Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023

[Jeight]

Why exactly would it be fun?

[Maggie]

He likes to see Marvel fans suffer. lol 😁

[ZackM]

6 minutes ago, Jeight said:

Why exactly would it be fun?

Because performing exactly as expected is boring.  The more a film deviates from the expectation, positive or negative, the more fun it is to follow.

[Brainbug]

Big Breakouts and Big Epic Flops can produce the same kind of fun energy.

 

For example, the Justice League Opening Weekend Thread i fondly remember as well as the Solo Opening Weekend Thread. Imo, a positive epic perfomance is of course better for theaters and id personally like to see as many movies as possible beeing succesfull, but a truly epic bomb/underperformance can also be ... entertaining.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Re: The Spoiler Debate.

 

Surely there is a pretty gargantuan difference between

 

1) Being clear as to what the inciting incident in the plot of the movie and therefore the basis of the objectives/quest/mission/narrative is.

 

and 

 

2) Showing anything regarding the resolution of the objective/quest/mission/narrative.

 

It has never occurred to me that giving 1 constituted any kind of "spoiler". And it is utterly self-evident to me that 1 should be made clear by a decent trailer in most circumstances. 

 

2 is surely where "spoilers" kick in.

 

It's not being "pro spoilers" to expect to have an idea of what the inciting incident or the basis of the framework of the film is. "pro spoilers" to me means giving unnecessary details regarding the resolution of the plot or the obstacles faced.

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Because performing exactly as expected is boring.  The more a film deviates from the expectation, positive or negative, the more fun it is to follow.

 

In terms of deviation, even if this hits its current moderate scenarios, I don't think the average person is expecting this to collapse. People who follow the film industry, but not box office closely, likely see Antman as an anomaly, and expect Guardians to be a return to form.

 

I was looking at some numbers yesterday, and, during the first three phases of Marvel, there was only two instances of a direct sequel to a film doing worse than its predecessor domestically; Iron Man 2 and Avengers Age of Ultron. 

 

Then, phase 4 continued the trend with No Way Home, Doctor Strange and Thor all continued that pattern. All three saw jumps, even as reviews for some were mixed.

 

Then, Wakanda Forever and Antman are two in a row of not doing so. Guardians will be three unless something changes. Marvels likely is four. If you count Captain America 4 as a sequel to Civil War, then, high risk of five.

 

I know people are sick of the dialogue around whether Marvel is dead, but, it's only going to get louder if things play out as forecasted.

 

I listen to the Filmcast podcast, and this week they did their summer movie wager, where the hosts and guests all predict the top 10 grossing films this summer. Each one predicted Guardians as the top film. They're all aware of Antman, but, all feel confident that something like Guardians is likely safe.

 

I think the performance is going to catch people off guard who are conditioned to think that Marvel films only get bigger with each entry.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

 

 

Then, phase 4 continued the trend with No Way Home, Doctor Strange and Thor all continued that pattern. All three saw jumps, even as reviews for some were mixed.

 

Then, Wakanda Forever and Antman are two in a row of not doing so. Guardians will be three unless something changes. Marvels likely is four. If you count Captain America 4 as a sequel to Civil War, then, high risk of five.

 

 

This is all good faith stuff, but as a point of information while Thor Love and Thunder did jump domestically which was the trend you said it was broadly only in line with inflation and was seasoned by a very significant drop worldwide of 850 to 760. 

 

Did those on the podcast you mention class Mario as a Summer film. I'd take it very hard to take anyone seriously who thought, even before Mario came out, that Guardians 3 would get anywhere near it. Of course, they may class Mario as a Spring film.

 

But yeah,  I think this does have the potential to catch people off guard. Especially given the likelihood of one of the female skewing films going big (Lit Mermaid/Barbie), and how overdue we are for a huge breakout comedy.

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

This is all good faith stuff, but as a point of information while Thor Love and Thunder did jump domestically which was the trend you said it was broadly only in line with inflation and was seasoned by a very significant drop worldwide of 850 to 760. 

 

Did those on the podcast you mention class Mario as a Summer film. I'd take it very hard to take anyone seriously who thought, even before Mario came out, that Guardians 3 would get anywhere near it. Of course, they may class Mario as a Spring film.

 

But yeah,  I think this does have the potential to catch people off guard. Especially given the likelihood of one of the female skewing films going big (Lit Mermaid/Barbie), and how overdue we are for a huge breakout comedy.

 

They did talk about Mario, but, as you said, it's a spring film. They've done this for over a decade, with the start of summer being that first weekend in May except for when Marvel pushed up Infinity War and End Game up a week.

 

On my submission, I still have Guardians third, and I worry if the reaction is mixed in any way, it may fall further back.

 

As for Thor, yes, it got through barely, and helped by inflation (and very little competition for a summer period). But, it did get there.

 

Also in fairness, Black Panther was likely to never reach the domestic total of the first just by how much of a cultural event it was. It's kind of unfair how it's the start of a streak.

 

I think it speaks to how it may not be that Marvel is dieing, just that it was more of a bubble that popped. It's crazy that almost everything they did for a decade just kept on increasing. That's abnormal.

 

Even their two stumbles (Iron Man 2, Ultron) lead to questioning of their methods. Both were helmed by key filmmakers to Marvels success, and both never returned.

[thajdikt]

 

 

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Even their two stumbles (Iron Man 2, Ultron) lead to questioning of their methods. Both were helmed by key filmmakers to Marvels success, and both never returned.

 

 

Actually the more time goes on, the better that fast-tracking of Iron-Man 2 looks. 

 

It put pay to IM2 creatively by all accounts, but I really feel as through Phase 4 suffered not being able to do anything with momentum by having such a predetermined plan and not rushing a sequel for a liked property.

 

Surely based on response they would ideally have made something more of Yelena by now. Or Shang Chi. Or have taken Wanda and Agatha in a different direction post WandaVision.

 

Just maximise one of their properties and characters that actually were positively received rather than go through a pre-planned order and leaving characters in limbo/on the bench for ages at a time. 

[TwoMisfits]

29 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

 

Actually the more time goes on, the better that fast-tracking of Iron-Man 2 looks. 

 

It put pay to IM2 creatively by all accounts, but I really feel as through Phase 4 suffered not being able to do anything with momentum by having such a predetermined plan and not rushing a sequel for a liked property.

 

Surely based on response they would ideally have made something more of Yelena by now. Or Shang Chi. Or have taken Wanda and Agatha in a different direction post WandaVision.

 

Just maximise one of their properties and characters that actually were positively received rather than go through a pre-planned order and leaving characters in limbo/on the bench for ages at a time. 

 

Amen - they have too many working at one time, with no distinction of "who is for TV plots" and "who is for the big movie phase"...I would have paid full price D+ to have redone Dr Strange to leave Wanda out and gotten a Wandavision season 2 and 3 right now (since shows people follow do tend to have a season per year)...I'd do the same for a Hawkeye series, having now seen the 1st...I'm dying to see season 2 and 3.  Just let him be the tv hero with his new partner and his family...

 

But nothing on the horizon for either, and I'm gonna give up D+ this November, I think.  I need stuff I want to build up, and it seems to take so long for Disney to put up material I personally care about now that I don't have really young kids (so all that new material is worthless to me)...

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

 

Actually the more time goes on, the better that fast-tracking of Iron-Man 2 looks. 

 

It put pay to IM2 creatively by all accounts, but I really feel as through Phase 4 suffered not being able to do anything with momentum by having such a predetermined plan and not rushing a sequel for a liked property.

 

Surely based on response they would ideally have made something more of Yelena by now. Or Shang Chi. Or have taken Wanda and Agatha in a different direction post WandaVision.

 

Just maximise one of their properties and characters that actually were positively received rather than go through a pre-planned order and leaving characters in limbo/on the bench for ages at a time. 

 

Good post.

 

Although, the issues I most associate with Iron Man 2 is that it was one of the MCU films associated most with setting up other stories rather than being it's own story. Marvel seemed to learn from that for a while, but have fallen into the trap more recently as the universe gets too large.

 

The overall story around the build up of the MCU is so tragic. They became successful by bringing in people passionate about the projects, but due to its success, they were mandated to keep growing. That lead them to essentially turn the entire production into a machine that filtered out a lot of the flexibility and creativity.

 

Shang Chi is an interesting one. It's probably one of the most interesting characters they've developed post Endgame, but, yeah, who knows when we'll see him again.

 

During the Infinity Saga, once introduced, the major characters were never gone from theatres more than a couple of years at most.

 

 

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

This is all good faith stuff, but as a point of information while Thor Love and Thunder did jump domestically which was the trend you said it was broadly only in line with inflation and was seasoned by a very significant drop worldwide of 850 to 760. 

 

Did those on the podcast you mention class Mario as a Summer film. I'd take it very hard to take anyone seriously who thought, even before Mario came out, that Guardians 3 would get anywhere near it. Of course, they may class Mario as a Spring film.

 

But yeah,  I think this does have the potential to catch people off guard. Especially given the likelihood of one of the female skewing films going big (Lit Mermaid/Barbie), and how overdue we are for a huge breakout comedy.

Even worldwide is mostly driven by missing markets (China + Russia). Thor 4 sold 17M tickets in EU+UK versus 15M for Thor 3 and overall they're in the ballpark of each other when you use exchange rates + CPI as a ticket price inflation proxy WW and only look at common markets. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Shang Chi is an interesting one. It's probably one of the most interesting characters they've developed post Endgame, but, yeah, who knows when we'll see him again.

 

During the Infinity Saga, once introduced, the major characters were never gone from theatres more than a couple of years at most.

 

 

 

I think it's the ability to have the situational awareness they had with that IM2 scenario. Or even how they've played the Spider-Man card with Civil War.

 

As in have the flexibility to see the response to Pugh and put $80m aside to turn around a lower budget espionage Widow 2 straight away with her, Val, Harbour and maybe the Power Broker rather than expand and expand with Eternals.

 

Or see how well Shang-Chi was shaping up and break it into two movies - a martial arts movie that ends with the intro of Wenwu and a fantasy movie...just so they could turn around an 18 month sequel.

 

Instead of giving full priority to a BP2 that is leading to...? And a Love and Thunder that just sits in a pool alone. And Hawkeye, She-Hulk and Moon Knight which regardless of consideration of their quality are just standing there like lemons untethered to anything else.

 

As you say, the mandate to grow turning it into a machine prevents the possibility of flexibility and situational awareness.

 

Culminating in perhaps the biggest momonetum-less nonsense of all: Schrodinger's Blade.

[Saul Goodman]

 

[infamous5445]

Drax will always be a wasted opportunity in the MCU smh

[elzorro]

26 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Drax will always be a wasted opportunity in the MCU smh

He played his part perfectly, which was to be a comic relief. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 hours ago, Jeight said:

Why exactly would it be fun?

be interesting if Marvel reevaluates its whole future slate, kind of like Star Wars post SOLO

[scytheavatar]

10 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

 

Actually the more time goes on, the better that fast-tracking of Iron-Man 2 looks. 

 

It put pay to IM2 creatively by all accounts, but I really feel as through Phase 4 suffered not being able to do anything with momentum by having such a predetermined plan and not rushing a sequel for a liked property.

 

Surely based on response they would ideally have made something more of Yelena by now. Or Shang Chi. Or have taken Wanda and Agatha in a different direction post WandaVision.

 

Just maximise one of their properties and characters that actually were positively received rather than go through a pre-planned order and leaving characters in limbo/on the bench for ages at a time. 

 

The reality is that the most positivity received characters post Endgame are at best B list characters rather than C list characters like Shuri....... trying to make a Shang Chi 2 is basically Shazam 2 happening all over again. Shang Chi was just an ok MCU film. It was a cookie cutter MCU film that's reasonably well executed, that's enough to make it the best post Endgame MCU film. But is it enough to make it deserve a sequel? I don't think it is, and the exact same can be said about films like Shazam and the first Fantastic Beast. It is a bit delusional to pretend your Shang Chi/Yelena/Agatha are such great characters that they should be milked like cows and appear everywhere like Tony Stark.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, scytheavatar said:

 

The reality is that the most positivity received characters post Endgame are at best B list characters rather than C list characters like Shuri....... trying to make a Shang Chi 2 is basically Shazam 2 happening all over again. Shang Chi was just an ok MCU film. It was a cookie cutter MCU film that's reasonably well executed, that's enough to make it the best post Endgame MCU film. But is it enough to make it deserve a sequel? I don't think it is, and the exact same can be said about films like Shazam and the first Fantastic Beast. It is a bit delusional to pretend your Shang Chi/Yelena/Agatha are such great characters that they should be milked like cows and appear everywhere like Tony Stark.

I would argue that Shang Chi had a way better reception than Shazam 1 that always was treated like a good movie that is kinda irrelevant for the brand and too juvenile to have a big appeal outside younger demos

 

Shang Chi had a 3x multiplier despite an inflated holiday OW, made 432M without China and was released during a new wave of COVID new strain, and widely accepted as one of the best MCU efforts when it comes to present new characters 

 

I do think there´s room for a sequel to fail, but more because MCU is cracking overall then because the first movie didn´t leave a good impression, just like it´s about to happen with GOTG3 coming from 2 beloved and widely succesful movies

Edited April 21, 2023 by ThomasNicole