The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cax16]

 

[DAJK]

I made a JL comment a few weeks back in some thread, but that was more of a fan reaction comparison. Shame if it grosses the same though. Hope I still at least enjoy the movie.

 

Also, anyone want to mention the 140+ tracking for Incredibles? @EmpireCity Do you think this number is about right, too high, or could the movie go even higher? I really do think a Solo underperformance and the complete lack of kids content recently is going to help

[Lordmandeep]

Incredibles 2 will also benefit from having an appeal to older people who liked the original and to comic book fans for being a comic book based animation film. 

 

If it is good like the original, I will likely check it out in theaters

[EmpireCity]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I made a JL comment a few weeks back in some thread, but that was more of a fan reaction comparison. Shame if it grosses the same though. Hope I still at least enjoy the movie.

 

Also, anyone want to mention the 140+ tracking for Incredibles? @EmpireCity Do you think this number is about right, too high, or could the movie go even higher? I really do think a Solo underperformance and the complete lack of kids content recently is going to help

 

Too low.  As long as the reviews are good, Incredibles 2 is going to explode.  No kids films in months leading up to release and a beloved movie that appeals to everyone. 

 

I think $150m+ is more than realistic.  

[AniNate]

140 is about on par with Dory's adjusted opening, which would be a feat in itself.  

 

 

Edited May 24, 2018 by tribefan695

[Nova]

21 hours ago, Nova said:

2D 

7PM 95/116 

9:15 98/116 

10:45 59/142 

12:15 AM 0/142 

 

3D 

7PM 90/142 

8PM 5/116 

10:15 PM 36/142 

11:15 0/116 

11:45 0/50 

2D 

7 PM 97/116 

9:15 98/116 

10:45 65/142

12:15 6/142

 

3D 

7PM 90/142 

8PM 20/116 

10:15PM 40/142

11:15 0/116 

11:45 0/50 

 

Total 2D 266 

Total 3D 150 

Total 416 

 

*To compare Deadpool 2 was at 705 tickets. Deadpool 2 also had nine showings but they were all in 2D. I don't know if having more 3D shows than 2D shows is effecting sales at my theater BUT there hasn't been all that much of increase for any of the shows 2D included. 

 

I cant remember the last time a film of this magnitude was selling this poorly at my theater. Presales could be higher than it was for Deadpool 2 but for all intents and purposes at my theater at least, DP2 had surpassed it by a good margin for Thursday night. 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Too low.  As long as the reviews are good, Incredibles 2 is going to explode.  No kids films in months leading up to release and a beloved movie that appeals to everyone. 

 

I think $150m+ is more than realistic.  

That's where I would think it is. I feel like people are underestimating how much people are looking forward to the film and the fact that there hasn't been a real family film in FOREVER. 

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Too low.  As long as the reviews are good, Incredibles 2 is going to explode.  No kids films in months leading up to release and a beloved movie that appeals to everyone. 

 

I think $150m+ is more than realistic.  

 

really appreciate the the info and updates by the way :))

[KeepItU25071906]

 

 

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

That's where I would think it is. I feel like people are underestimating how much people are looking forward to the film and the fact that there hasn't been a real family film in FOREVER. 

Yeah, I've got friends who almost NEVER go to the movies who are ecstatic about INCREDIBLES 2. 

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Too low.  As long as the reviews are good, Incredibles 2 is going to explode.  No kids films in months leading up to release and a beloved movie that appeals to everyone. 

 

I think $150m+ is more than realistic.  

Holy freakin shit. That's like an IW level OW for an animated film. If it does that, it may get 550+ given the lack of competition and Pixar's track record for the most part with amazing WOM. @Pandamia! looks like your crazy high predictions for it all these months might be right. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by MovieMan89

[a2k]

With a 140+ ow I2 would "only" need 3.2x to hit 450. Dory did 3.60x and TS3 did 3.76x. Yet another 500 dom movie on cards for Disney? INSANE.

 

One 500+ dom movie alternate months Dec '17-June '18:

 

Dec TLJ 621

Jan

Feb BP 700

March

April AIW 660-680

May

June I2 possibly 500

[Valonqar]

I2 may indeed break out like crazy cause that super baby boy is hyping everyone. Never underestimate a cute character appeal. 

[MovieMan89]

That opening would very likely put it up near the coveted Lion King/Shrek 2 arena of all time animation first run admissions. It would be the biggest animated film since Shrek 2. I just still have a hard time believing it can go that much higher than its predecessor all these years later, but there's no doubt the lack of anything truly appealing or big for kids films this whole year has put it in the best position any big animated release has had in ages. 

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango (Eye Count 5-10 min avg)

 

THUR

 

• WW: 46 (10am), 125 (5pm)
• SM:HC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
• IT: 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)
• THOR:R: 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
• JL: 45.2 (10am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)
• TLJ: 275 (10:45am)
• BP: 244 (2:30)
• AIW: 240 (11:15am), 305 (3pm)
• DP2: 55 (9:30 am), 60 (10am), 98.75 (12pm), 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)

 

Solo: 47 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am)

 

Solo:  47 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am), 73 (12:30pm)

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

With a 140+ ow I2 would "only" need 3.2x to hit 450. Dory did 3.60x and TS3 did 3.76x. Yet another 500 dom movie on cards for Disney? INSANE.

 

One 500+ dom movie alternate months Dec '17-June '18:

 

Dec TLJ 621

Jan

Feb BP 700

March

April AIW 660-680

May

June I2 possibly 500

Christopher Robin 500+ in August. 

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

With a 140+ ow I2 would "only" need 3.2x to hit 450. Dory did 3.60x and TS3 did 3.76x. Yet another 500 dom movie on cards for Disney? INSANE.

 

One 500+ dom movie alternate months Dec '17-June '18:

 

Dec TLJ 621

Jan

Feb BP 700

March

April AIW 660-680

May

June I2 possibly 500

Easy over 500M 

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That opening would very likely put it up near the coveted Lion King/Shrek 2 arena of all time animation first run admissions. It would be the biggest animated film since Shrek 2. I just still have a hard time believing it can go that much higher than its predecessor all these years later, but there's no doubt the lack of anything truly appealing or big for kids films this whole year has put it in the best position any big animated release has had in ages. 

It would need well over a 4x to get in Lion King range which had appox 74.64m admissions the first time around

 

For example Toy Story 3 opened to $110m with approx 14m tickets.  $140m would be $17m tickets. So a 4.35x to get to LK levels.  TS3 finished with approx  53.33 and a 3.76 multi

Edited May 24, 2018 by TalismanRing

[The Panda]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Holy freakin shit. That's like an IW level OW for an animated film. If it does that, it may get 550+ given the lack of competition and Pixar's track record for the most part with amazing WOM. @Pandamia! looks like your crazy high predictions for it all these months might be right. 

My Incredibles #1 club is going to end up being a failure, not because I2 isn't going to break out massively, but that I didn't expect BP or IW to breakout as large as they have.

[The Panda]

14 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

With a 140+ ow I2 would "only" need 3.2x to hit 450. Dory did 3.60x and TS3 did 3.76x. Yet another 500 dom movie on cards for Disney? INSANE.

 

One 500+ dom movie alternate months Dec '17-June '18:

 

Dec TLJ 621

Jan

Feb BP 700

March

April AIW 660-680

May

June I2 possibly 500

July

August - CHRISTOPHER ROBIN 700m!

September/October

November - RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET 500M!

December - MARY POPPINS YALL 1B DOM!