The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

Thinking/Praying LEGO 2 and What Men Want breaksout, the former at $60M OW, the latter at $30M OW.

[Avatree]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Thinking/Praying LEGO 2 and What Men Want breaksout, the former at $60M OW, the latter at $30M OW.

60M would be good but I'm just not feeling it. Maybe its just me.

The first LEGO opened not much higher than 60M. I say anything over Batman is decent.

 

Sad that it is in this place when 4 years ago we all thought the sequel would do just as well as the first one.

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, Avatree said:

60M would be good but I'm just not feeling it. Maybe its just me.

The first LEGO opened not much higher than 60M. I say anything over Batman is decent.

 

Sad that it is in this place when 4 years ago we all thought the sequel would do just as well as the first one.

In all honesty, if they waited to the spin-offs after the sequel and the sequel came out in say 2017/18, it may have pulled a Shrek 2/DM2. The spin-offs diluted the brand.

 

I think it will benefit from lack of family movies in a while and a weak market.

[Avatree]

13 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In all honesty, if they waited to the spin-offs after the sequel and the sequel came out in say 2017/18, it may have pulled a Shrek 2/DM2. The spin-offs diluted the brand.

 

I think it will benefit from lack of family movies in a while and a weak market.

I was just about to say exactly that, they diluted the brand. Of course its possible that they didnt change anything but I do think now that we've had not just one, but two spin-offs, the novelty has disappeared. They really need to keep the audience truly caring about the characters by the end of the second movie if they want this to have any chance of increasing further down the line.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7635	10616	28.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              53

 

.4734x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 30 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-30 Comp:

 

IW:        52 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4714/11011 seats left  | 57.19% sold] 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Porthos

[boyamama]

11 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Thinking/Praying LEGO 2 and What Men Want breaksout, the former at $60M OW, the latter at $30M OW.

what men want basically a front loader...2nd week will have a huge drop.....

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, boyamama said:

what men want basically a front loader...2nd week will have a huge drop.....

Valentine's Day Thursday and 3 day holiday weekend (Pres Day) is gonna make it unlikely anything has a huge drop next weekend...unless it loses all its screens (which a new opener won't)...

[Deep Wang]

12 hours ago, Avatree said:

60M would be good but I'm just not feeling it. Maybe its just me.

The first LEGO opened not much higher than 60M.

 

69 is not much higher than 60? 

[Shivampa]

11 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

69 is not much higher than 60? 

Hey Can you please tell how much Black Panther and Infinity war made in Presales before a week of their release just want to compare it with Captain Marvel 

[Shivampa]

I think Captain Marvel will have about 8M in before the release. 4M a week before that usually doubles down to about 8M.

 

Where would this put it OW around GOTG2 or Civil war?? 

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Hey Can you please tell how much Black Panther and Infinity war made in Presales before a week of their release just want to compare it with Captain Marvel 

Don't have that info.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

I think Captain Marvel will have about 8M in before the release. 4M a week before that usually doubles down to about 8M.

 

Where would this put it OW around GOTG2 or Civil war?? 

 

If it finished with 8m, that would put it right behind GOTG2's presales.

[filmlover]

Lego 2: $50-55M

What Men Want: $18-20M

Cold Pursuit: $7-10M

The Prodigy: "Industry projections are along the lines of The Witch ($8.8M) and The Gift ($11.8M)."

 

https://deadline.com/2019/02/chris-pratt-the-lego-movie-2-box-office-opening-liam-neeson-cold-pursuit-taraji-p-henson-1202550333/

[Eric Quinn]

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1,204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1K expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516	3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200	3,511
Replicas	21	133	336	1,002
Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
Kid Who Would Be King	107	318	980	1,892
Serenity	6	128	1,074	2,708
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041	4,220
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130
What Men Want	1,383	2,505
Cold Pursuit	181	827
The Prodigy	161	359
*4pm-12am

 

Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130
What Men Want	1,383	2,505
Cold Pursuit	181	827
The Prodigy	161	359

 

Lego:

154% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (68.2M)

169% of Christopher Robin (41.6M)

85% of Grinch (57.4M)

227% of Bumblebee (49.2M)

 

This increased from every comp, especially Grinch and Bumblebee, which is always a great sign. Really feel like 50M is the floor at this point.

 

Men:

155% of I Feel Pretty (24.9M)

191% of Life of the Party (34.2M)

57% of Ocean's 8 (23.8M)

118% of A Simple Favor (18.9M)

143% of Night School (38.9M)

278% of Nobody's Fool (38.2M)

410% of Second Act (26.6M)

 

In contrast, Men's Tuesday comps are down from the Monday ones, apart from Ocean's 8, Night School and Second Act. Again, Night School feels like the best comparison for the type of movie Men is, but those drops do give me pause.

 

Alita Early

66

65

Alita

689

742

Dragon 3

446

394

Captain Marvel

2,079

1,619

Us

68

47

[MCKillswitch123]

Does anyone feel like Cold Pursuit could do better than expected? It does have really good reviews, and that might be an indicator of strong wom from the GA.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Does anyone feel like Cold Pursuit could do better than expected? It does have really good reviews, and that might be an indicator of strong wom from the GA.

I highly doubt it. The Neeson drama has completely overshadowed the movie, but even then it just looks limited in appeal (the sales around me are quite dismal too). The $7-10M tracking sounds about right.

[Shivampa]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

If it finished with 8m, that would put it right behind GOTG2's presales.

Thanks. How much did Black Panther and Avengers infinity war made in Presales 

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Thanks. How much did Black Panther and Avengers infinity war made in Presales 

 

 A lot.

[Deep Wang]

Edited February 6, 2019 by Deep Wang

[ThomasNicole]

I think CM should have 4M or more a week before the release and then finish with 9-10M presales [similar to BTAB if a remember well]