AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Legion Again]

Highly optimistic take is 990+385+685 for 2.06. Could get a lot closer than I thought it would in the middle of the run.

[boxofficefreak]

USING CHINA AT $353,784,095           

INFINITY OS-C = $969,340,948

                                             China@ $356.25

AVENGER LEGS - $996,209 M     $993.705M

ULTRON LEGS- $993,887 M           $991.36

 

Notes-

 WEEKLY GROSSES  OS-C 

05/21 - 05/27-      $32,978,136

 05/28- 06/03 -       $16,235,761

 

*Starting to see more volatility in ER for two previous films. 

[Purple Minion]

 

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, Purple Minion said:

 

So we have $1966.1m after this WE, we only need $33.9m, I had hoped on $0.2m more dom.

[Sam]

the-numbers.com has its OS total at 1.332B, where’s the extra $10M coming from lol.

Edited June 4, 2018 by Sam

[Quigley]

33 minutes ago, Sam said:

the-numbers.com has its OS total at 1.332B, where’s the extra $10M coming from lol.

the-numbers.com is not a reliable source

[Purple Minion]

From Mojo:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$643,006,211	32.7%
+ Foreign:	$1,323,125,043	67.3%
= Worldwide:	$1,966,131,254

 

So $33,868,746 to go for the coveted 2 billion mark.

[expensiveho]

Any markets where IW isn't the biggest MCU movie? (Neither $, Lc or admissions)

[Wadey Wilsoney]

30 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

Any markets where IW isn't the biggest MCU movie? (Neither $, Lc or admissions)

I can't give you numbers, but I'm pretty sure BP reigns supreme in a lot of African territories. Biggest movie of all time here in SA.

[Juby]

14 hours ago, Quigley said:

Last weekend, OS–C was $14.46M.

This weekend is about $11.1M ($14.2M in China). The drop is 23%.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W22&id=marvel0518.htm

 

OS–C total is $966M. Last week it was $951M. That means $3.9M during the weekdays. A very likely harsh drop will occur next weekend due to the release of Jurassic World 2. China, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Japan are the major territories where Jurassic World 2 won't open next weekend.

 

Range for final OS–C total is $983–990M I think (calculated using constant drops of 40% for the high number and 50% for the low number).

 

Very bad, horrible worst-case scenario is above $2B: 980 (OS) + 363 (C) + 660 (NA). We are looking at around $2.035B for its final WW total, unless it holds well against Jurassic World 2, in which (unlikely) case it could give TFA a run for its money.

 

DOM is $643 mln already. Your worse-case scenario is impossible-case scenario. 

 

the-numbers.com is not a reliable source

 

Same as Mojo.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Juby

[Lordmandeep]

I think if it is rereleased before IW it would likely beat TFA then. 

 

However I noticed films that make a lot overseas continue to make a few extra random million dollars for weeks overseas so we shall see.. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Taruseth]

11 hours ago, expensiveho said:

Any markets where IW isn't the biggest MCU movie? (Neither $, Lc or admissions)

DOM and as Wadey said Africa, in South Africa BP ~8.4M and IW ~5.4M (it's not just South Africa, but also some other countries about that, but most of the revenue (>90%) is from the country South Africa itself.

Australia in $ (Avengers $54.4M and IW $45.8M but as of last weekend IW is ahead in Lc, actually it's the fourth biggest film ever in Lc (behind Avatar, TFA and Titanic), no idea about adm.)

Argentina in $ (Avengers $17.3M and IW $15.8M)

Japan in $ (Avengers $45.3M and IW $33.3M but ahead in Lc)

New Zealand in $ (Avengers $7.1M and IW $6.8M but ahead in Lc)

Russia in $ (Avengers $43.7M and IW $33.7M but ahead in admissions and Lc)

Venezuela ($18.5M for AoU and IW $3M but ahead in admissions and Lc)

 

If you count in Spider-Man 1-3 in adm. Spider-Man 1&2 are also bigger in Germany, Japan (Spider-Man 3 too) and France (Spider-Man 3 too).

 

I might have missed some, but in most of Asia it's the biggest (as it's often the biggest film of all time).

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

11 hours ago, Wadey Wilsoney said:

I can't give you numbers, but I'm pretty sure BP reigns supreme in a lot of African territories. Biggest movie of all time here in SA.

I used to think that Black panther made 40m+ in south Africa based BOM's figure for months, only to realise that is south korea.....

[expensiveho]

21 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

DOM and as Wadey said Africa, in South Africa BP ~8.4M and IW ~5.4M (it's not just South Africa, but also some other countries about that, but most of the revenue (>90%) is from the country South Africa itself.

Australia in $ (Avengers $54.4M and IW $45.8M but as of last weekend IW is ahead in Lc, actually it's the fourth biggest film ever in Lc (behind Avatar, TFA and Titanic), no idea about adm.)

Argentina in $ (Avengers $17.3M and IW $15.8M)

Japan in $ (Avengers $45.3M and IW $33.3M but ahead in Lc)

New Zealand in $ (Avengers $7.1M and IW $6.8M but ahead in Lc)

Russia in $ (Avengers $43.7M and IW $33.7M but ahead in admissions and Lc)

Venezuela ($18.5M for AoU and IW $3M but ahead in admissions and Lc)

 

If you count in Spider-Man 1-3 in adm. Spider-Man 1&2 are also bigger in Germany, Japan (Spider-Man 3 too) and France (Spider-Man 3 too).

 

I might have missed some, but in most of Asia it's the biggest (as it's often the biggest film of all time).

 

 

 

Thank you. So it's MCU #1 (in some way) everywhere except DOM and Africa 

 

 

(Didn't IW break OW record in S.A. and West Africa? Thought it had a chance there, though BP surely opened some doors)

[Taruseth]

31 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

Thank you. So it's MCU #1 (in some way) everywhere except DOM and Africa 

 

 

(Didn't IW break OW record in S.A. and West Africa? Thought it had a chance there, though BP surely opened some doors)

As far as I know yes.

In Argentina I think it passed Avengers this weekend in Admissions (both roughly 2.6M adm.)

And yeah IW is the first ever $2M opening in South Africa.

No idea about West Africa.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Taruseth

[box office]

AIW got extended in china till july 9th

[Fake]

357M China and 966M OS. Looks like 15-20M left in tank for both. Should finish with 375M and 985M respectively.

 

DOM looking to finish with 675M.

 

So it will end up with 2.03-2.04B. Not bad. Not bad at all!

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, Fake said:

357M China and 966M OS. Looks like 15-20M left in tank for both. Should finish with 375M and 985M respectively.

 

DOM looking to finish with 675M.

 

So it will end up with 2.03-2.04B. Not bad. Not bad at all!

Once we get the monday number for Dom I will make detailed guess at what seems possible.

[Rebeccas]

37 minutes ago, Fake said:

357M China and 966M OS. Looks like 15-20M left in tank for both. Should finish with 375M and 985M respectively.

 

DOM looking to finish with 675M.

 

So it will end up with 2.03-2.04B. Not bad. Not bad at all!

Looks like Disney will make a few bucks off this movie.

[pepsa]

So now that we have DOM Mon I will try to make a ‘decent’ guess.

IW Mon:  $1.164m, Tue: (+32%, $1.536m), Wed : (-29%, $1.060m), Thu : (-5%,  $1.007m) = $4.767m

WE: +81%, +62%, -29.5%: $1.822m + $2.952m + $2.081 = $6.855m

Total DOM week:  $11.622m. More details in here:

Spoiler

The increases are bassed on the trends that Guardians followed and the trends that IW followed the last weeks. With Thu taking a bigger hit because of steeper competition, but not to big because Ocean8 targets women. That said, GG2 also dropped 600 theaters, IW will drop closer to 500 I think. So a tad bit better weekend increases.

 

China week:

IW Mon:  7.8m, Tue: 8.45m, Wed (PS up 1%, but more people out of school) 8.79m, Thu 9m.

WE: Fri: 12.3m, Sat: 22m, Sun: 16.5m. Week TOT: 84.84m =>  $13.246m

Spoiler

Wed and Thu based on PS, weekend is based on POTUS projections using slightly better numbers on Thu.

 

OS week: This means all days that not include weekends from OS-China markets (This might be M,T/M,T,W/ or the US like week M/T/W/TH).

Last week $3.9m, because this means no new competition it will follow the last week WE drop: 23%, but a tad harsher (UK) so about 30%: $2.75m.

Good news, it won't have a stike in Brasil, that hurted it's WD last week.

WE: JW2 opens everywere exept Brasil, Col, Aust, Mex, Arg, and some smaller markets. So IW will probably fall 60%:  $4.45m.

 

Totals after this weekend:

DOM: $654.622m 3.7 times ($6.855m) Same as GG2, IW has been holding a bit better but JW2 still to come. With I2 DF this will be higher. 

CHI:   $369.546m $11m-$17m based on POTUS est

OS-C: $973.2m $4.45*3 (no big new competition)

 

WW: $1.9974B after this WE

WW TOT: 2.0501B

DOM: 680m

CHI: $383.55m

OS-C: $986.55m

 

 

Edited June 5, 2018 by pepsa