 2/3rds, thought the third act was rushed and disjointed. Think it goes like Nightcrawler - tons of praise for the lead star, notices in editing or screenplay, never a true player in Picture or Director. But that could be different if they make some changes. Denzel is totally legit unless they completely fuck it up, though. Excellent part for him. If it wasn't for Oldman, he could win, based just on this script and what he could do with it. I feel comfortable moving him into my predictions. Hanks too, though to a lesser degree cuz the part is similar enough to his Bridge of Spies/Sully stuff that he could get left out again. He was snubbed hard for Bridge of Spies, IMO. And if you thought Streep wasn't getting nominated again, good luck. She's got another one coming, great role for her.

What did you think of Farrell's role?

[CoolioD1]

i read all those a year ago and i agree about the post, matter of fact reading it made me sure it wouldn't win best picture because i thought it was too similar to spotlight, and since then the script has gotten a rewrite from... the guy who wrote spotlight. inner city i gave up on after like 30 pages just too jargony for me i'm sure the film will be more interesting. also read darkest hour and from the sounds of reactions they didn't change much. oldman gets a big monologue in like every scene.

[The Panda]

Idk who's lead in Last Flag but I think Cranston on paper could get in. 

 

Thinking

Oldman/Cranston/Washington/DDL/Chalamet

 

but I could see Hanks, Franco or a few others take the last spot from Chalamet (or one of the other four if their movie's fall over)

[WrathOfHan]

After Bale got raved for Hostiles, this is what I'm predicting for Actor:

 

1. Oldman

2. DDL (not convinced this is releasing in 2017 tho, plus Focus already has to campaign Oldman)

3. Cranston/Carell

4. Chalamet

5. Bale

 

If DDL isn't in contention this year, add in Denzel

If Bale also isn't in contention this year, add in Hanks

[CoolioD1]

if supporting actor ends up like dafoe/fishburne/rockwell/shannon/stuhlbarg or something that would be pretty baller. haven't seen any of the films but that's like five of the best character actors working in one line-up.

[CoolioD1]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

After Bale got raved for Hostiles, this is what I'm predicting for Actor:

 

1. Oldman

2. DDL (not convinced this is releasing in 2017 tho, plus Focus already has to campaign Oldman)

3. Cranston/Carell

4. Chalamet

5. Bale

 

If DDL isn't in contention this year, add in Denzel

If Bale also isn't in contention this year, add in Hanks

if hostiles gets picked up by someone good i think rosamund pike could WIN supporting actress. sounds like a super baity role and no one clearly ahead in that category rn.

[Cmasterclay]

Yea realistically we should be able to get two journalism movies in a decade if we get 10 superhero movies a year but also Spotlight is absolutely going to work against the Post, it just reads like the poor man's version. Should still get nommed, though. Outside of Hanks and Streep NOTHING for that ensemble though, no Ruffalo or McAdams nom coming for this. And Farrell in Inner City isn't happening unless they really beef up his role or he plays it in some complete off the wall way that elevates it from what's written. Also his character's last name is Patel, so that's weird.

 

Anyway, I am now predicting Oldman/Washington/Chalamet/Hanks in Actor, with the last spot coming down to DDL/Bale/Cranston/Carell depending on what comes out this year (lol if Gyllenhaal or Garfield get in for those corny ass movies, I wouldn't be stunned). Actress I'll go Streep/Stone/Hawkins/Dench/Winlset, but maybe McDormand or Lawrence or Mirren gets in instead. Supporting Actor I'll go Dafoe/Stuhlberg/Shannon/Hammer (Armie, not Justin Hammer)/and....Jason Mitchell? There's like five guys I can see. I'm really only sure on Dafoe at all, just like Ali was the only sure thing last year. Supporting Actress I go Chau/Leo/Pfeiffer/Blige/Scott Thomas, though sub in Pike if that drops this year.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

After the raves for Three Billboards I have Sam Rockwell in third for Supporting Actor. I think he might win it! 

[Cmasterclay]

I'm still not convinced enough that Three Billboards is gonna be a player in any sense to pull in McDormand or Rockwell, but if people remember it and it doesn't get overlooked like I think it will they certainly can be strong contenders.

[CoolioD1]

It's interesting but Water, Billboards and battle of the sexes are all fox searchlight and I don't think they'll get three best actress nominations. I'd say Hawkins in because that movie's a frontrunner and stone more likely than McDormand because it's a biopic and she just won.

[4815162342]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Actress I'll go Streep/Stone/Hawkins/Dench/Winlset, but maybe McDormand or Lawrence or Mirren gets in instead.

 

 

Don't sleep on Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

It's interesting but Water, Billboards and battle of the sexes are all fox searchlight and I don't think they'll get three best actress nominations. I'd say Hawkins in because that movie's a frontrunner and stone more likely than McDormand because it's a biopic and she just won.

OTOH Battle of the Sexes comes out in September vs November and December for the other two. Right now I don't have McDormand or Stone in my predictions, but I'd say McDormand is likelier because of Three Billboard's chances in Supporting Actor and Screenplay.

[WrathOfHan]

http://deadline.com/2017/09/telluride-film-festival-christian-bale-hostiles-oscar-race-1202160692/

 

Quote

Producer John Lesher says he is working on getting this film a home but didn’t give details. I talked to some of the distributors in town about this rare Telluride sales item. One indie with lots of recent Oscar success says they saw it a couple of months ago and weren’t interested, not the right fit for its slate this year. Another veteran distributor, always with something in the Oscar race, was interested but told me they would definitely not make a deal if the requirement was for a release in 2017. That seems to be a sticking point, but maybe not for Searchlight, which has been down this road before with Cooper, and also released Lesher’s Oscar winning Birdman. Annapurna, after a disappointing run this summer with their big 2017 Oscar hopeful Detroit, is rumored to be in the mix as well and could probably use a movie that might score with an Academy full of filmmakers likely to love this kind of highly cinematic piece.

lmfao Weinstein is definitely the studio that doesn't want to release it this year. I think Annapurna will get it.

[filmlover]

Yeah, Annapurna seems the most likely to pick up Hostiles. They have nothing on their plate (Detroit is already pretty much forgotten and that Professor Marston movie has flop written all over it) so I can see them getting it as their first bid in the Oscar race. Plus they're releasing Bale's Cheney movie next year too.

 

Just saw the raves for Three Billboards, dang. I think I'm done trying to predict who will be nominated in the acting categories aside from Lead Actor until the critics awards because the rest are all really stacked with contenders.

Edited September 5, 2017 by filmlover

[Tauren Warlock]

Mother! just got booed at the Venice screening and received very negative reactions. I don't think it'll be nominated for anything.

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, Tauren Warlock said:

Mother! just got booed at the Venice screening and received very negative reactions. I don't think it'll be nominated for anything.

Very negative is a stretch; the reviews are pretty positive. That said, JLaw isn't happening anymore with how crowded the category has become, and Pfeiffer might be out too. It should still get some technical nominations and MAYBE Aronofsky in Director if the directing branch is passionate enough.

Edited September 5, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Very negative is a stretch; the reviews are pretty positive. That said, JLaw isn't happening anymore with how crowded the category has become, and Pfeiffer might be out too. It should still get some technical nominations and MAYBE Aronofsky in Director if the directing branch is passionate enough.

You say out like they were ever in.

[filmlover]

Yeah, I never bought mother! as being a contender at all after the trailer landed, and these reviews haven't dispelled that notion. Excited to see the movie though with all the polarizing reactions.