Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023

[elzorro]

6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Some people in this thread are in the denial stage of grief...

I suspect those are the same people doing the reporting.

[robertman2]

Rather this do eh numbers but gets good reception rather than pull a DS2 or L&T

[MovieMan89]

I still think it’s not impossible that this really flounders on OW but gets great reception and ends up being way leggier than expected.
 

It’s not as if we don’t already know what the ceiling for GotG can look like, and honestly that ceiling is well over a bil in 2023 dollars. Not that I think WOM can help it that much, but it could make it way less of a disaster than opening looks.
 

Really this has to deliver quality or MCU big openings going forward are toast until they can rebuild the goodwill from the ground up again. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by MovieMan89

[ThomasNicole]

The best i can see at this point domestic wise is: 

 

Reviews are amazing like 71 on Metacritic and 89-90% on RT with a strong 7.6 or so average, fan screenings creates huge hype online and this combo blow up the presales avoiding a disaster and managing the 130M-ish opening of BOP high ending tracking. 

 

Then maybe if it gets lucky to get an A+ on CinemaScore it can benefit of lack of strong competition until The Little Mermaid [Fast X seems like a movie that won´t make even 150M DOM so i wouldn´t call that strong competition at least in US] ... so maybe it can ended up with 2.75x multiplier as best case scenario with an A+.

 

That would save it´s face and put it around 360M DOM, close enough to Vol. 2 to be perceived as a success after so many problems around MCU. 

 

The problem is while Fast X seems DOA on US, it still very big OS, which probably will hurt GOTG3. Opening will probably be soft like 150M or less, if reception is great maybe it could´ve benefit of great legs and ended up with 400M OS similar to L&T, but i doubt it will have this chance with Fast X taking it´s thunder. 

 

I would like to see at least 750M WW for this, without China boosting it i think it would be a very decent number, but i really think 600M is the realistic goal unless some drastic change happens. It won´t be a disaster like Quantumania but still very disappointing, but like i said, i think what MCU needs the most right now even more than huge numbers is great reception to rebuild the trust on their brand, and in this regard i think this movie can be their savior.

[Hatebox]

7 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Hopefully a good movie can help mends thing for the future outlook, even if it doesn´t help the box office to the impact that is needed. 

As long as they continue to anchor everything around Jonathon Majors they’ll be fine. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

28 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The best i can see at this point domestic wise is: 

 

Reviews are amazing like 71 on Metacritic and 89-90% on RT with a strong 7.6 or so average, fan screenings creates huge hype online and this combo blow up the presales avoiding a disaster and managing the 130M-ish opening of BOP high ending tracking. 

 

Then maybe if it gets lucky to get an A+ on CinemaScore it can benefit of lack of strong competition until The Little Mermaid [Fast X seems like a movie that won´t make even 150M DOM so i wouldn´t call that strong competition at least in US] ... so maybe it can ended up with 2.75x multiplier as best case scenario with an A+.

 

That would save it´s face and put it around 360M DOM, close enough to Vol. 2 to be perceived as a success after so many problems around MCU. 

 

The problem is while Fast X seems DOA on US, it still very big OS, which probably will hurt GOTG3. Opening will probably be soft like 150M or less, if reception is great maybe it could´ve benefit of great legs and ended up with 400M OS similar to L&T, but i doubt it will have this chance with Fast X taking it´s thunder. 

 

I would like to see at least 750M WW for this, without China boosting it i think it would be a very decent number, but i really think 600M is the realistic goal unless some drastic change happens. It won´t be a disaster like Quantumania but still very disappointing, but like i said, i think what MCU needs the most right now even more than huge numbers is great reception to rebuild the trust on their brand, and in this regard i think this movie can be their savior.

a good movie may stop the bleeding but there is no getting the audience back, these Non-Avengers may only make 700-800m worldwide, F4 and X-Men may help marvel in next phase if they pull it off

[Saul Goodman]

9 hours ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Rather this do eh numbers but gets good reception rather than pull a DS2 or L&T

Yep, they need a well received movie with good legs more than ever now than another DS2 type box office performance with great opening but meh legs.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Saul Goodman

[scytheavatar]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

The best i can see at this point domestic wise is: 

 

Reviews are amazing like 71 on Metacritic and 89-90% on RT with a strong 7.6 or so average, fan screenings creates huge hype online and this combo blow up the presales avoiding a disaster and managing the 130M-ish opening of BOP high ending tracking. 

 

Then maybe if it gets lucky to get an A+ on CinemaScore it can benefit of lack of strong competition until The Little Mermaid [Fast X seems like a movie that won´t make even 150M DOM so i wouldn´t call that strong competition at least in US] ... so maybe it can ended up with 2.75x multiplier as best case scenario with an A+.

 

That would save it´s face and put it around 360M DOM, close enough to Vol. 2 to be perceived as a success after so many problems around MCU. 

 

The problem is while Fast X seems DOA on US, it still very big OS, which probably will hurt GOTG3. Opening will probably be soft like 150M or less, if reception is great maybe it could´ve benefit of great legs and ended up with 400M OS similar to L&T, but i doubt it will have this chance with Fast X taking it´s thunder. 

 

I would like to see at least 750M WW for this, without China boosting it i think it would be a very decent number, but i really think 600M is the realistic goal unless some drastic change happens. It won´t be a disaster like Quantumania but still very disappointing, but like i said, i think what MCU needs the most right now even more than huge numbers is great reception to rebuild the trust on their brand, and in this regard i think this movie can be their savior.

 

Rumors are that GOTG vol 3 has a budget of 250M............. if true it grossing 600M is just as big of a disaster as Quantumania. If not more so.

 

I am not sure Disney too should give a shit about "rebuilding the trust on their brand" in your scenario cause it's not like 600M worth of audience is something big enough for future MCU films. Especially when upcoming MCU films will struggle to generate whetever little hype that GOTG vol 3 had.

Edited April 24, 2023 by scytheavatar

[kayumanggi]

I think one good thing this has going for it is that it has two weeks free of competition. FAST X is also not tracking very well so...

[Jeight]

11 hours ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Rather this do eh numbers but gets good reception rather than pull a DS2 or L&T

the same doctor strange that is fresh in the and made almost a billion?  Oh,  the horror/s

[Jeight]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

a good movie may stop the bleeding but there is no getting the audience back, these Non-Avengers may only make 700-800m worldwide, F4 and X-Men may help marvel in next phase if they pull it off

Marvel doesn't need x-men or f4. This kind of thinking is ridiculous.  The MCU became a phenomenon on the backs of b, c and d-listers for years. More than a decade.  It's hilarious to think they need to fast track the x-men.  They dont

[Sckathian]

Really weirdly I don’t see the engagement I would expect with the previews.

[PrinceRico]

Don’t think good reviews are going to help this it all. People are either on board or will just wait for streaming. There is no must see factor this. Plus the trailers have been a complete mess. James Gunn will definitely have two flops in a row with good reviews.

[Last Man Standing]

8 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

The best i can see at this point domestic wise is: 

 

Reviews are amazing like 71 on Metacritic and 89-90% on RT with a strong 7.6 or so average, fan screenings creates huge hype online and this combo blow up the presales avoiding a disaster and managing the 130M-ish opening of BOP high ending tracking. 

 

Then maybe if it gets lucky to get an A+ on CinemaScore it can benefit of lack of strong competition until The Little Mermaid [Fast X seems like a movie that won´t make even 150M DOM so i wouldn´t call that strong competition at least in US] ... so maybe it can ended up with 2.75x multiplier as best case scenario with an A+.

 

 

From the description of the movie (specifically it being the darkest MCU movie), I think an A+ CS is very unlikely.

[Jeight]

Zero chance this flops

[scytheavatar]

5 hours ago, Jeight said:

Marvel doesn't need x-men or f4. This kind of thinking is ridiculous.  The MCU became a phenomenon on the backs of b, c and d-listers for years. More than a decade.  It's hilarious to think they need to fast track the x-men.  They dont

 

The MCU became a phenomenon on the backs of Kevin Feige. Who right now seems to be in retirement mode. The MCU had B, C and D listers but also A listers like Captain America and Iron Man. Right now the MCU have no A lister and that's the problem.

[stripe]

4 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

Don’t think good reviews are going to help this it all. People are either on board or will just wait for streaming. There is no must see factor this. Plus the trailers have been a complete mess. James Gunn will definitely have two flops in a row with good reviews.

 

Even if Guardians only grosses 250M DOM and 500M WW it wouldnt be a flop. And it will gross more than that, so...

There is a difference between an underwhelming run and a flop.

[stripe]

41 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

 

The MCU became a phenomenon on the backs of Kevin Feige. Who right now seems to be in retirement mode. The MCU had B, C and D listers but also A listers like Captain America and Iron Man. Right now the MCU have no A lister and that's the problem.

 

Because Spiderman and Thor are not A listers... And some would argue that Strange and Captain Marvel are also in the same league.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

5 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Even if Guardians only grosses 250M DOM and 500M WW it wouldnt be a flop. And it will gross more than that, so...

There is a difference between an underwhelming run and a flop.

 

A flop is a movie that loses money. If the budget is $250m without marketing and it only grosses $500m it is a flop.

[thajdikt]

Iron Man and Captain America were not A-listers at all. They became it through the MCU. MCU and their actors made them A-listers. Nobody expect nerds (like me) gave a shit about them before they become popular in the MCU.