Valonqar Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 (edited) Agreed. I think Mother! will miss out on all major noms but could score a tech or two. I don't see Jlaw getting in for this cause BA is stacked through the roof already and we know that there's Streep spot so it's really actresses vying for 4 spots. So before Winslet is seen (I'm not buying her nom/win/whatever just yet, look how big flop Dench's Victoria&Abdul is): Hawkins - gunning for the win Ronan - challenger McDormand - challenger #2 Streep - Streep 5th spot - Robbie, Benning, Chastain, Winslet, Vega I also reserve judgement cause festival reactions are one thing but keeping the buzz alive and not falling off the wagon/peaking too early is another. So we'll see who sinks and who swims. Usually, contenders who are in conversation to win (any category) are safer bet than those who are only in nomination conversation, cause people like to vote for the winner. of course, there's always Ben Affleck surprise but, as a rule, projected winners lock Oscar noms while projected nominees may miss out due to a late-in-the-game upset (see Gyllenhaal for Night Crawler and Adams for Arrival). Edited September 15, 2017 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 23 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Agreed. I think Mother! will miss out on all major noms but could score a tech or two. I don't see Jlaw getting in for this cause BA is stacked through the roof already and we know that there's Streep spot so it's really actresses vying for 4 spots. So before Winslet is seen (I'm not buying her nom/win/whatever just yet, look how big flop Dench's Victoria&Abdul is): Hawkins - gunning for the win Ronan - challenger McDormand - challenger #2 Streep - Streep 5th spot - Robbie, Benning, Chastain, Winslet, Vega I also reserve judgement cause festival reactions are one thing but keeping the buzz alive and not falling off the wagon/peaking too early is another. So we'll see who sinks and who swims. Usually, contenders who are in conversation to win (any category) are safer bet than those who are only in nomination conversation, cause people like to vote for the winner. of course, there's always Ben Affleck surprise but, as a rule, projected winners lock Oscar noms while projected nominees may miss out due to a late-in-the-game upset (see Gyllenhaal for Night Crawler and Adams for Arrival). Bening is going nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 58 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Bening is going nowhere. Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 14 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: After seeing mother!, I'm still keeping it in the four categories I've been predicting: Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, and Sound Editing (where I think it might win). I loved JLaw in the film, but it's a restrained performance most of the time and might be tough to break into the competitive Actress field. dunkirk's had both the sounds locked down for two months dude. can't see any of those nominations personally. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: dunkirk's had both the sounds locked down for two months dude. can't see any of those nominations personally. Dunkirk doesn't have the sound categories on lockdown. I could easily see Shape of Water or Blade Runner getting both, and Greatest Showman will probably contend in Mixing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Dunkirk doesn't have the sound categories on lockdown. I could easily see Shape of Water or Blade Runner getting both, and Greatest Showman will probably contend in Mixing. no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The biggest advantage Pfeiffer has is that Spoiler She's gone after the 70 minute mark or so. If voters turn off their screener in the last act, they've still seen all of Pfeiffer's performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 has TIFF voted their People's Choice yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 18 hours ago, Valonqar said: has TIFF voted their People's Choice yet? Soon. Last day of the festival is tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 IDK considering the better tham expected notices Stronger is getting and the raves for his performance I definitely think Gyllenhaal being mentioned in a thin Best Actor race seems likely. I would put him in. I'd certainly put him in over Jeremy Renner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: IDK considering the better tham expected notices Stronger is getting and the raves for his performance I definitely think Gyllenhaal being mentioned in a thin Best Actor race seems likely. I would put him in. I'd certainly put him in over Jeremy Renner. I brought this up in the weekend thread with Tatiana Maslany and Supporting Actress. It really depends how much Roadside campaigns for the film. If it's a nice little box office hit, that would definitely help. This is what I'm predicting for Actor at the moment (no DDL because I doubt Phantom Thread is this year): 1. Oldman 2. Chalamet 3. Cranston 4. Franco 5. Hanks 6. Renner 7. Gyllenhaal 8. Washington Edited September 16, 2017 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 22 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: The biggest advantage Pfeiffer has is that Reveal hidden contents She's gone after the 70 minute mark or so. If voters turn off their screener in the last act, they've still seen all of Pfeiffer's performance. Stahp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I can definitely see Gyllenhaal randomly showing up at SAG. Ultimately depends on how Stronger does at the box office. Doubt it does anything great, but the budget was probably low so even if it makes half of what Patriots Day did, it won't be seen as a flop like that film was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Stahp. no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, WrathOfHan said: no. God help you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 22 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: The biggest advantage Pfeiffer has is that Reveal hidden contents She's gone after the 70 minute mark or so. If voters turn off their screener in the last act, they've still seen all of Pfeiffer's performance. just try and think logically for a second. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: just try and think logically for a second. no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 37 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Stahp. 32 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, 4815162342 said: no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I will be very surprised if mother! gets any nominations. That's not to say it's not deserving (it's definitely going to be in the running for nods in actress, supporting actress, cinematography, and the sound categories on my personal ballot), but the divisive reactions and poor box office performance will force Paramount into an uphill battle to keep the film in voters' consciousness come December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
