Fullbuster Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, George Parr said: I find the ones who challenge the hero psychologically tend to work better. Anytime the villain is so strong that he completely curb stomps the hero in the first meeting, you run into the issue of "how could the hero possibly win the next time around?". Way too often that ends with a cheap trick that doesn't really fit to how the villain was presented early on. Suddenly the villain is weaker than he was before, simply because the plot requires it. Sometimes you get lucky and it is a case of outsmarting the villain, or there is someone who turns on the villain and helps get rid of him, and in some scenarios it can also work when the hero wasn't really developed yet when the first meeting occured, but few movies are actually that clever. It's how things work in animes most of the time in that case: the hero meets the villain pretty early and gets crushed, and then realizes he needs to work hard to be much stronger, and that's exciting to watch. Obviously it'd be hard to do that with only 1 movie, that's why animes and TV shows have an advantage here. Edited March 17, 2018 by Fullbuster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 12/03/2018 at 1:55 PM, Juby said: Japan premier is also April 27th. Is this opens everywhere the same weekend? What is the Chinese release date? What about Peru, Russia, Romania and Lithuania? IMDb still states them as 3rd/4th May. EDIT: Romania is April 27th now, but China release date is not April 27th. It's May 4th Is the overseas/worldwide OW record still possible without China & Russia? That's IMDB guessing confidently right now. Still has yet to be confirmed whether that is the case. It is quite likely it will be May 4th, but China's SARFT has yet to confirm the date pretty sure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 These Chinese are such spoilsport Given it's such a big market thet need to allow movies to be released when the firm wants and not some random date! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 Chinese premiere - 11th May Worldwide OW record is not guaranteed anymore IMO. Peru and Russia still remain on May 3rd, but probably, as the rest of the world, will be change to April 25-27th soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belle Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 How different are exchanges rates now in early 2018 compared to May 2012 and May 2015? I know the euro grew stronger compared to 2015/2016 and that the dollar saw a decline last year and is set to continue this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 58 minutes ago, Belle said: How different are exchanges rates now in early 2018 compared to May 2012 and May 2015? I know the euro grew stronger compared to 2015/2016 and that the dollar saw a decline last year and is set to continue this year. Dollar is stronger now than it was in 2015 against Yuan, Pound, INR, etc but about the same it was in 2016 on average. Dollar is weaker against Euro however which will help grosses in EU. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Fail numbers for me are under 500 mill DOM and under 1B OS with this For now my guess is 235/575 DOM and 1,05 B OS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 billion OS. 56 million above AOU is not out of the question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Fail numbers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 14 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said: Fail numbers... Let's say disappointing numbers Edit: don't laugh at it, if it does similar numbers to Ultron, yes, it will be disappointing. Lots of money for Disney, sure. But disappointing Edited April 1, 2018 by peludo 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 20 hours ago, Belle said: How different are exchanges rates now in early 2018 compared to May 2012 and May 2015? I know the euro grew stronger compared to 2015/2016 and that the dollar saw a decline last year and is set to continue this year. On 12/1/2017 at 3:56 PM, MattW said: Avengers 1, 2 and Civil War adjusted for exchange rates to July 2017: Avengers - $895.5m - $699m Age of Ultron - $946.4m - $868m Civil War - $745.2m - $722m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 20 hours ago, peludo said: Let's say disappointing numbers Edit: don't laugh at it, if it does similar numbers to Ultron, yes, it will be disappointing. Lots of money for Disney, sure. But disappointing Some people laugh at this post and I do not get why. This film is being sold everywhere as the definitive event movie, the apotheosis of a 10 year process, the final of the most successful franchise ever, the second upcoming of Christ... I do not find logical to sell that this is the definitive film and later accept that figures of a mediocre film like Ultron are a success for it. A success for Disney? Sure. Impressive for people like us, BO nerds? Not even close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, peludo said: Some people laugh at this post and I do not get why. This film is being sold everywhere as the definitive event movie, the apotheosis of a 10 year process, the final of the most successful franchise ever, the second upcoming of Christ... I do not find logical to sell that this is the definitive film and later accept that figures of a mediocre film like Ultron are a success for it. A success for Disney? Sure. Impressive for people like us, BO nerds? Not even close. I think they forgot Ultron. This is even bigger than that. I don't think IW will go that low. I also can't tell if it is a disappointment if it does ultron number. BUt there will be lot of disappointment in the comments. And I'm talking beyond the usual posters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, Premium George said: I think they forgot Ultron. This is even bigger than that. I don't think IW will go that low. I also can't tell if it is a disappointment if it does ultron number. BUt there will be lot of disappointment in the comments. And I'm talking beyond the usual posters. If, for example, IW manages as it seems the second biggest opening in USA, I will be disappointed if it "just" makes high 400s. We have had +500m grossers during last 4 years. If IW is not able to reach that amount, it will be, at very least, a meh run (look that I am not expecting this to beat Black Panther, which exceeds any logic). Something like this has to be able to make at least what Rogue One or Beauty and the Beast have done recently. Concerning OS, the billion should be the minimum target. I know that this means a high demanding target but, for God sake, this is the f**king Avengers, the film that has already set records in trailer views, presales, ... This is not a normal film, so we should not expect normal numbers. 500 DOM and 1 billion OS should be the floor. If we can not expect numbers like these from this movie, I do not know from which one we can expect it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 minute ago, peludo said: If, for example, IW manages as it seems the second biggest opening in USA, I will be disappointed if it "just" makes high 400s. We have had +500m grossers during last 4 years. If IW is not able to reach that amount, it will be, at very least, a meh run (look that I am not expecting this to beat Black Panther, which exceeds any logic). Something like this has to be able to make at least what Rogue One or Beauty and the Beast have done recently. Concerning OS, the billion should be the minimum target. I know that this means a high demanding target but, for God sake, this is the f**king Avengers, the film that has already set records in trailer views, presales, ... This is not a normal film, so we should not expect normal numbers. 500 DOM and 1 billion OS should be the floor. If we can not expect numbers like these from this movie, I do not know from which one we can expect it. I agree with you on dom front. All the trailer views, insane hype will make everybody believe this is a mega event. On OS front I think a billion will be good. Which will account to $1.5b, which does sound little more than meh. Damn, this movie is too much hyped up. To think JW reached more than this without much hype. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, peludo said: Some people laugh at this post and I do not get why. This film is being sold everywhere as the definitive event movie, the apotheosis of a 10 year process, the final of the most successful franchise ever, the second upcoming of Christ... I do not find logical to sell that this is the definitive film and later accept that figures of a mediocre film like Ultron are a success for it. A success for Disney? Sure. Impressive for people like us, BO nerds? Not even close. As someone expecting a lot from this movie I obviously want it to beat Ultron, it'd be disappointing otherwise even if it's very profitable in the end. However you must take into account that exchange rates are worse than in 2014 in many territories such as Brazil..in Brazil Ultron is still the highest-grossing movie of all time so beating it won't be easy and the ER is far worse so beating its USD numbers ($47m) is quite a tall order. That's an example among many others.. Edited April 2, 2018 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Fullbuster said: As someone expecting a lot from this movie I obviously want it to beat Ultron, it'd be disappointing otherwise even if it's very profitable in the end. However you must take into account that exchange rates are worse than in 2014 in many territories such as Brazil..in Brazil Ultron is still the highest-grossing movie of all time so beating it won't be easy and the ER is far worse so beating its USD numbers ($47m) is quite a tall order. That's an example among many others.. Ultron is from 2015, not 2014 I have calculated what would have done Ultron with today ER, and although you are right that the overall result is worse than in 2015, it is not as accused as one could imagine. With today ER, Ultron would have done $21m less than in 2015 ($925m today against $946m in 2015). The main markets are: Country: 2015 vs 2018 China: 240.1 vs 237.2 South Korea: 78.3 vs 79.8 UK: 76.6 vs 71.4 Mexico: 50.9 vs 42.5 Brazil: 47.9 vs 43.2 Russia: 34.3 vs 30.6 France: 34.3 vs 39.3 Germany: 31.2 vs 35.7 Australia: 31.0 vs 30.8 Japan: 26.4 vs 30.5 Venezuela: 18.5 vs 11.7 Taiwan: 18.4 vs 19.6 Italy: 18.1 vs 20.7 Hong Kong: 17.2 vs 17.2 India: 16.7 vs 16.3 Philippines: 14.1 vs 11.9 Spain: 13.6 vs 15.0 Malaysia: 13.4 vs 12.6 Better grosses: Eurozone, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea Worse grosses: UK (Brexit), Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, Philippines But those $21m should be easily compensated with 3 years inflation and expansion of certain markets. It is just a 2.2% of the original OS gross. Inflation has been way higher during these 3 years nearly everywhere. There is no excuse to not outgross Ultron. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 12:15 PM, peludo said: Let's say disappointing numbers Edit: don't laugh at it, if it does similar numbers to Ultron, yes, it will be disappointing. Lots of money for Disney, sure. But disappointing If Avengers IW does not reach 1B os is not a great result but disappointing? Not for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: If Avengers IW does not reach 1B os is not a great result but disappointing? Not for me That is your choice and I will not try to convince you For me it would be disappointing, meh, boring, ... call it as you want. Considering the hype that exists according to all I read in the IW thread, to make the same than a mediocre film like Ultron it would probably mean that IW is a mediocre film too, what would already probably mean a disappointment in terms of quality of the film. And this is the end of the current MCU, the EVENT film. Considering MCU is on fire right now, I would not understand anything lower or equal to Ultron, which considering ERs and inflation, probably adjusts to over 1 billion OS. If this is really a different film, we should expect different numbers. Plain and simple. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 (edited) 33 minutes ago, peludo said: That is your choice and I will not try to convince you For me it would be disappointing, meh, boring, ... call it as you want. Considering the hype that exists according to all I read in the IW thread, to make the same than a mediocre film like Ultron it would probably mean that IW is a mediocre film too, what would already probably mean a disappointment in terms of quality of the film. And this is the end of the current MCU, the EVENT film. Considering MCU is on fire right now, I would not understand anything lower or equal to Ultron, which considering ERs and inflation, probably adjusts to over 1 billion OS. If this is really a different film, we should expect different numbers. Plain and simple. I'm not the guy who thinks IW breaks all records, I'm happy if he surpasses Ultron WW yes, this film is an event (similar to Harry Potter 7) but are you sure it will easily pass the first Avengers (2012)? For the Avengers 2. Let's see the following: Ultron increases WW (thanks for the Chinese market) 1.4B Furious to decrease 1.2BSW decreases by 1.3B 😬 Edited April 2, 2018 by fabiopazzo2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...