The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

8:10AM ET - MT Update....Good for Hotel Transylvania

 

29.5% - Ant-Man and the Wasp

16.3% - The Incredibles 2

14.8% - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 

10.4% - The First Purge

3.9% - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

[John Marston]

4 hours ago, Alli said:

shit, CR is killing it. Why the heck is MI-F doing so badly???

Mission Impossible is not a presales film. How many times does this need to be said 

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Ant-Man

2. The First Purge

3. Hotel Transylvania 3

4. Jurassic World

5. Incredibles 2

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Ant-Man

2. Hotel Transylvania 3

3. Incredibles 2

4. Jurassic World

5. Skyscraper

[TwoMisfits]

Quick update - 2nd local ALSO gave HT3 2 full screens (3 3d, 7 2d) and gave Skyscraper 2 full screens (11 showings - 3 3d, 8 2d - this is a surprise, but this is the 12-45 male-directed movie selling theater).  They also dropped I2 and JWFK to single screens, although I2 keeps an average size, while JWFK gets a smallest size...and Ant Man also keeps its 3 screens, here, like the other theater, although this is less of a surprise (since this theater sells supers)...

Edited July 11, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Quick update - 2nd local ALSO gave HT3 2 full screens (3 3d, 7 2d) and gave Skyscraper 2 full screens (11 showings - 3 3d, 8 2d - this is a surprise, but this is the 12-45 male-directed movie selling theater).  They also dropped I2 and JWFK to single screens, although I2 keeps an average size, while JWFK gets a smallest size...and Ant Man also keeps its 3 screens, here, like the other theater, although this is less of a surprise (since this theater sells supers)...

This is following my AMC closely 🤔 

[DAJK]

Skyscraper showing up is a good sign (for The Rock)

[Biggestgeekever]

Quote

In the war of box office real estate developers, Sony’s animated family threequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is expected to have the edge over family man Dwayne Johnson’s latest Universal/Legendary action pic Skyscraper. HT3 is eyeing a number one rank between $38M and the low $40Ms, while Skyscraper is around $33M-$40M

https://deadline.com/2018/07/dwayne-johnson-skyscraper-hotel-transylvania-3-ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-1202424852/

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

https://deadline.com/2018/07/dwayne-johnson-skyscraper-hotel-transylvania-3-ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-1202424852/

I dunno, I still feel like Skyscraper could go sub-$30M quite easily.

[Biggestgeekever]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I dunno, I still feel like Skyscraper could go sub-$30M quite easily.

It is possible; presales seem pretty weak across the board. That said, for as much as The Rock's star power is probably overrated, his films tend to open over $30M with Baywatch being the major exception. Even that Hercules movie just barely missed the mark at $29.8M. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

It is possible; presales seem pretty weak across the board. That said, for as much as The Rock's star power is probably overrated, his films tend to open over $30M with Baywatch being the major exception. Even that Hercules movie just barely missed the mark at $29.8M. 

Hercules actually feels like a decent comparison for this tbh. July release and all.

[dxmatrixdt]

HT3 now looks in position to be at 10% more locations than Skyscraper.  Don't be surprised if Skyscraper hits 4,000 when theater counts are announced tomorrow.

 

NEW RELEASES
1	-	Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation	Sony / Columbia	4,200	-	-	1
2	-	Skyscraper	Universal	3,700	-	-	1
4	-	Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot	Amazon Studios	4	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
3	47	Sorry to Bother You	Annapurna Pictures	805	+789	+4,931.3%	2

[DAJK]

Really? I'd be shocked if Skyscraper got 4000 theatres. 

 

Movietickets update

 

Ant-Man 26.3

Incredibles 14.4

Jurassic World 13.3

Purge 10.9

Hotel 7.7

 

That's damn solid for Hotel. Could pass Purge tonight, maybe even Jurassic tomorrow. I really think we're heading for 40-plus

 

[Barnack]

33 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

It is possible; presales seem pretty weak across the board. That said, for as much as The Rock's star power is probably overrated, his films tend to open over $30M with Baywatch being the major exception. Even that Hercules movie just barely missed the mark at $29.8M. 

The post joined the Fast&Furious crew Dwayne Johnson missed the 30m mark 5 times (before fast&furious was a different world for him and I imagine not really count to make prediction)

 

Journey 2: 27.3m

Snitch: 13.16m (Liongates not studio release, 2,500 theater), not really a good comparable.

Pain&Gain: 20.24m (but was not a Johnson movie, a Bay movie foremost)

Hercules 29.8m (could say 30m, but not over 30m)

Baywatch: 18.5m

 

He went over 30m outside the franchise entry an impressive 3 times already.

 

San Andreas: 55m

Central intelligence: 35m

Rampage: 36m

 

And one argument could be made about Jumanji missing that mark without him.

 

So it is easy to believe in an around mid 30 openning for Skycraper, the reviews are more than good enough for that proposition, it had the superbowl push and it is getting a franchise blockbuster type of TV suppport (targeting an audience that actually still watch ads) with good attention index metric, already getting close to 4,000 national airing for the main spot.

 

+Syfy, E!, usa network, paramount network, TNT, NBC, history channel custom made spot.

 

But also easy to believe in a 27-28m openning, it is still not a sequel with a 55% RT score and timid pre-sales, Johnson with an big production budget->big spectacle and the giant marketing that come with it, the popular and simple high concept should be enough to push it but it is never an automatic for those.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Barnack

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-11 17:00:22 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-11 16:00:00	980	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-11 16:00:00	427	Incredibles 2
2018-07-11 16:00:00	426	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-11 16:00:00	284	The First Purge
2018-07-11 16:00:00	250	Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation
2018-07-11 16:00:00	135	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-11 16:00:00	102	Skyscraper (2018)
2018-07-11 16:00:00	93	Uncle Drew
2018-07-11 16:00:00	88	Ant-Man and the Wasp 3D
2018-07-11 16:00:00	82	Oceans 8

[dxmatrixdt]

I hope Thursday preview attendance will be a good enough indicator with Skyscraper and where it will land.  Rampage was something like 2.4 previews, 35 weekend.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Why am I just now seeing that Mamma MIIa is going to be in IMAX?!

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Spagheditary said:

Why am I just now seeing that Mamma MIIa is going to be in IMAX?!

I think it's only in select territories.

[HesAPooka]

4 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-11 17:00:22 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE

Not that it's sold a lot but according to that site the Fallout numbers have more than doubled in the last hour since reactions rolled in.

[WrathOfHan]

47 minutes ago, Spagheditary said:

Why am I just now seeing that Mamma MIIa is going to be in IMAX?!

 

41 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it's only in select territories.

Yeah, Denzel is getting IMAX in the US instead.