The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Love, Simon is selling really well around me. Fully expecting this to be one of those instances where tracking is completely useless.

Disney Springs is looking very strong tonight (haven't checked other theaters)

[TwoMisfits]

Tonight's previews (1st local with all 3)...

TR 25/250

Love Simon 9/120 (this worries me, b/c I am in the "zone" for this movie)

ICOI 6/120 (added only Tuesday night - others have sold for over a week - I am not in the "zone" for this movie)

 

2nd local with 2

TR 36/350

Love Simon 12/100

 

I think Love Simon is gonna struggle to get the 25+ demo from these Thursday preview numbers, but should really hit the 13-25 demo hard...not sure how much that delivers, but I guess we'll see:)...well, either that, or the 25+ will watch it after their March Madness team loses tonight or tomorrow:)...

[filmlover]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Tonight's previews (1st local with all 3)...

TR 25/250

Love Simon 9/120 (this worries me, b/c I am in the "zone" for this movie)

ICOI 6/120 (added only Tuesday night - others have sold for over a week - I am not in the "zone" for this movie)

 

2nd local with 2

TR 36/350

Love Simon 12/100

 

I think Love Simon is gonna struggle to get the 25+ demo from these Thursday preview numbers, but should really hit the 13-25 demo hard...not sure how much that delivers, but I guess we'll see:)...well, either that, or the 25+ will watch it after their March Madness team loses tonight or tomorrow:)...

The 25+ demo is more likely to show up over the weekend (which is when I'm seeing it). The "groundbreaking" angle + strong reviews should give it an extra push towards a broader audience than the typical teen movie.

[Hiccup23]

10 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Night Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 172 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 169 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 211 tickets 

 

Love, Simon is the most impressive jump of all. 

 

Tomb Raider is gain speed but behind Love, Simon on Pulse...which isn't good.

 

ICOI regained momentum and sits at #2 on Pulse......

 

Morning Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 181 tickets 

Tomb Raider: 186 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 251 tickets 

 

ICOI isn't dying....I am waiting for it to collapse haha

 

Love, Simon and Tomb Raider are super close to each other. Good for Love, Simon but not so good for Tomb Raider. 

[Hiccup23]

Pulse Top Sellers

 

1. I Can Only Imagine

2. A Wrinkle in Time

3. Black Panther

4. Tomb Raider

5. Love, Simon

 

 

[filmlover]

Jesus, his power.

[Hiccup23]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Jesus, his power.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

You know, regarding Tomb Raider, it shouldn’t be as frontloaded a movie as one would expect. Now, I’m not saying it won’t be and the presales are slightly disappointing, but TR as a franchise is not rabid from an outsider’s perspective and it’s not nearly as young because the character has been around for so long.

 

Love, Simon is as close to YA as we can get now. Wouldnt be surprised if over 75% of the tickets sold so far are for Thursday/Friday 

 

 

 

 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

2 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Movietickets 8:20am ET update....Tomb Raider sighting.

 

Black Panther 20.5%

Wrinkle in Time 19.4%

I Can Only Imagine 15.5%

Peter Rabbit 5.8%

Tomb Raider 5.8%

10:45am ET....Love, Simon on the board

 

Black Panther 20%

Wrinkle in Time 18.5%

I Can Only Imagine 16.6%

Tomb Raider 6.1%

Love, Simon 5.5%

Edited March 15, 2018 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[Poseidon]

Looking at the inflated weekday numbers, this seems pretty solid for the openers. Not too great for Tomb Raider, but okayish. 

[Eric the Minion]

1 hour ago, Hiccup23 said:

Pulse Top Sellers

 

1. I Can Only Imagine

2. A Wrinkle in Time

3. Black Panther

4. Tomb Raider

5. Love, Simon

 

 

@slambros

 

Our boy Samson has been avenged.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

@slambros

 

Our boy Samson has been avenged.

[MrGlass2]

I don't know what's going on with ICOI but there is no way it does "between $2M-$4M" right? Or these Pulse/MT numbers don't mean anything.

[Hiccup23]

19 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

I don't know what's going on with ICOI but there is no way it does "between $2M-$4M" right? Or these Pulse/MT numbers don't mean anything.

 

I agree, if it opens with $2-$4M then Pulse and MT are useless and shouldn't be used for tracking. The film is selling on par with A Wrinkle in Time. The biggest thing holding it back is the theater count of ~1,600....but then again you had War Room in 2015 having a 1,135 theater count and opened with $11.4M. We had God's Not Dead with a 780 theater count and opened with $9.2M.

 

I am thinking based off tracking, historical data from Christian films, and gut feeling it will open with $10M this weekend. I won't be surprised if it cracks $12M...fuck even $15M. Shack 2.0.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Hiccup23

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

7:00 Imagine: 58/78

7:45 Imagine: 2/67 (this showing was just added)

Tomb Raider: 8/69

Love, Simon: 2/78

[TwoMisfits]

49 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

I agree, if it opens with $2-$4M then Pulse and MT are useless and shouldn't be used for tracking. The film is selling on par with A Wrinkle in Time. The biggest thing holding it back is the theater count of ~1,600....but then again you had War Room in 2015 having a 1,135 theater count and opened with $11.4M. We had God's Not Dead with a 780 theater count and opened with $9.2M.

 

I am thinking based off tracking, historical data from Christian films, and gut feeling it will open with $10M this weekend. I won't be surprised if it cracks $12M...fuck even $15M. Shack 2.0.

Yes and no...selling on par % wise is not the same as selling on par $ wise...you have to look at what the other movies around it would reasonably be preselling.  You also have to know the type of movie it is - one which gets almost no presales vs one which relies heavily on presales.  You also have to look at what type of movies sell best on which site.  Now, it is telling that ICOI is doing well on BOTH sites b/c MT.com tends to skew to older buyer movies (and Bollywood movies) and Fandango tends to skew to more popular and younger movies.

 

But, ICOI NEEDS presales...it will not walk up like the other 2 movies unless we are looking at a totally unexpected breakout...but it IS getting those presales, so $2-$4M, even with just 1600 theaters, does seem like it will be very low...I think $10M is in play, but I was willing to bet $6M plus...the current presales give me confidence that I'm not out to lunch:)...

Edited March 15, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

@slambros

 

Our boy Samson has been avenged.

 

*tries to search for gif/photo expressing happiness*

*runs out of time*

*stays happy about achievement nonetheless*

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

I don't know what's going on with ICOI but there is no way it does "between $2M-$4M" right? Or these Pulse/MT numbers don't mean anything.

Well there was that weekend a few years ago when Black Mass's MT performance made it look like it must be opening to at least $100m+ lol. 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well there was that weekend a few years ago when Black Mass's MT performance made it look like it must be opening to at least $100m+ lol. 

LOL I remember that. Thought I was being conservative with 65M. 

 

What a time

[filmlover]

Does anyone on BOT even use MT to buy tickets, or have ever used it? It's always been either Fandango or bust for me.