The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

this weekend is looking to have a net increase of 1,000 theater counts from last weekend.  I thought it would be more, given Awards expansions.  Looks like Shape of Water and 3 Billboards are holding off and whoever wins will probably double next week.  Darkest Hour, Call Me By Your Name, Phantom Thread and I Tonya got the bigger boosts despite having lower per theater averages last week.  Looking at what is happening next weekend, that is necessary for them.  With all the incoming product, they might as well go to home video next week.  It seems there will be about 13,000 incoming theater counts next weekend plus any awards expansions.  Black Panther reducing showtimes in its 4th weekend to probably 2 screens/theater minimum vs the new Disney movie getting probably 2 screens/theater minimum.  Yikes!  cutting theater counts after this weekend would be like a college professor grading one of my math or science exams.  Get out a red pen and hack and slash!

Edited March 2, 2018 by Matrix4You

[TwoMisfits]

Morning MT.com

 

49.6% Black Panther

10.7% Red Sparrow

7% Game Night

6.5% Death Wish

3.4% Peter Rabbit

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:

 

Spoiler

 

Black Panther:

 

10:00: 2/124

10:30: 2/63

11:00: 12/113

11:30 3D: 0/78

12:15 3D: 6/78

1:15: 0/124

1:45: 0/63

2:15: 0/113

2:45 3D: 0/78

3:45 3D: 2/78

4:30: 3/124

5:30: 8/113

6:00 3D: 0/78

7:00 3D: 12/78

7:45: 19/124

8:45: 8/113

9:15 3D: 0/78

9:45: 4/63

10:15 3D: 0/78

10:45: 2/124

 

Red Sparrow:

 

10:00: 16/78

1:40: 25/78

3:40: 6/78

7:25: 19/78

9:40: 3/78

 

Death Wish:

 

11:05: 35/78

1:10: 14/78

4:45: 6/78

6:55: 7/78

10:30: 4/78

 

Peter Rabbit:

 

11:15: 3/78

1:35: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

6:30: 3/78

9:00: 0/78

 

Jumanji:

 

10:40: 0/60

1:25 3D: 0/60

4:20: 4/60

7:10 3D: 2/60

10:00: 0/60

 

Game Night:

 

10:10: 0/78

12:30: 0/78

3:00: 4/78

5:25: 0/78

8:00: 0/78

10:35: 0/78

Annihilation:

 

10:35: 0/67

1:20: 0/67

4:10: 2/67

7:05: 0/67

9:55: 2/67

 

Fifty Shades:

 

10:05: 0/69

12:35: 0/69

3:10: 0/69

5:40: 0/69

8:10: 2/69

10:40: 0/69

 

 

 

Black Panther: 80/1,885 (Up 28) (-40% from last week)

Red Sparrow: 69/390 (Up 17) (nice @aabattery)

Death Wish: 66/390 (Up 23)

Peter Rabbit: 6/390 (Up 3) (Flat from last week)

Jumanji: 6/300 (Up 6) (+300% from last week)

Game Night: 4/468 (-90% from last week)

Annihilation: 4/335 (-75% from last week)

Fifty Shades: 2/414 (-80% from last week)

Every Day has sold nothing.

 

Red Sparrow comps:

 

11% of Black Panther (22.2M)

17% of Ragnarok (20.9M)

22% of Justice League (20.6M)

70% of Orient Express (20.1M)

65% of Kingsman (25.4M)

155% of Atomic Blonde (28.4M)

160% of Proud Mary (16M)

175% of The Commuter (24M)

 

The morning show gained no tickets at all, so don't be surprised if the under-25 split is pretty substantial (20% wouldn't be shocking). I added some CBM comps in because of the potential younger skew.

 

Death Wish:

 

65% of The Post (12.6M)

80% of 15:17 to Paris (10.1M)

90% of 12 Strong (14.2M)

90% of Hostiles (9.1M)

100% of American Assassin (14.8M)

135% of American Made (22.7M)

170% of The Commuter (23.3M)

 

The American Assassin comp would be perfect if it didn't have a somewhat substantial under-25 split (15%). Death Wish is practically locked for 90% over 25, so the first four comps is probably the range. Kinda leaning towards 15:17 being the closest solely because this will bomb outside of rural areas

Edited March 2, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[BXT]

New long range predictions from Box Office pro.

 

Avengers  215/538

Rampage 19/47

Tomb Raider 28/70

Wrinkle 39/115

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-avengers-infinity-war/

[DAJK]

@EmpireCity any thoughts on BO's new prediction? I know you said you were thinking it was going to do 50M+ opening, what's the film's best option here and what are the odds it does tank?

[Barnack]

Box office pro Rampage predictions do seem a bit strange no ?

 

I imagine that it is a purely if it does not move scenario.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Barnack

[KeepItU25071906]

Sorry, but this prediction for Rampage (19 mln opening week-end) looks very stupid.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Sorry, but this prediction for Rampage (19 mln opening week-end) looks very stupid.

Gotta be honest, I think 19m OD is more likely than OW given the Rock...

[TwoMisfits]

End of night MT.com - the new releases have put themselves in the 2-3 spots...

47.6% Black Panther

12.4% Red Sparrow

7.3% Death Wish

7.3% Game Night

4.9% Peter Rabbit

[YM!]

WIT is way behind other family films (Wonder, DH2, Coco, and even The Star) in presales in my theater. Might be a bad sign.

[EmpireCity]

On 3/2/2018 at 4:23 PM, DAJK said:

@EmpireCity any thoughts on BO's new prediction? I know you said you were thinking it was going to do 50M+ opening, what's the film's best option here and what are the odds it does tank?

 

I think it will take a slight tick down to maybe a $45m opening due to some theaters not being able to play it because they would miss out on AVENGERS the next week.  

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it will take a slight tick down to maybe a $45m opening due to some theaters not being able to play it because they would miss out on AVENGERS the next week.  

Is it not possible for theaters to make a special arrangement to only have a film play for one week? Surely the studio would benefit from that if lots of theaters are willing to skip it entirely in favour of Avengers?

[EmpireCity]

Just now, feasby007 said:

Is it not possible for theaters to make a special arrangement to only have a film play for one week? Surely the studio would benefit from that if lots of theaters are willing to skip it entirely in favour of Avengers?

 

Not for a film of this size.  If this were an indie release or something similar, but any studio wide release is going to get 2 weeks full run 99% of the time.  

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not for a film of this size.  If this were an indie release or something similar, but any studio wide release is going to get 2 weeks full run 99% of the time.  

I've always been curious about how PLF screen sharing work when major tentpoles release a week apart. Rampage is advertised as having an IMAX release, and I assume it would lose all IMAX screens to IW the following week because the latter is a far bigger film. How did IMAX sharing work last summer for Homecoming, Apes 3, and Dunkirk (all major tentpoles which were released one week apart)?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, KP1025 said:

I've always been curious about how PLF screen sharing work when major tentpoles release a week apart. Rampage is advertised as having an IMAX release, and I assume it would lose all IMAX screens to IW the following week because the latter is a far bigger film. How did IMAX sharing work last summer for Homecoming, Apes 3, and Dunkirk (all major tentpoles which were released one week apart)?

Apes didn't get an IMAX release until late August when Dunkirk was about 4-5 weeks into its run. SMH just kept IMAX for 2 weeks.

[YM!]

Didn’t Wonder Woman, The Mummy and Cars 3 had IMAX in the span of three weeks?

[KP1025]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Apes didn't get an IMAX release until late August when Dunkirk was about 4-5 weeks into its run. SMH just kept IMAX for 2 weeks.

Thanks. I'm also curious to see how the situation plays out this summer when Incredibles 2 and JW2 release one week apart. Both are advertised as having an IMAX release.

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Thanks. I'm also curious to see how the situation plays out this summer when Incredibles 2 and JW2 release one week apart. Both are advertised as having an IMAX release.

Family films die faster in large formats because of the high ticket prices, so JW will hold onto them for a good two weeks before Ant-Man

[Stewart]

44 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not for a film of this size.  If this were an indie release or something similar, but any studio wide release is going to get 2 weeks full run 99% of the time.  

So basically unless Rampage moves a week earlier, WB have kinda fucked themselves a little. 

[Krissykins]

The Hurricane Heist is going straight to cable tv here in the U.K. lol