The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

MT

DP2 45.9%
Solo 19%
IW 9.2%
Book 7%
Life 2.9%

Solo barely increased from yesterday.

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Well yea this forum will call Solo a bomb but neither JL or Solo are bombs (if Solo does $600-700M). They're underperformances. 

They are bombs If they don't turn in profits though.

 

JL's budget was $300M

 

and Solo is $250M-$300M (probably needs $650M+ to break even).

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Well yea this forum will call Solo a bomb but neither JL or Solo are bombs (if Solo does $600-700M). They're underperformances. 

I agree, to be a real "bomb" a film has to lose at least 100m I'd say. But let's be real here: a Star Wars film losing money would have been an absurd statement people would've called impossible just 6 months ago. You can't expect people to not make a big deal out of it if it actually happens. In the context of its franchise, losing any money at all is pretty much a bomb. 

[Welfin]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

MT

DP2 45.9%
Solo 19%
IW 9.2%
Book 7%
Life 2.9%

Solo barely increased from yesterday.

 

Uh oh

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

So 115 probably gives it like 290 at most, and even if we say OS share is oddly a bit higher than DOM for once, it still barely goes over 600 WW. I don't buy that's enough for profit with that budget. JL made more than that with a budget less than these reports we're getting for Solo's, and we know WB took a loss. 

It is true looking at that weekend multi:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm?page=MEMOPEN&sort=date&order=DESC&p=.htm

Not good, but lot of tired / not that well received movie in that list lately, and Star Wars tend to be leggy for a franchise. Still realistic to not expect a great multiplier here.

 

Little points here.

JL made more than that

JL did more but was China heavy, not saying Disney is getting a 65% on Solo like those Awaken/Last Jedi type of deal but it is still probably getting really nice retention deal and play mostly in good revenues by box office dollar market.

 

600m on a Solo making 290/310, would probably be close to 285m in rental about the same has a Justice League was probably around 280-285m

 

with a budget less than these reports we're getting for Solo's

Curious what the sources are of that ?, after JL production issues the number I have seen and that i have seen by those estimating it lost money was about a net 300m production budget and a 350m production + bonus budget. Solo does not have Affleck level of actor, except for writing/director and producer it probably is quite light bonus wise in comparison. I feel like what is reported is a Solo is smaller specially when accounting participation bonus to JL.

 

and we know WB took a loss.

I am a bit curious, how would we know this ? It is probable but I am not sure it is known, they were no reporting that Sony took a lost on Men In Black 3 or Angel&Demons back in the days and many perceived financially loosing movie ended up not to be. We do not know that much, specially if you talk about an individual investor on a movie like WB and not the movie in is totality. Distributor are often the last one in the list of people taking the loss if one occur, paying themselve first.

 

Make this mental exercise, if a movie released today would to make what Amazing Spider Man 2 just did.

 

Net production cost of : 263.95m (over 300m gross budget)

Talent got in bonus: 44.25m

World theatrical release budget of: 191.79m

 

So a 500m production/bonus + releasing cost on a 709m WW domestic light box office.

 

It made 307.82m in rental from it's 709m box office the way the market breakdown/retention rate played (37-38%), not much more than a 600m domestic heavy Solo would do.

And underperformed on home video, not being very well like.

 

Reading that, would you have thought Sony took a loss considering it does not has access to merchandising revenues on SpiderMan ?

Edited May 23, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I agree, to be a real "bomb" a film has to lose at least 100m I'd say. But let's be real here: a Star Wars film losing money would have been an absurd statement people would've called impossible just 6 months ago. You can't expect people to not make a big deal out of it if it actually happens. In the context of its franchise, losing any money at all is pretty much a bomb. 

This is true.

 

But like you said our language is not just fully adapted to this franchise world, in Star Wars term there is destruction of value of the brand that can happen, there is huge opportunity cost vs a different scenario to such an high level.

 

A bit like a movie called original or not, some of the box office vocabulary is not yet fully adapt to this current heavy franchise world.

[WrathOfHan]

Tomorrow night at my theater:

 

7:00: 95/124

7:00 3D: 48/113

7:30 3D: 14/78

8:00: 46/78

8:30 3D: 17/69

9:00: 42/78

9:45: 3/78

Total: 265/618 (186 2D/79 3D)

 

Some comps (all previews):

30% of The Last Jedi the morning of (13.5M)

41% of Infinity War the evening before (16M)

100% of Black Panther the morning of (25.2M)

104% of Deadpool 2 the morning of (19.3M)

 

Final totals:

25% of The Last Jedi (11.3M)

25% of Infinity War (9.8M)

53% of Black Panther (13.4M)

63% of Deadpool 2 (11.7M)

 

The real test will be how much those 3D shows fill up. The extra show at 9:45 is doing basically nothing so far.

Edited May 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

This is true.

 

But like you said our language is not just fully adapted to this franchise world, in Star Wars term there is destruction of value of the brand that can happen, there is huge opportunity cost vs a different scenario to such an high level.

 

A bit like a movie called original or not, some of the box office vocabulary is not yet fully adapt to this current heavy franchise world.

Yeah, exactly. When movies existed mostly in a vacuum, it’s fine to say that profit=good, near breakeven=disappointing but acceptable, 100M+ loss= total bomb.       

 

If you have a movie with direct profits of 100M that you suspect destroyed 200M of profit from its successors (*cough* BvS *cough*), evaluation is a little more messy.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Well yea this forum will call Solo a bomb but neither JL or Solo are bombs (if Solo does $600-700M). They're underperformances. 

Pretty sure JL lost WB anywhere within the vincinity of 50M+. That's not John Carter or Tomorrowland bad, but it's still a considerable amount of money that was lost, and imo, that, coupled w/the expectations placed on JL, makes it a bomb.

 

If Solo loses the same kind of amount, it's a bomb too.

[Nova]

On 5/22/2018 at 3:02 PM, Nova said:

Doing this update today because I have a final exam that I'm not prepared for at all Thursday morning so I'm gonna try my best to stay off this site tomorrow evening (I'll fail at that). I may update again tomorrow night to give the updated showtimes (and to have better data for future films) because like i said BOT is like some cocaine addiction that I have. 

 

*No updates in showtimes as of yet 

 

2D 

7PM 89/116 

9:15 PM 96/142 

10:45 PM 56/142 

 

3D 

7PM 90/142

10:15 PM 33/116 

 

2D 

7PM 95/116 

9:15 98/116 

10:45 59/142 

12:15 AM 0/142 

 

3D 

7PM 90/142 

8PM 5/116 

10:15 PM 36/142 

11:15 0/116 

11:45 0/50 

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tomorrow night at my theater:

 

7:00: 95/124

7:00 3D: 48/113

7:30 3D: 14/78

8:00: 46/78

8:30 3D: 17/69

9:00: 42/78

9:45: 3/78

Total: 265/618 (186 2D/79 3D)

 

Some comps (all previews):

30% of The Last Jedi the morning of (13.5M)

41% of Infinity War the evening before (16M)

100% of Black Panther the morning of (25.2M)

104% of Deadpool 2 the morning of (19.3M)

 

Final totals:

25% of The Last Jedi (11.3M)

25% of Infinity War (9.8M)

53% of Black Panther (13.4M)

63% of Deadpool 2 (11.7M)

 

The real test will be how much those 3D shows fill up. The extra show at 9:45 is doing basically nothing so far.

This movie is doing just utter shit at the moment...

 

With usual Star Wars previews multiplier, that's like a $70m 3-day, add a bit for MD and it's like $75m tops

[WrathOfHan]

The other reserved theater in my area:

 

7:00 XL: 80/300

7:30: 4/130

8:00 XL: 2/300

8:30 3D: 0/47

8:45: 0/47

10:15 XL: 3/300

10:45: 0/130

11:15 XL: 0/300

11:30 3D: 0/47

Total: 89/1,601

 

Jesus. Keep in mind I'm not tracking this theater regularly because the ticket prices are killing attendance here, but this just shows how little demand there is

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The other reserved theater in my area:

 

7:00 XL: 80/300

7:30: 4/130

8:00 XL: 2/300

8:30 3D: 0/47

8:45: 0/47

10:15 XL: 3/300

10:45: 0/130

11:15 XL: 0/300

11:30 3D: 0/47

Total: 89/1,601

 

Jesus. Keep in mind I'm not tracking this theater regularly because the ticket prices are killing attendance here, but this just shows how little demand there is

 

What if...what if Deadpool 2 > Solo this weekend?

[Cheebs86]

6 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

This movie is doing just utter shit at the moment...

 

With usual Star Wars previews multiplier, that's like a $70m 3-day, add a bit for MD and it's like $75m tops

70 mil 3 day and 5 mil on memorial day?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

What if...what if Deadpool 2 > Solo this weekend?

I won't be surprised if it's ahead of Solo in two or three weeks tbh. This is gonna be frontloaded as hell.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Cheebs86 said:

70 mil 3 day and 5 mil on memorial day?

no no, I realise I phrased badly. 

 

70m on a normal 3-day, 75m on this 3-day due to sunday being inflated. 4-day is probably more like 90m based on the previews at Han's theatre

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I won't be surprised if it's ahead of Solo in two or three weeks tbh. This is gonna be frontloaded as hell.

Then... how many weekends til IW is above Solo? 

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Then... how many weekends til IW is above Solo? 

5-6?  

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

no no, I realise I phrased badly. 

 

70m on a normal 3-day, 75m on this 3-day due to sunday being inflated. 4-day is probably more like 90m based on the previews at Han's theatre

I wouldn't make any calls yet  That said, the vast majority of these tickets were sold pretty early on.

[Nova]

If only Deadpool 2 opened a bit higher. It could have had a chance to have a bigger second weekend than X-Men Apocalypse OW