AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[pepsa]

20 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Somehow, these late legs is there to be expected, given that the marketplace is so unrefreshing now especially in the downfall of solo....and Chinese has to go cinema somehow. 

Well not really honestly, I mean all the new movies that doubled it on last friday are only on 55% of IW daillies atm. I mean its mostly because it's well liked. I know that there isn't much competition, but still it lost 50% showtimes on the weekend and managed a 38% drop on sat and sun (no holidays). I mean the local hit is also doing an extremely good job, it's over most CMB already.

Edited June 6, 2018 by pepsa

[Thrylos 7]

59 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

He’s just saying that the DOM 2nd weekend was low relative to first weekday numbers, and the China total is low relative to the insane presales (record breaking presales led to a record low presale multi). Those two factors combined look to lead to a very near miss of TFA. All reasonable points, it’s not like anyone is claiming that IW numbers are bad overall  

Yeah I am tired of replying to people who forget their reading comprehension just to make a stupid remark or whatever. Had enough of this during IW second u.s weekend, now after over a month it’s simply boring. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

29 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Yeah I am tired of replying to people who forget their reading comprehension just to make a stupid remark or whatever. Had enough of this during IW second u.s weekend, now after over a month it’s simply boring. 

Now you get how we feel about your comments

[DeeCee]

Moderation 

 

Firstly, I should be sleeping. Secondly, let’s relax and settle down. 

 

Good night. 

[Taruseth]

22 hours ago, pepsa said:

So now that we have DOM Mon I will try to make a ‘decent’ guess.

IW Mon:  $1.164m, Tue: (+32%, $1.536m), Wed : (-29%, $1.060m), Thu : (-5%,  $1.007m) = $4.767m

WE: +81%, +62%, -29.5%: $1.822m + $2.952m + $2.081 = $6.855m

Total DOM week:  $11.622m. More details in here:

  Reveal hidden contents

The increases are bassed on the trends that Guardians followed and the trends that IW followed the last weeks. With Thu taking a bigger hit because of steeper competition, but not to big because Ocean8 targets women. That said, GG2 also dropped 600 theaters, IW will drop closer to 500 I think. So a tad bit better weekend increases.

 

China week:

IW Mon:  7.8m, Tue: 8.45m, Wed (PS up 1%, but more people out of school) 8.79m, Thu 9m.

WE: Fri: 12.3m, Sat: 22m, Sun: 16.5m. Week TOT: 84.84m =>  $13.246m

  Reveal hidden contents

Wed and Thu based on PS, weekend is based on POTUS projections using slightly better numbers on Thu.

 

OS week: This means all days that not include weekends from OS-China markets (This might be M,T/M,T,W/ or the US like week M/T/W/TH).

Last week $3.9m, because this means no new competition it will follow the last week WE drop: 23%, but a tad harsher (UK) so about 30%: $2.75m.

Good news, it won't have a stike in Brasil, that hurted it's WD last week.

WE: JW2 opens everywere exept Brasil, Col, Aust, Mex, Arg, and some smaller markets. So IW will probably fall 60%:  $4.45m.

 

Totals after this weekend:

DOM: $654.622m 3.7 times ($6.855m) Same as GG2, IW has been holding a bit better but JW2 still to come. With I2 DF this will be higher. 

CHI:   $369.546m $11m-$17m based on POTUS est

OS-C: $973.2m $4.45*3 (no big new competition)

 

WW: $1.9974B after this WE

WW TOT: 2.0501B

DOM: 680m

CHI: $383.55m

OS-C: $986.55m

 

 

It's going to be really close to TFA.

Slightly higher Dom+Ch: $1070M vs. $1.060.821.363 for TFA

Slightly lower Os-Ch: $990M vs. $1.007.402.261 for TFA

WW: $2060M vs. $2.068.223.624 for TFA

[PPZVGOS]

46 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

It's going to be really close to TFA.

Slightly higher Dom+Ch: $1070M vs. $1.060.821.363 for TFA

Slightly lower Os-Ch: $990M vs. $1.007.402.261 for TFA

WW: $2060M vs. $2.068.223.624 for TFA

Even though AIW & TFA have made virtually identical WW totals, it is quite astonishing to observe the regional variations between the two. TFA is vastly bigger in the rich world, whereas AIW totally obliterates Star Wars VII everywhere else. In Europe & Japan especially, the advantage of Star Wars VII over Avengers III, is ginormous. 

 

My preliminary explanation for this phenomenon is that this is probably down to the average age of the US/EU/JAP (especially the latter two) being way higher than in the rest of the world. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. 

 

Also, I can't help but thinking how much more AIW would have made if the FX cycle was in any other phase. Could we be talking Avatar numbers? 

[pepsa]

Well I don't know, SH aren't that popular under people of my age in Belgium (I am 22 years old). They find it very repetitive and not so interesting. Not everyone but it's very comon to hear those things. 

[KP1025]

55 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Even though AIW & TFA have made virtually identical WW totals, it is quite astonishing to observe the regional variations between the two. TFA is vastly bigger in the rich world, whereas AIW totally obliterates Star Wars VII everywhere else. In Europe & Japan especially, the advantage of Star Wars VII over Avengers III, is ginormous. 

 

My preliminary explanation for this phenomenon is that this is probably down to the average age of the US/EU/JAP (especially the latter two) being way higher than in the rest of the world. But I am sure there are other reasons as well. 

 

Also, I can't help but thinking how much more AIW would have made if the FX cycle was in any other phase. Could we be talking Avatar numbers? 

 

Great observation. Just for fun, I decided to see what the maximum run for a film this decade would look like taking TFA's domestic total and the biggest OS markets between TFA and IW. I ended up with a calculation of $1.670 billion OS (give or take a few million dollars). Combine with TFA's $936.7 million domestic total, and you'd end up with $2.608 billion WW. Would surely be ahead of Avatar if the ER was the same as Dec. 2009/early 2010. 

Edited June 6, 2018 by KP1025

[raulbalarezo]

Somebody needs to update the thread title 

[Asyulus]

28 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Somebody needs to update the thread title 

It will be updated when it hits $2 billion by next Sunday.

[Asyulus]

The Friday number today in China is pathethic. Will not hit $2 billion by next Sunday.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

The Friday number today in China is pathethic. Will not hit $2 billion by next Sunday.

 

how pathetic can it be? Lol

[Asyulus]

 

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

how pathetic can it be? Lol

Only 8% increase from Thursday. Fastest to 2 billion record is dead.

[kswiston]

Wasn't last weekend boosted by a holiday in China? 

 

Infinity War's total in China is already past where people were figuring that it would end up after that second weekend. 

 

EDIT:

 

2 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Friday Est - June 8th,2018
Black Water 17.6M/17.86M OD

Toilet Hero 15.3M OD

Happiness Is Coming 14.6M OD

How Long Will I Love U 12M/783.6M, -15% 
Infinity War 8.6M/2315m, +8% 
Doraemon the Movie 2018: 2.94M/178M, -24%
A Quite Place 0.77M/213.2M, -65%
Perfetti sconosciuti 0.7M/46.9M  -61%
Ranger Solo 0.5M/103M, -66%
Rampage 0.52M/999.56M  -43%

Seems like Infinity War was the only film to increase from Thursday, and that everything else was way down. Given the fact that the openers didn't really make much, I take it that Thursday had some special circumstances, and you were mis-projecting things based on that. 

Edited June 8, 2018 by kswiston

[Cooper Legion]

The Friday number from China was perfectly solid, and we’re talking about a difference of like under half a million dollars. It probably won’t be the difference between 2B or not.

[pepsa]

Nah IW lost 55% of it's screens on Friday, screens for Sat are up 15% back to about 52% of screens of thursday. Will do well over the next few days. It might be second in gross, again on sunday. 

 

Screen loss is the biggest reason why it didn't increase more. I mean it increased 8% friday with PS that were 31% lower than PS for Thursday. 

Thursday 06/07 (US date) gross at a sertain time:

3pm: 4.02m

4pm: 4.48m

 

Friday: 

3pm: 2.85m down 31% compared to Thu

4pm: 3.20m down 28.5% compared to Thu

 

It recovered nicely. 

Edited June 8, 2018 by pepsa

[pepsa]

29 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

The Friday number today in China is pathethic. Will not hit $2 billion by next Sunday.

Why do you say such thing with out looking at the context? 

[Asyulus]

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Why do you say such thing with out looking at the context? 

Oh, the theater drop. And it was holiday last week. Nevermind.

 

Around $2b by Sunday is still likelihood.

[pepsa]

Just now, Asyulus said:

Oh, the theater drop. And it was holiday last week. Nevermind.

 

Around $2b by Sunday is still likelihood.

Well it never was, I did the math 4 pages ago and it would fall 3m short. With IW loosing more screens than anitcipated in China we had muted friday increase. (Normaly 40%) but as you can see other movies dropped instead of increasing. But that means china will do $2m than the expected $13.5m week. So that would mean 1.995B by sunday. 

But honestly we have to wait for China's sat, if it can rebound nicely China might still get a $12m week. But I would be cautious right now.

[Rebeccas]

if this doesn't cross $2b by sunday, are we gonna have to wait until like Wednesday or something. It would be way better to hit it by sunday cause the headlines will be bigger.

Edited June 8, 2018 by Rebeccas