The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sydney Bristow]

MovieTickets:

 

1- Thor: 37,4%

2- BM: 13,8%

3- MOTOE: 13,3%

4- DH2: 12,8%

5- SW: 3,8%

 

Pulse:

 

1- Thor

2- MOTOE

3- DH2

4- BM

5- Thor 3d

 

5 min watch:

JL: 32

SW: 30

Coco: 1

Edited November 10, 2017 by Sydney Bristow

[eXtacy2]

46 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Still seems likely for an $150M OW for JL

Good for OE and DH2 I guess

Wonder still has time

Decent start for Coco any comps yet?

Kind of expected this

Woof

 

Also how is/was your vacation?

Only 25% ahead is not that much. BvS was way more frontloaded with 28m in Thurs previews so you expect pre-sales to be a lot more than Thor. 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, raegr said:

I'd I think it will be more walkup friendly. I feel it in my loins. People may be waiting for reception. I'd wait till reactions and by next thursday we should get an idea

Given that DC movies have had strong presales than their Marvel counterparts, I think it won’t be that walkup friendly.

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Given that DC movies have had strong presales than their Marvel counterparts, I think it won’t be that walkup friendly.

No they have a very similar profile on the Deep Wang scale:

On 11/3/2017 at 1:13 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Wow this is remarkable the correlation between presales and opening weekend. I am assuming the presales numbers (or rather correlation) are of final numbers. If so then the ratio of Presales of the following movie compared to CW lines up very very closely to their opening weekends compared to CW.

 

The percentages below are of that movie OW relative to CW OW

 

BvS - 9.2 - 92.7%

Guardians 2 - 8.3 - 81.8%

Suicide Squad - 7.2 - 74.7%

SMH - 6.5 - 65.3%

WW - 5.6 - 57.7%

 

The only outlier from the above list is Deadpool. It had 4.5m sales to 10m of CW but its opening weekend was 74% of CW.

[DAJK]

Daddy's Home at my theatre tonight did fine, 1M wouldn't be out of reach if other theatres followed suit.

 

Murder didn't have Thursday shows here.

[ZeeSoh]

So the range still remains 127-153 based on that presales number for JL. 

[YM!]

6 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

No they have a very similar profile on the Deep Wang scale:

Including Lego Batman and TDK series.

[YM!]

Coco

North Shore Cinema (11 days before previews, 12 before release)

Mequon, WI

 

7:00 - 4/98

10:00 - 0/98

 

Running at 16.6% of DM3 and 26.6% of The Star. However Coco presales have just started a few days ago so no worries.

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update for today:

 

Spoiler

OE:

 

10:45: 32/78 

11:30: 13/63 

12:15: 6/78 

1:00: 6/67 

1:45: 5/78 

3:00: 6/78

4:30: 0/78

5:45: 9/78 

7:15: 17/78 

8:30: 7/78 

10:00: 0/78

 

Thor:

 

10:00: 13/124

10:45 3D: 3/78

11:30: 2/113

12:15 3D: 1/69

1:00: 15/124

1:45 3D: 0/78

2:30 3D: 0/113

3:15: 0/69

4:00: 0/124

4:45 3D: 0/78

5:30: 11/113

6:15 3D: 2/69

7:00: 33/124

7:45 3D: 0/78

8:30 3D: 0/113

9:15: 4/69

10:00: 5/124

10:45 3D: 0/78

 

DH2:

 

10:00: 9/78 

11:15: 1/78 

12:30: 5/78 

1:45: 6/78

3:00: 4/78

4:15: 5/78

5:30: 4/78

6:45: 17/78

8:00: 0/78

9:15: 2/78

10:30: 0/78

 

Bad Moms:

 

11:25: 2/78

2:05: 0/78

4:40: 0/78

7:15: 4/78

9:50: 0/78

 

Geostorm: 

 

4:55: 4/63

10:15: 0/63

 

OE: 101/832 (Up 26)

Thor: 89/1,738 (Up 23)

DH2: 53/858 (Up 10)

Bad Moms: 6/390

Geostorm: 4/126 (Up 4)

Jigsaw, TYFYS, and Madea have sold nothing.

 

OE comps:

 

95% of Kingsman (37.1M)

115% of Madea (24.4M)

135% of Bad Moms (22.7M)

155% of American Assassin (22.9M)

200% of Mountain Between Us (21.2M)

 

Outside of Kingsman, these comps are indicating something between 21-24M.

 

DH comps:

 

60% of Madea (12.7M)

70% of Bad Moms (11.8M)

110% of American Made (18.5M)

355% of Suburbicon (9.9M)

 

Just an FYI: school is not out in my area today. That said, these comparisons aren't encouraging outside of AM.

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

So the range still remains 127-153 based on that presales number for JL. 

It's early and post reviews and Monday will show a clearer picture but right now looking a NYC I'd go to the low end, maybe lower. 

 

It started off with a big screen count - akin to BvS (232 screens v 239) even though BvS started selling a bit earlier.  Over the last week plus it hasn't added many screens. While it's added several smaller theaters it's lost a few screens at bigger ones.  Lincoln Center IMAX first showing hasn't near sold out yet and is closer to WW one week out than Thor 3, SM or GOTG2.

 

I counted 2 near sellouts - at The Alamo .  It's usually the first to sellout along with LC IMAX

 

As of last night in NYC Fandango

 

Screens/ Reserved/ Sellouts/ Complete Sellouts

257/ 138 /2 /0

 

 

Edited November 10, 2017 by TalismanRing

[RRA]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's early and post reviews and Monday will show a clearer picture but right now looking a NYC I'd go to the low end, maybe lower. 

 

It started off with a big screen count - akin to BvS (232 screens v 239) even though BvS started selling a bit earlier.  Over the last week plus it hasn't added many screens. While it's added several smaller theaters it's lost a few screens at bigger ones.  Lincoln Center IMAX first showing hasn't near sold out yet and is closer to WW one week out than Thor 3, SM or GOTG2.

 

I counted 2 near sellouts - at The Alamo .  It's usually the first to sellout along with LC IMAX

 

As of last night in NYC Fandango

 

Screens/ Reserved/ Sellouts/ Complete Sellouts

257/ 138 /2 /0

 

 

Isn’t Wednesday still when review embargo drops?

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, RRA said:

Isn’t Wednesday still when review embargo drops?

Unless they move it up, yes 

 

 I meant Monday is usually when theaters start seriously adding on screens or not and I also have more comparative data for that date.  

[Neilio]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Unless they move it up, yes 

 

 I meant Monday is usually when theaters start seriously adding on screens or not and I also have more comparative data for that date.  

How much could potential positive social media buzz do at this stage? 

[raegr]

38 minutes ago, Neilio said:

How much could potential positive social media buzz do at this stage? 

ALOT, THE FILM NEEDS THAT. The film currently is on a trajectory towards 140-150M. Good WoM will push it to 160-170. Unfortunately 180M is a bit of a stretch. 

[TalismanRing]

30 minutes ago, raegr said:

ALOT, THE FILM NEEDS THAT. The film currently is on a trajectory towards 140-150M. Good WoM will push it to 160-170. Unfortunately 180M is a bit of a stretch. 

 

Official tracking hasn't been updated since it broke two weeks ago and Empire has stated it's unchanged at $110-120m.

[Jonwo]

14 hours ago, grim22 said:

- The Star is bad

No surprise there then...

[JB33]

It says something about the brand that JL is tracking for a smaller opening weekend than BvS. Still lots of work to do for Warner Bros. and DC, even after WONDER WOMAN.

[YM!]

Current tracking forecasts have The Star at $10M and Wonder at $9M. Both titles are skewing toward older females, meaning moms.

DHD

[BeastByTheBay]

25 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It says something about the brand that JL is tracking for a smaller opening weekend than BvS. Still lots of work to do for Warner Bros. and DC, even after WONDER WOMAN.

Well they did have 3 critical flops in a row and basically had to start at zero with WW. Expecting JL to have a bigger opening than BvS after all the drama isn't realistic and i'm a fan of most of the DC movies. Don't forget WW barely made it over 100M OW, it's legs saved it

Edited November 10, 2017 by BeastByTheBay

[JB33]

21 minutes ago, BeastByTheBay said:

Well they did have 3 critical flops in a row and basically had to start at zero with WW. Expecting JL to have a bigger opening than BvS after all the drama isn't realistic and i'm a fan of most of the DC movies. Don't forget WW barely made it over 100M OW, it's legs saved it

Well that's kind of what I mean. I don't expect it to open over BvS. It just says something about the state of things that JL is tracking for less.

 

That being said, at this point it shouldn't be about the box office. It's about the quality of their movies and they hit it out of the park with WW. I'm eagerly awaiting JL to see if they can put together a streak here.