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Alli

Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

By Alli, in Numbers and Data

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Well lets hope all three break-out. I don't exactly wish ill on any film unless it's a Christian flick or something. 

❌❤️4️⃣???

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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, trifle said:

C_1Iiq4UMAA7ert.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/numeroboxoffice/status/863926510142373890

Snatched beat A:C on Sunday and A:C only just beat GOTG2.

 

A:C (AUD899,000) went from almost 3x Snatched (AUD333,000) on opening day to being behind on the Sunday. (Granted it was Mother's Day)

 

Not even my ticket on Sunday could help A:C. 

 

 

Edited by DeeCee
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aabattery Global Phenomenon

aabattery

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

Snatched beat A:C on Sunday and A:C only just beat GOTG2.

 

A:C (AUD899,000) went from almost 3x Snatched (AUD333,000) on opening day to being behind on the Sunday. (Granted it was Mother's Day)

 

 

 

I wonder if GOTG will beat it next weekend in Australia. Looks like it has a good shot at it.

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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

I wonder if GOTG will beat it next weekend in Australia. Looks like it has a good shot at it.

I doubt it.  I expect A:C to be over AUD2m and GOTG2 to be under AUD2m.  King Arthur and John Wick 2 open this weekend.  Although I've checked with my source at eONE and they're only expecting 3 or 4 people at most to see JW2.

 

I can't find a single mention of John Wick 2 over the last week.

 

https://twitter.com/eOneANZ

 

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

I doubt it.  I expect A:C to be over AUD2m and GOTG2 to be under AUD2m.  King Arthur and John Wick 2 open this weekend.  Although I've checked with my source at eONE and they're only expecting 3 or 4 people at most to see JW2.

 

eOne isn't distributing John Wick 2 in Australia/NZ anymore. The distribution switched last month, obviously eOne won't expect too many people

 



SYDNEY and SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 23, 2017 /CNW/ -- Reflecting the continued expansion of their partnership, Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF.A, LGF.B), a premier next generation global content leader, and Canal+ Group's Studiocanal have signed a long term output agreement under which Studiocanal will distribute films from Lionsgate's Summit Entertainment label in Australia and New Zealand. The announcement was made today by Elizabeth Trotman, Studiocanal CEO for Australia and New Zealand, and Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chairman Patrick Wachsberger and International COO Andrew Kramer.  

The new output agreement will encompass films from Lionsgate's Summit Entertainment label including the second installment of the blockbuster action franchise, John Wick: Chapter Two; The Shack, based on the best-selling novel and starring Sam Worthington and Academy Award® winner Octavia Spencer; and the upcoming Robin Hood, Otto Bathurst's contemporary retelling of the classic legend teaming Jamie Foxx and Taron Egerton. Other titles included in the deal are the action thriller Granite Mountain, featuring a star-studded cast of Josh Brolin, Jennifer Connelly, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges and Taylor Kitsch; and the crime thriller with a sci-fi twist, Kin, starring Jack Reynor, Academy Award® nominee James Franco and Zoë Kravitz, among others.

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aabattery Global Phenomenon

aabattery

Posted
Posted
Just now, grim22 said:

 

eOne isn't distributing John Wick 2 in Australia/NZ anymore. The distribution switched last month, obviously eOne won't expect too many people

 

 

 

 

Damn right.

 

Fuck eOne.

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

Weekend actual predictions (with reasoning)

 

1. GOTG2 – Right now, Sunday is projected to be up 14.3% from Friday.  I am bumping this up to 20%, giving it a 29.1% drop from Saturday.  63.94M weekend, up 1.5% from estimates.

 

2. Snatched – on Mother’s Day last year, Mothers Day, the film with Julia Roberts, increased to a PTA of 1,800.  Using this average for Snatched gives a Saturday to Sunday drop of 2.3%.  Two year ago, Hot Pursuit dropped 2.2% on Sunday, so this one feels right.  17.75 weekend, up 1.4% from estimates.

 

3. King Arthur – back in 2006, Poseidon only dropped 22.9%.  this was the last time Calendar dates lined up and Mothers Day was Sunday May 14th.  I am going to be nice to King Arthur and match its Friday PSA of 1,121 on Sunday.  This would bring a 24.8% drop.  However, lukewarm WOM won’t guarantee this to match the real Friday number.  The Saturday jump is already weaker than Gods of Egypt, Great Wall, and Kong.  How did this cost 75M more than Ben-Hur?  14.97 weekend, up 1.8% from estimates.

 

4.  Fate of the Furious – this one looks a little high.  Furious 7 had a Mother’s Day that was 11.5% that from Friday.  Also, last weekend, F8 has a Sunday that was 9.4% up from Friday.  Giving Fate of the Furious a $500 PTA on Sunday is up a fair 11.4% from Friday.  (estimate is $527).  My projection then gives it a 33.6% drop from Saturday and a 5.22M weekend, down 1.5% from estimates.

 

5.  The Boss Baby – The estimate looks pretty fair.  It is up 67% from Friday and that is slightly higher than Zootopia from last year.  However, I see this one just doing a little bit better than its estimate.  Back in 2006, The Wild and Ice Age 2 each had jumps from Friday at around 85%.  A $600 PTA (up from $555 est.) gives it a 80.7% jump from Friday and a 13.5% drop from Saturday.  I predict a weekend of 4.73M, up 2.8% from estimates.

 

6. Beauty and the Beast – This one is tricky.  It has double feature drive ins with GOTG and that can sometimes cause a 60% drop on Sundays when dealing with huge grosses.  But BATB is still on a lot of screens with a general high Sunday demand and that should offset this drop.  Last weekend, Sunday matched Friday.  This week it is estimated to be up 15.2% from Friday.  If there was no double features, I think BATB would increase on Mother’s Day Sunday or hold flat from Saturdays 86.9% increase.  I am going to call it at 50% up from Friday’s number.  That gives BATB a 19.7% drop on Sunday from Saturday and a weekend of 4.19M, up 8.5% from estimates.

 

7. How to Be a Latin Lover – It is already expected to increase 14.4% from Saturday.  I am going to double Fridays gross which would give it a 20% increase from Saturday.  Do not be surprised if it goes even higher.  3.82 weekend, up 1.9% from estimates.

 

8.  Lowriders – I have no idea how this should perform on Mother’s Day Sunday.  It is estimated to be down 10%.  I will give it a fair 25% decrease from Saturday and a weekend of 2.295M, down about 5% from estimates.

 

9.  The Circle – The estimated Sunday PTA is at $220, down 4% from Friday’s $230.  This might hold up slightly better than the 40% estimated drop on Sunday.  Giving it a drop of exactly 1/3 from Saturday gives it a $244 PTA and a 1.79M weekend, up 2.9% from estimates.

 

10.  Baahubali – The estimate looks fair.  I will leave it as is.  It is down 29.5% from Saturday which matches last week’s decrease of 29.8%.  From what I have seen, Indian movies seem unaffected by any American holidays or any other calendar interference.  It is up 31.8% from Friday which is better than the 28.1% of last week, so let’s call this weekend estimate of 1.55M the minimum.

 

11.  Gifted – Gifted is at a 1.37M estimate, but this one could rise above the 1.55 estimate of Baahubali.  However, Baahubali is displaying the usual Sunday drop and has room to rise too so it could keep its positioning when the actual come out.  Right now, Gifted is projected to drop 25.2% from Sunday.  I expect this to increase on Sunday!!!  I will be conservative since this is in the derby and say it gets a Sunday equal to Saturday.  That gives Gifted a weekend of 1.52M, up almost 11% from estimates.

 

12. Smurfs – Smurfs looks spot on from estimates.  It is projected to drop 16.5% from Saturday.  Its 87.4% increase on Sunday from Friday is in line from 2007 with Ice Age 2 and The Wild, and higher than Boss Baby.  It could still go up higher though.  Boss Baby, BATB, and Smurfs…  1.175 weekend. 

 

13. Going in Style – this estimate looks spot on  the 30% drop from Saturday, and a Sunday that is up 14.5% from Friday seems fair.  I see no reason for this one to be hit hard on Mothers Day.  Last year, Criminal help up even better.  1.04M weekend

 

14.  Born in China – it seems all the Disneynature films hold as many screens as possible for week #4 (Mother’s Day) because they always increase even if week #3 (May tentpole weekend) they get knocked hard.  I expect this to be up 50% from Friday and that would give it a Sunday increase from Saturday of 1%.  Previous examples show this could go higher.  0.925 weekend, up 12.8% from estimates.  **14th place change would affect Summer game.  (currently it is The Wall)

 

15. The Wall – It is predicted to drop 30% from Saturday.  Being nice, I give it a 25% drop.  That gives it a weekend of 0.91M, and up about 2.2% from estimates.

 

16. Lost City of Z – This should hold position even if it changes a lot.  Right now, it is projected to drop 40% from Saturday to have a Sunday PTA of $254 which is under Fridays PTA of $261.  I have no idea how much this one is geared towards females.  I am going to give this one a drop like that of The Circle.  Exactly down 1/3 from Saturday.  That gives a new Sunday PTA of $283, up 8.4% from Friday. Last weekend, Sunday for Z was up 7.6% from Friday so this seems reasonable.  0.482M weekend, up about 3% from estimates.  (and no position change)

 

17.  Norman – limited release movie with Richard Gere.  Projected to drop 8.4% from last weekend after adding 28 locations.  No dailies available.  I expect the weekend of 0.410M to be the baseline.  This movie is a wild card for the Summer Game’s 18th slot prediction competition.  Assuming .410 is the baseline, its nearest competitor is Get Out which seems unlikely to swap places.  The only upset I see is if the Sci-Fi comedy Absolutely Anything drops in above 400K for the weekend when actual come in.  No data is available for this yet, but remember Slamma Jamma?  So far, Absolutely Anything has done decent overseas and is being distributed by Atlas Distribution.  It has distributed 3 movies so far….

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=atlas.htm

 

18.  Get Out – Sunday, April 23rd this dropped 55% from Saturday.  It was obviously pair up with Fate of the Furious for double features (then in it’s second weekend).  The following Sunday it dropped 46.8%, then 46.6% and then this Sunday at 45%.  I will be fair and match the Sunday gross with the Friday gross.  This one should make a little extra today.  That would give it a 39.4% drop and a weekend of 0.396M and up about 2.5% from estimates.  **using this reasoning makes it seem that 18th place for the Summer Game is safe.  Norman should have the 0.41 as a baseline even if it does not show dailies since the adult dramas so far all seem underestimated.  It would be unusual for Get Out to drop 25% on Mother’s Day and overtake Norman for 17th place.  The only upset I see is the unknown number for Absolutely Anything which I went over in the previous paragraph.

 

19. The Zookeeper’s Wife – this one will be fun to watch.  It is projected to drop 30% from Saturday.  Like Gifted, I think this one can increase but I will be conservative and say Sunday matches Saturday.  0.375M weekend, up about 13% from estimates.  **seems if this one really overperforms above even my lofty expectation, it will still need Get Out to fall from its current estimate of .386M to obtain the 18th slot. 

 

20.  Their Finest – Lastly, here is this one by STX entertainment.  I have no idea how this one will perform today.  It jumped 100% from Friday.  It is projected to drop 42.9% today.  The $310 for Sunday is up 14.4% from the $271 on Friday.  Last week, Sunday was down 7.5% from Friday, and the week before it was up 9.1% from Friday.  Seems Sundays are very inconsistent for this and I have no idea what to expect for this one.  I will give it a 50% increase from Friday which would be a 25% decrease from Saturday.  0.315M weekend, up 8.6% from Saturday.

 

Special Mention

Case for Christ – predicted to drop 24.6 from Saturday.  It should increase today.  Having it 50% above Friday would give it a 6.6% increase from Saturday.  0.191M weekend, up 12% from estimates.

 

The Shack – predicted to drop 17% on Sunday.  It already increased 62% on Saturday, so I guesss that Sunday will hold from Saturday.  This one should have a bigger Sunday than Case 4 Christ.  0.123M weekend, up 7% from estimates.

 

Hidden Figures – predicted to drop 19.4% on Sunday.  It already increased 80% on Saturday, and I expect this to hold on Sunday.  That would give it one of the highest Sunday to Friday ratios right up there with Boss Baby, Smurfs, and Latin Lover.  92K weekend, up 8% from estimates.

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