The Mad Titan Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Looks like we’re headed for the biggest OD ever in Russia. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said: Looks like we’re headed for the biggest OD ever in Russia. Yep probably, I think open over 18-19M but we will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dandeak2000 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Jeez, how high can this thing go overseas? This is a stunning performance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Mike Hunt said: Jeez, how high can this thing go overseas? This is a stunning performance dare i say.. infinity. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Mike Hunt said: Jeez, how high can this thing go overseas? This is a stunning performance Over Age of Ultron's Worldwide total (1,405B) is possible, maybe even TA1/FF7. It very much depends on Chinas Performance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dandeak2000 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Brainbug said: Over Age of Ultron's Worldwide total (1,405B) is possible, maybe even TA1/FF7. It very much depends on Chinas Performance. China presales seem very strong for opening weekend at least. Let's hope the legs get it over $450M?/$500M?. The @POTUSpredicts an opening of $230-260M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfb Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) I thought it would without a question drop today but now I'm questioning it. With A1's so many new openers on May 3rd, 2012, it's tough to make a direct comp like how I did for Wednesday. So, A1 actually increased on Thursday due to Russia OD. AIW has Russia OD too, so cancels out. However A1 also had ODs in these countries: UAE, Bahrain, Czech Republic, Croatia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine. All of them are small markets but there are just so many of them that I thought they contributed quite well to A1's Thu increase along with Russia too. But, AIW dropped so little in SK today (like, almost flat), increased 1.1m$ on Japan's Wed and increased about 800k$ in Russia OD compared to A1's Russia OD that I'm beginning to wonder if staying almost flat and dare I say even increasing is possible. Even if no other country increases over Wed, maybe Japan + Russia increases (should be about 5.9m$ over yesterday for AIW) cover the drops. And if I overestimated those small markets' input, maybe it even increases like A1. Those small market ODs really make it tough to throw out a range today unlike yesterday. Unless we have total ODs of those countries for A1, I can't even gauge whether staying flat would be "good" or "expected" or "excellent" for AIW's OS Thursday. It feels like it'd be a really great hold but can't be sure without having directly comparable numbers. Thanks for the A1 numbers btw, couldn't find them online earlier. 5 hours ago, Sam said: Did some digging through old thread and found that The Avengers OS Thursday: 22.9M, with 4M coming from OD Russia. Meaning 18.9M from other countries, an 8.25% drop from its OS Wednesday. Using the same drop for IW would put its Thursday at $29.5M sans Russia. Anyone have ideas what Russia OD is heading towards? Edited May 3, 2018 by gfb updated a mistake in numbers 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dandeak2000 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Pessemistic $180M China 2x multi = $360M $15M Russia 2.4x multi = $36M $257.7M Domestic 2.4x multi = $618.5M $382.8M Overseas -minus China/Russia 2.5x multi = $957M $1,971.5M total Realistic $210M China 2.2x multi = $462M $17.5M Russia 2.5x multi = $43.8M $257.7M Dom 2.55x multi = $657.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.6x multi = $995.3M $2,158.2M total Optimistic $250M China 2.4x multi = $600M $19M Russia 2.6x multi = $49.4M $257.7M DOM 2.7x multi = $695.8M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.7x multi = $1,033.6M $2,378.8M Spoiler Super Optimistic $260M China 2.6x multi (major breakout) = $676M $19M Russia 2.8x multi = $53.2M $257.7M DOM 2.9x multi (great legs) = $747.3M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.8x multi = $1,071.8M $2,548.3M The Superest Avatar Passing Amount of Optimistic (e.g. never going to happen type) $275M China 3x multi = $825M $20M Russia 3x multi = $60M $257.7M DOM 3x multi = $773.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 3x multi = $1,148.4M $2,806.5M total. New worldwide King, but at what cost? (Also, this would really put James Cameron on the Superhero train, then Avengers 5,6,7,8 and 9 would be filmed back to back with a budget of $1.5B combined and delayed 10 years) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Given how the domestic run has been following Avengers rather closely, I'd say $700 million is more likely than not. I would put the optimistic ceiling for domestic at over $800 million. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said: Pessemistic $180M China 2x multi = $360M $15M Russia 2.4x multi = $36M $257.7M Domestic 2.4x multi = $618.5M $382.8M Overseas -minus China/Russia 2.5x multi = $957M $1,971.5M total Realistic $210M China 2.2x multi = $462M $17.5M Russia 2.5x multi = $43.8M $257.7M Dom 2.55x multi = $657.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.6x multi = $995.3M $2,158.2M total Optimistic $250M China 2.4x multi = $600M $19M Russia 2.6x multi = $49.4M $257.7M DOM 2.7x multi = $695.8M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.7x multi = $1,033.6M $2,378.8M Reveal hidden contents Super Optimistic $260M China 2.6x multi (major breakout) = $676M $19M Russia 2.8x multi = $53.2M $257.7M DOM 2.9x multi (great legs) = $747.3M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.8x multi = $1,071.8M $2,548.3M The Superest Avatar Passing Amount of Optimistic (e.g. never going to happen type) $275M China 3x multi = $825M $20M Russia 3x multi = $60M $257.7M DOM 3x multi = $773.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 3x multi = $1,148.4M $2,806.5M total. New worldwide King, but at what cost? (Also, this would really put James Cameron on the Superhero train, then Avengers 5,6,7,8 and 9 would be filmed back to back with a budget of $1.5B combined and delayed 10 years) If you think it's easy for IW to achieve a 2x multi, you are being very optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) Avengers IW is the biggest film all time in Indonesia!? Edit: not today but probably tomorrow will be the biggest film all time in Indonesia after 1 month... ah no... only 1 week Edited May 3, 2018 by fabiopazzo2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 AIW WW > BP WW + AMW WW ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said: AIW WW > BP WW + AMW WW ? AIW (2.15)=BP (1.35)+AMW (800) Perfectly balanced, as all things should be. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 (edited) Reading through the old Avengers OS thread was a real experience. That movie amazing BO performance really came outta nowhere. Lots of records broken, and numbers kept increasing from early estimates. Anyway, I’m not very good at projections, so all I can do is digging through that thread and provide y’all (who are better at it than me) with some numbers from The Avengers OS box office. Hopefully they will be helpful for IW projections/predictions or comparisons. This post gonna be a bit long, sorry guys! FIRST WEEK: - Opening weekend Wed-Sun: 185.1M (39 territories) - OW Fri-Sun: 149.1M - 33.1M Monday - 42.3M Tuesday/Labor Day (41 territories, opening in Singapore and Thailand) - 20.6M Wednesday - 22.9M Thursday (including Russia OD) - OS Total after 9 days in release: 304M SECOND WEEK: - Second weekend Fri-Sun: 156.1M (that meant -15.7% from 5-day OW and +4.7% from FSS OW ) (52 territories, basically all the major markets except for Japan, which opened in August) Some context is needed for the huge number up there: • 17.9M OW Russia (including OD Thursday) • 18M OW China (China OD was Sat so it’s a 2-day OW) • 12.5M 2nd weekend in South Korea (+16% from SK 3-day OW and -5% from 5-day OW) • Similar to the incredible hold from SK, some notable great 2nd weekend drops for TA: Germany (sub-20%), UK (-40% from 3-day OW), Netherlands (-2%), Colombia (-15%), The only reported 2nd weekend daily number was Friday estimate, which was 30.3M (this figure includes Russia). OS Total after 2nd weekend is 447.4M Starting from this point, any comparisons between TA and IW will be super wonky because China got thrown into the mix, but here are the numbers for TA1 anyway: - 28.4M Monday - 24.3M Tuesday - 17.7M Wednesday - 15.5M Thursday So 533.3M OS total up to there. Phew, that took long! Gonna continue with 3rd week/weekend numbers if needed. Edited May 4, 2018 by Sam 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sam said: Reading through the old Avengers OS thread was a real experience. That movie amazing BO performance really came outta nowhere. Lots of records broken, and numbers kept increasing from early estimates. Anyway, I’m not very good at projections, so all I can do is digging through that thread and provide y’all (who are better at it than me) with some numbers from The Avengers OS box office. Hopefully they will be helpful for IW projections/predictions or comparisons. This post gonna be a bit long, sorry guys! FIRST WEEK: - Opening weekend Wed-Sun: 185.1M (39 territories) - OW Fri-Sun: 149.1M - 33.1M Monday - 42.3M Tuesday/Labor Day (41 territories, opening in Singapore and Thailand) - 20.6M Wednesday - 22.9M Thursday (including Russia OD) - OS Total after 9 days in release: 304M SECOND WEEK: - Second weekend Fri-Sun: 156.1M (that meant -15.7% from 5-day OW and +4.7% from FSS OW ) (52 territories, basically all the major markets except for Japan, which opened in August) Some context is needed for the huge number up there: • 17.9M OW Russia (including OD Thursday) • 18M OW China (China OD was Sat so it’s a 2-day OW) • 12.5M 2nd weekend in South Korea (+16% from SK 3-day OW and -5% from 5-day OW) • Similar to the incredible hold from SK, some notable great 2nd weekend drops for TA: Germany (sub-20%), UK (-40% from 3-day OW), Netherlands (-2%), Colombia (-15%), The only reported 2nd weekend daily number was Friday estimate, which was 30.3M (this figure includes Russia). OS Total after 2nd weekend is 447.4M Starting from this point, any comparisons between TA and IW will be super wonky because China got thrown into the mix, but here are the numbers for TA1 anyway: - 28.4M Monday - 24.3M Tuesday - 17.7M Wednesday - 15.5M Thursday So 533.3M OS total up to there. Phew, that took long! Gonna continue with 3rd week/weekend numbers if needed. FYI that 2nd WE total isn't just Fri-Sun its Wed, Thu of the countries that normally open films on a Wed-Thu (majority normal opening is Thu), So for example because Japan normal opening day is Sat only Sat-Sun are in that figure WE figure Friday isn't included. International works on the 1st weekend is everything from previews+films opening date in a country(regardless of normal opening day or not) through Sunday. Now even though the OWe includes previews and non-standard opening day a lot of countries doesn't include those figures as part of their local Owe (for example UK does, Australia doesn't) and records are set based on how each country does it . From 2nd week onwards the weekend total is the total of all days by country from what is their standard opening day through Sunday (so a mix of 5,4,3,2 day figures). In International there is no concept of a week figure (except of cause at the individual country/market level).China is an exception to the rule. Edited May 4, 2018 by Rthanos 8 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Rthanos said: FYI that 2nd WE total isn't just Fri-Sun its Wed, Thu of the countries that normally open films on a Wed-Thu (majority normal opening is Thu), So for example because Japan normal opening day is Sat only Sat-Sun are in that figure WE figure Friday isn't included. International works on the 1st weekend is everything from previews+films opening date in a country(regardless of normal opening day or not) through Sunday. Now even though the OWe includes previews and non-standard opening day a lot of countries doesn't include those figures as part of their local Owe (for example UK does, Australia doesn't) and records are set based on how each country does it . From 2nd week onwards the weekend total is the total of all days by country from their standard opening day through Sunday. In International there is no concept of a week figure (except of cause at the individual country/market level) Wow, this is really helpful to know. Thank you so much. I literally just read through the OS Avengers BO thread and pulled numbers from the posts lol. Overseas BO is just so tricky to do comparisons and projections on considering how many countries involved and the variations in standard BO reportings set by each. Thanks again. You’re the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justvision Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Rthanos said: FYI that 2nd WE total isn't just Fri-Sun its Wed, Thu of the countries that normally open films on a Wed-Thu (majority normal opening is Thu), So for example because Japan normal opening day is Sat only Sat-Sun are in that figure WE figure Friday isn't included. International works on the 1st weekend is everything from previews+films opening date in a country(regardless of normal opening day or not) through Sunday. Now even though the OWe includes previews and non-standard opening day a lot of countries doesn't include those figures as part of their local Owe (for example UK does, Australia doesn't) and records are set based on how each country does it . From 2nd week onwards the weekend total is the total of all days by country from what is their standard opening day through Sunday (so a mix of 5,4,3,2 day figures). In International there is no concept of a week figure (except of cause at the individual country/market level).China is an exception to the rule. This type of informative post should be cross-posted to some sticky posts such as for ease of reference. Putting International BO Numbers in Perspective Edited May 4, 2018 by justvision 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 8 hours ago, Mike Hunt said: Pessemistic $180M China 2x multi = $360M $15M Russia 2.4x multi = $36M $257.7M Domestic 2.4x multi = $618.5M $382.8M Overseas -minus China/Russia 2.5x multi = $957M $1,971.5M total Realistic $210M China 2.2x multi = $462M $17.5M Russia 2.5x multi = $43.8M $257.7M Dom 2.55x multi = $657.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.6x multi = $995.3M $2,158.2M total Optimistic $250M China 2.4x multi = $600M $19M Russia 2.6x multi = $49.4M $257.7M DOM 2.7x multi = $695.8M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.7x multi = $1,033.6M $2,378.8M Reveal hidden contents Super Optimistic $260M China 2.6x multi (major breakout) = $676M $19M Russia 2.8x multi = $53.2M $257.7M DOM 2.9x multi (great legs) = $747.3M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 2.8x multi = $1,071.8M $2,548.3M The Superest Avatar Passing Amount of Optimistic (e.g. never going to happen type) $275M China 3x multi = $825M $20M Russia 3x multi = $60M $257.7M DOM 3x multi = $773.1M $382.8M OS-Ch/Ru 3x multi = $1,148.4M $2,806.5M total. New worldwide King, but at what cost? (Also, this would really put James Cameron on the Superhero train, then Avengers 5,6,7,8 and 9 would be filmed back to back with a budget of $1.5B combined and delayed 10 years) That's not "super optimistic"! With great legs (over x3) this might go over $800 mln domestic. But Your China numbers seems unrealistic. My current prediction: DOM: $715 mln (but I think even $805 mln is possible) OS: $1,585 mld WW: $2,3 mld Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 So we're looking at 1800m ww - china? China is really cheat code only a few chosen films can tap into. Rip starwars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oMeriMombatti Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Avengers - Infinity War Has Fantastic First Week Avengers - Infinity War had a fantastic first week as it grossed 156 crore nett in its first week. The film was off to a flyer on day one and has held up superbly over the weekdays. The drop came on Wednesday but is due to lower ticket pricing and coming off partial holidays. The film is fantastic across the board with even circuits like Bihar and CP Berar where Hollywood films do not do that well putting up huge numbers. Bihar is at 3.25 crore nett after seven days and is already the highest total ever for a Hollywood release. The first week numbers are higher than Padmaavat (143.75 crore) which was the biggest first week for all the Hindi films. The Hindi version alone of Avengers - Infinity War grossed 62 crore nett apprx which is an unbelievable number for a Hollywood dubbed film. https://www.boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=3903 156cr nett ~207cr gross ~$31M. Hopefully it sustains well in the 2nd weekend as the only competiton it has is in 2 states in South India, rest nothing at all. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...