AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Valonqar]

CW's problem wasn't that heroes fought each other. It was that their fighting each other was just a small part of several other stories (Bucky's struggle with TWS program, assassination of T'Chaka, Tony's regret over Sokovia,etc) and basically boiled down to parking lot brawl comedy. So much for "civil war". Most overblown movie title ever.

 

OTOH, IW is epic. The scale is big. the destruction is big. the villain is a genuine threat. So nobody is fooled that the war is actually a parking lot brawl again. It delivers on its promise. 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Valonqar

[NamakFiskKa]

After scrapping data from BO Mojo since the last half hour i used Episode 7' $1.13 Bill cume as a viable OS comp (tho it overperformed in Europe and Japan but still) and put it in perspective of Ultron' performance in almost all the market to come up with seemingly far fetched to reasonable total for IW.

 

Made a spreadsheet which you can use to compare Ultron/Eps 7 and added column for if IW show increase in different markets since Ultron and close the gap between Ultron and Eps7' cume for IW.

 

**The IW calculation assumes that it will increase/remain same from Ultron in all the market...

Quote

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KPdALw5JSWjnGo7PGYP0Xfx5mIjOKX4gwOvOA7mcGoo/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

 

Also you can use the other sheet for Ultron vs IW comp for the coming weeks like this 

 

 

 

[peludo]

Applying yersterday ERs and taking as reference the ER of the release date in each country. Figures are million dollars.

 

Country: Avengers vs Ultron

China: 86.1 vs 235.8

UK: 69.4 vs 70.7

South Korea: 53.1 vs 78.3

Mexico: 42.6 vs 40.7

Australia: 39.8 vs 30.3

France: 34.8 vs 38.9

Brazil: 34.3 vs 41.0

Japan: 32.9 vs 29.7

Germany: 28.4 vs 35.3

Russia: 20.6 vs 28.4

Italy: 20.3 vs 20.5

Taiwan: 20.3 vs 19.6

Spain: 18.6 vs 14.8

Hong Kong: 12.3 vs 16.9 

Philippines: 11.7 vs 11.9

Singapore: 10.4 vs 10.0

India: 9.9 vs 15.8

Malaysia: 8.5 vs 12.4

Indonesia: 7.9 vs N/A

Thailand 7.7 vs 9.2

Chile: 7.5 vs 7.0

Peru: 7.0 vs 6.8

Colombia: 7.0 vs 8.5

UAE: 6.7 vs N/A

New Zealand: 6.2 vs 4.5

Netherlands: 6.1 vs 6.2

Sweden: 6.0 vs 5.3

Venezuela: 5.7 vs 11.7

Ecuador: 5.4 vs 5.6

Denmark: 4.7 vs 5.2

Norway: 4.1 vs 4.7

Argentina: 3.8 vs 4.1

Belgium: 3.7 vs 3.8

Poland: 3.0 vs 4.1

Austria: 2.9 vs 4.6

South Africa: 2.9 vs 3.2

Israel: 2.6 vs 2.2

Greece: 2.4 vs 1.9

Portugal: 2.3 vs 2.0

Bolivia: 1.9 vs 2.3

Turkey: 1.8 vs 3.8

Czech Republic: 1.6 vs 2.4

Hungary: 1.5 vs 2.1

Finland: 1.4 vs 1.5

Bulgaria: 0.686 vs 0.726

Ukraine: 0.678 vs 1.6

Iceland: 0.636 vs 0.511

Lebanon: 0.535 vs 0.543

Slovakia: 0.414 vs 0.639

Croatia: 0.364 vs 0.386

Uruguay: 0.361 vs 0.425

Egypt: 0.312 vs 0.525

Slovenia: 0.152 vs 0.133

Serbia: 0.147 vs 0.212

 

It is not adjusted by inflation, but these data should help to put better into perspective IW results.

 

With yersterday ERs:

Avengers would have done $714m

Age of Ultron would have done $911m

Edited April 26, 2018 by peludo

[Taruseth]

8 minutes ago, peludo said:

Applying yersterday ERs and taking as reference the ER of the release date in each country. Figures are million dollars.

 

Country: Avengers vs Ultron

China: 86.1 vs 235.8

UK: 69.4 vs 70.7

South Korea: 53.1 vs 78.3

Mexico: 42.6 vs 40.7

Australia: 39.8 vs 30.3

France: 34.8 vs 38.9

Brazil: 34.3 vs 41.0

Japan: 32.9 vs 29.7

Germany: 28.4 vs 35.3

Russia: 20.6 vs 28.4

Italy: 20.3 vs 20.5

Taiwan: 20.3 vs 19.6

Spain: 18.6 vs 14.8

Hong Kong: 12.3 vs 16.9 

Philippines: 11.7 vs 11.9

Singapore: 10.4 vs 10.0

India: 9.9 vs 15.8

Malaysia: 8.5 vs 12.4

Indonesia: 7.9 vs N/A

Thailand 7.7 vs 9.2

Chile: 7.5 vs 7.0

Peru: 7.0 vs 6.8

Colombia: 7.0 vs 8.5

UAE: 6.7 vs 

New Zealand: 6.2 vs 4.5

Netherlands: 6.1 vs 6.2

Sweden: 6.0 vs 5.3

Venezuela: 5.7 vs 11.7

Ecuador: 5.4 vs 5.6

Denmark: 4.7 vs 5.2

Norway: 4.1 vs 4.7

Argentina: 3.8 vs 4.1

Belgium: 3.7 vs 3.8

Poland: 3.0 vs 4.1

Austria: 2.9 vs 4.6

South Africa: 2.9 vs 3.2

Israel: 2.6 vs 2.2

Greece: 2.4 vs 1.9

Portugal: 2.3 vs 2.0

Bolivia: 1.9 vs 2.3

Turkey: 1.8 vs 3.8

Czech Republic: 1.6 vs 2.4

Hungary: 1.5 vs 2.1

Finland: 1.4 vs 1.5

Bulgaria: 0.686 vs 0.726

Ukraine: 0.678 vs 1.6

Iceland: 0.636 vs 0.511

Lebanon: 0.535 vs 0.543

Slovakia: 0.414 vs 0.639

Croatia: 0.364 vs 0.386

Uruguay: 0.361 vs 0.425

Egypt: 0.312 vs 0.525

Slovenia: 0.152 vs 0.133

Serbia: 0.147 vs 0.212

 

It is not adjusted by inflation, but these data should help to put better into perspective IW results.

 

With yersterday ERs:

Avengers would have done $714m

Age of Ultron would have done $911m

Thanks.

 

Avengers had good exchange rates. Especially in Brazil and Mexico and Russia.

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Thanks.

 

Avengers had good exchange rates. Especially in Brazil and Mexico and Russia.

And in Australia, Argentina, UK or Japan. It would lose today more than $10m in each of these markets. Argentina is in fact the worst case: 78% lower.

[Lordmandeep]

What are markets where IW will decline from Ultron or Avengers by a material amount? 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, peludo said:

And in Australia, Argentina, UK or Japan. It would lose today more than $10m in each of these markets. Argentina is in fact the worst case: 78% lower.

Not even Venezuela is worse?

 

78% that is extreme.

 

At least the € hasn't lost much since 2012 (okay more like regained a significant part of the loss)

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, peludo said:

Ultron biggest markets:

China: 240.1

South Korea: 78.3

UK: 76.6

Mexico: 50.9

Brazil: 47.9

Russia: 34.3

France: 34.3

Germany: 31.2

Australia: 31.0

Japan: 26.4

Venezuela: 18.5

Taiwan: 18.4

Italy: 18.1

Hong Kong: 17.2

India: 16.7

Philippines: 14.1

Spain: 13.6

Malaysia: 13.4

Colombia: 10.0

Singapore: 9.9

Argentina: 9.3

Thailand: 8.9

Peru: 7.0

Chile: 6.9

Turkey: 5.9

Ecuador: 5.6

Netherlands: 5.5

Vietnam: 5.3

Sweden: 5.2

 

These markets add $860m, 91% of Ultron OS total. How much do you expect to increase in the main markets in order to reach that amount? I insist that I am not denying the obvious enormous potential of the film. Just curiousity.

 

20 minutes ago, peludo said:

Applying yersterday ERs and taking as reference the ER of the release date in each country. Figures are million dollars.

 

Country: Avengers vs Ultron

China: 86.1 vs 235.8

UK: 69.4 vs 70.7

South Korea: 53.1 vs 78.3

Mexico: 42.6 vs 40.7

Australia: 39.8 vs 30.3

France: 34.8 vs 38.9

Brazil: 34.3 vs 41.0

Japan: 32.9 vs 29.7

Germany: 28.4 vs 35.3

Russia: 20.6 vs 28.4

Italy: 20.3 vs 20.5

Taiwan: 20.3 vs 19.6

Spain: 18.6 vs 14.8

Hong Kong: 12.3 vs 16.9 

Philippines: 11.7 vs 11.9

Singapore: 10.4 vs 10.0

India: 9.9 vs 15.8

Malaysia: 8.5 vs 12.4

Indonesia: 7.9 vs N/A

Thailand 7.7 vs 9.2

Chile: 7.5 vs 7.0

Peru: 7.0 vs 6.8

Colombia: 7.0 vs 8.5

UAE: 6.7 vs N/A

New Zealand: 6.2 vs 4.5

Netherlands: 6.1 vs 6.2

Sweden: 6.0 vs 5.3

Venezuela: 5.7 vs 11.7

Ecuador: 5.4 vs 5.6

Denmark: 4.7 vs 5.2

Norway: 4.1 vs 4.7

Argentina: 3.8 vs 4.1

Belgium: 3.7 vs 3.8

Poland: 3.0 vs 4.1

Austria: 2.9 vs 4.6

South Africa: 2.9 vs 3.2

Israel: 2.6 vs 2.2

Greece: 2.4 vs 1.9

Portugal: 2.3 vs 2.0

Bolivia: 1.9 vs 2.3

Turkey: 1.8 vs 3.8

Czech Republic: 1.6 vs 2.4

Hungary: 1.5 vs 2.1

Finland: 1.4 vs 1.5

Bulgaria: 0.686 vs 0.726

Ukraine: 0.678 vs 1.6

Iceland: 0.636 vs 0.511

Lebanon: 0.535 vs 0.543

Slovakia: 0.414 vs 0.639

Croatia: 0.364 vs 0.386

Uruguay: 0.361 vs 0.425

Egypt: 0.312 vs 0.525

Slovenia: 0.152 vs 0.133

Serbia: 0.147 vs 0.212

 

It is not adjusted by inflation, but these data should help to put better into perspective IW results.

 

With yersterday ERs:

Avengers would have done $714m

Age of Ultron would have done $911m

 

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

What are markets where IW will decline from Ultron or Avengers by a material amount? 

Based on the information from peludo (thanks for that)

I would guess: Venezuela and Argentina

And from Avengers in Japan and Venezuela and Argentina.

 

In most others I think it won't be by much if at all.

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

What are markets where IW will decline from Ultron or Avengers by a material amount? 

If you mean without applying ER conversion, there are some candidates among biggest original grosses:

 

Avengers

UK: 80 (maybe)

Brazil: 63 (not even close)

Mexico: 61 (not even close)

Australia: 54 (IMO, too high, but who knows)

Japan: 45 (too high)

Russia: 43 (not even close)

Argentina: 17 (78% drop in ER)

Venezuela: 13 (too high)

 

Ultron

Mexico: 50 (who knows)

Brazil: 47 (who knows)

Venezuela: 18 (hahaha)

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Not even Venezuela is worse?

 

78% that is extreme.

 

At least the € hasn't lost much since 2012 (okay more like regained a significant part of the loss)

About an 8%

[Lordmandeep]

So how much loss from those markets is expected?

 

Seems like LA, Japan and Russia will be the big losses. 

[salvador-232]

In Chile WOM seems quite good, but I remain doubtful that it can have a major breakthrough to GA not usually interested in SH movies. I still think that Finding Dory's admissions (1,5 million) and the 10th all time spot is the target. I will wait to the second weekend drop to have a better picture, although is hard not to improve on AoU 56% drop that is the worst I've seen for any blockbuster. 

 

If it can defy the traditional frontloadness of SH movies and have legs more like the original Avengers then it has a chance to match its gross despite worse ER. (The original Avengers did 9,2M and AoU 6,9M, current ER is almost the same as Ultron) 

Edited April 26, 2018 by salvador-232

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

So how much loss from those markets is expected?

 

Seems like LA, Japan and Russia will be the big losses. 

Japan had $45m for TA and $26m for AOU. Due to ER, it will decrease from TA but increase from AOU. 

 

It should be about $30m, benefitting from Golden Week and also from Spider-Man's appearing. (SMH did $25m)

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

So how much loss from those markets is expected?

 

Seems like LA, Japan and Russia will be the big losses. 

Talking about Ultron, ER in Japan is better actually than in 2015. Both Mexico and Brazil could compensate with a bigger attendance. Venezuela and Argentina have a deeper problem with the ER, but their absolute figures are not so big, so the impact is not so important for the OS figure. Same applies to Russia. It loses 6 million since Ultron. It is big, but not THAT big. And maybe more attendance and higher prices compansate what Ultron did there 3 years ago. Anyway, China should compensate without any help, and maybe widely, the loss because ER.

 

Overall, Ultron would gross $911m today. That is the amount that IW has to gross to match what Ultron did without inflation (of course, these are approximate data. I have done it with an excel and BOM figures. It is not a too conscientious method :P)

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[Belle]

6 hours ago, pepsa said:

1B os is locked, but 1.1B is the floor with these numbers. 

I wouldn't say that just yet. There is no telling how frontloaded this movie will be. Especially with these massive opening numbers.

[raulbalarezo]

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

13December2018

Edited December 13, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Stewart]

9 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

Anybody got any comps?

[raulbalarezo]

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2018 by raulbalarezo