AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[pepsa]

1B os is locked, but 1.1B is the floor with these numbers. 

[Zamor]

Third biggest OD ever in Italy

 

€ 2.944.589 and 386.315 adm

[peludo]

1 billion OS seems quite likely, but I prefer to be cautious about talking about 1.1b or even 1.2b. This should be more frontloaded than other MCU films.

[bladels]

2 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Thailand market is 3 times bigger as Vietnam?

Movie going is still very new in VN, give it time.

We have new OW/total record nearly every year

[Lordmandeep]

18 minutes ago, peludo said:

1 billion OS seems quite likely, but I prefer to be cautious about talking about 1.1b or even 1.2b. This should be more frontloaded than other MCU films.

Think it be less frontloaded then civil war though.

[John Rambo]

PS in India are record breaking. Biggest OD for a Hollywood is pretty much certain  

 

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

PS in India are record breaking. Biggest OD for a Hollywood is pretty much certain  

 

[John Rambo]

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

What does that signify 

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, John Rambo said:

What does that signify 

The biggest opening day in India  is 🔒 

[John Rambo]

4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

The biggest opening day in India  is 🔒 

Haha yes  

[Thrylos 7]

45 minutes ago, peludo said:

1 billion OS seems quite likely, but I prefer to be cautious about talking about 1.1b or even 1.2b. This should be more frontloaded than other MCU films.

No it shouldn’t, and it will easily be over 1.2 billion  with China leading the charge. What’s with this change of narrative from “its doesn’t feel like an event, won’t break any records” to “it won’t have legs”. It will both break opening records and have great legs cause it’s a spectacle and the GA loves those. If TFA can get to 1.1 billion os this is definately passing it.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Thailand market is 3 times bigger as Vietnam?

the big is is double the one from Vietnam, so it is possible. 

(Not that fully correlate, but I think it gives a better idea than the number of people)

BOM says that the highest grossing countries for Avengers were:

China: $86,300,000

UK: $80,563,081

Brazil: $63,904,807

Mexiko: $61,748,523

Australia: $54,385,465

SK: $50,683,851

Japan: $45,256,010

Russia: $43,677,418

France: $37,765,919

Germany: $30,828,359

Italy: $22,012,517

Spain: $20,110,212

Taiwan: $20,100,000

That are for the Top 10 (up until Ger) $555,113,433 (so 62%)

 

for Age of Ultron:

China: $240,110,000 (Up $153,810,000)

SK: $78,286,828 (Up $27,602,977)

UK: $76,623,201 (Down $3,939,880)

Mexiko: $50,490,433 (Down $11,258,090)

Brazil: $47,862,465 (Down $16,042,342)

Russia: $34,319,424 (Down $9,357,994)

France: $34,270,887 (Down $3,495,032)

Germany: $31,193,932 (Up $365,573)

Australia: $30,969,152 (Down $23,416,313)

Japan: $26,373,434 (Down $18,882,576)

That are $650,499,756 (so 68,7% of the OS gross for the Top 10)

This will only increased OS because of China, without China it would have lost $100M!

 

What will be the big markets for IW?

Something like

China 225Mio

SK: 80Mio

UK: 80Mio

Mexiko: 60Mio 

Brazil: 60Mio

Russia: 40Mio

France: 40Mio

Australia: 40Mio

Germany: 35Mio

Japan: 30Mio

 

That are 690Mio so with based on the other something around 1 to 1.1B seems likely

 

 

[bladels]

Theaters in Vietnam are still packed AF even though it's not holiday like yesterday.

You need to get ticket at least half a day in advance. A lot of people have to go home because of this (buying tickets in advance is still unusual in Vietnam)

Theaters near me keep adding weird showtimes like 23h55, 0h05, 0h15... to satisfy demand

[Taruseth]

52 minutes ago, Zamor said:

Third biggest OD ever in Italy

 

€ 2.944.589 and 386.315 adm

That's high,

but an incredible low ticket-price 7,6€

 

I doubt it will have the third biggest OD in Germany.

 

After admissions it most likely won't be one of the TOP 100 O-Weekends or TOP 50 for €....

No idea about OD though.

 

Biggest MCU opening is possible though, needs to beat Guardians two for that (750K admissions)

 

[Apollo2xx]

20 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

the big is is double the one from Vietnam, so it is possible. 

(Not that fully correlate, but I think it gives a better idea than the number of people)

BOM says that the highest grossing countries for Avengers were:

China: $86,300,000

UK: $80,563,081

Brazil: $63,904,807

Mexiko: $61,748,523

Australia: $54,385,465

SK: $50,683,851

Japan: $45,256,010

Russia: $43,677,418

France: $37,765,919

Germany: $30,828,359

Italy: $22,012,517

Spain: $20,110,212

Taiwan: $20,100,000

That are for the Top 10 (up until Ger) $555,113,433 (so 62%)

 

for Age of Ultron:

China: $240,110,000 (Up $153,810,000)

SK: $78,286,828 (Up $27,602,977)

UK: $76,623,201 (Down $3,939,880)

Mexiko: $50,490,433 (Down $11,258,090)

Brazil: $47,862,465 (Down $16,042,342)

Russia: $34,319,424 (Down $9,357,994)

France: $34,270,887 (Down $3,495,032)

Germany: $31,193,932 (Up $365,573)

Australia: $30,969,152 (Down $23,416,313)

Japan: $26,373,434 (Down $18,882,576)

That are $650,499,756 (so 68,7% of the OS gross for the Top 10)

This will only increased OS because of China, without China it would have lost $100M!

 

What will be the big markets for IW?

Something like

China 225Mio

SK: 80Mio

UK: 80Mio

Mexiko: 60Mio 

Brazil: 60Mio

Russia: 40Mio

France: 40Mio

Australia: 40Mio

Germany: 35Mio

Japan: 30Mio

 

That are 690Mio so with based on the other something around 1 to 1.1B seems likely

 

 

60 million in Mexico is impossible. Coco was a phenomenon with incredible legs and it "only" grossed 57 million.

Also 60 million in Brazil is completely impossible with ER. 45 million maximum.

30 million in Japan seems unlikely too 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Apollo2xx

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

60 million in Mexico is impossible. Coco was a phenomenon with incredible legs and it "only" grossed 57 million.

Also 60 million in Brazil is completely impossible with ER. 45 million maximum.

30 million in Japan seems unlikely too 

That $225 million China number is too low. I think it'll go above $250 million.

[pepsa]

8 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

60 million in Mexico is impossible. Coco was a phenomenon with incredible legs and it "only" grossed 57 million.

Also 60 million in Brazil is completely impossible with ER. 45 million maximum.

30 million in Japan seems unlikely too 

 

45M isn't the max, it will do that. But no way it will do 60M

[bladels]

32 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

the big is is double the one from Vietnam, so it is possible. 

(Not that fully correlate, but I think it gives a better idea than the number of people)

BOM says that the highest grossing countries for Avengers were:

China: $86,300,000

UK: $80,563,081

Brazil: $63,904,807

Mexiko: $61,748,523

Australia: $54,385,465

SK: $50,683,851

Japan: $45,256,010

Russia: $43,677,418

France: $37,765,919

Germany: $30,828,359

Italy: $22,012,517

Spain: $20,110,212

Taiwan: $20,100,000

That are for the Top 10 (up until Ger) $555,113,433 (so 62%)

 

for Age of Ultron:

China: $240,110,000 (Up $153,810,000)

SK: $78,286,828 (Up $27,602,977)

UK: $76,623,201 (Down $3,939,880)

Mexiko: $50,490,433 (Down $11,258,090)

Brazil: $47,862,465 (Down $16,042,342)

Russia: $34,319,424 (Down $9,357,994)

France: $34,270,887 (Down $3,495,032)

Germany: $31,193,932 (Up $365,573)

Australia: $30,969,152 (Down $23,416,313)

Japan: $26,373,434 (Down $18,882,576)

That are $650,499,756 (so 68,7% of the OS gross for the Top 10)

This will only increased OS because of China, without China it would have lost $100M!

 

What will be the big markets for IW?

Something like

China 225Mio

SK: 80Mio

UK: 80Mio

Mexiko: 60Mio 

Brazil: 60Mio

Russia: 40Mio

France: 40Mio

Australia: 40Mio

Germany: 35Mio

Japan: 30Mio

 

That are 690Mio so with based on the other something around 1 to 1.1B seems likely

 

 

Higher for China and SK

Lower for Mexico and Brazil

[peludo]

35 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No it shouldn’t, and it will easily be over 1.2 billion  with China leading the charge. What’s with this change of narrative from “its doesn’t feel like an event, won’t break any records” to “it won’t have legs”. It will both break opening records and have great legs cause it’s a spectacle and the GA loves those. If TFA can get to 1.1 billion os this is definately passing it.

I do not deny the potential after first OD data, but it is needed a deeper analysis than the mere "GA is going to eat this". We need to know where is it getting that extra $254m relative to Ultron to reach "easily" $1.2b.

 

Ultron biggest markets:

China: 240.1

South Korea: 78.3

UK: 76.6

Mexico: 50.9

Brazil: 47.9

Russia: 34.3

France: 34.3

Germany: 31.2

Australia: 31.0

Japan: 26.4

Venezuela: 18.5

Taiwan: 18.4

Italy: 18.1

Hong Kong: 17.2

India: 16.7

Philippines: 14.1

Spain: 13.6

Malaysia: 13.4

Colombia: 10.0

Singapore: 9.9

Argentina: 9.3

Thailand: 8.9

Peru: 7.0

Chile: 6.9

Turkey: 5.9

Ecuador: 5.6

Netherlands: 5.5

Vietnam: 5.3

Sweden: 5.2

 

These markets add $860m, 91% of Ultron OS total. How much do you expect to increase in the main markets in order to reach that amount? I insist that I am not denying the obvious enormous potential of the film. Just curiousity.

 

The only "easy" way to reach those levels is to get a big increase in Europe, where CBMs are, for the moment, far of the limits of those markets. Asia and LA can get records, but how much can increase relative to previous entries, which already set records? There is not so much room growth.

 

Of course, if it explodes in China and it rises to Furious level (400 million), the debate will be over, but that is still a big if. And if China jumps "only" 50-60 million, where will come the other $200m from? I do not see so easy.

 

For the moment, I keep my 1.05-1.1b prediction.

Edited April 26, 2018 by peludo

[Taruseth]

16 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

60 million in Mexico is impossible. Coco was a phenomenon with incredible legs and it "only" grossed 57 million.

Also 60 million in Brazil is completely impossible with ER. 45 million maximum.

30 million in Japan seems unlikely too 

You are right, forgot that ER are pretty shitty right now.

Some in the Japan thread said 30M is possible (Spider-Man is basically the only draw there).

 

So adjusting Mexico to 50M and Brazil to 45Mio we would get a total of 665M which would mean 967M to 1.072B

6 minutes ago, bladels said:

Higher for China and SK

Lower for Mexico and Brazil

You ceartain? (No idea about China, could go either way) but big OD doesn't always mean high gross in the end for SK (Or most countries)