The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the IF]

6 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I suspect all except Mother's Day (which had MD in its 2nd weekend) and maybe some pre-Thanksgiving release

 

EDIT: you were right, all were Christmas period except:

• Mother's Day
• The Blind Side (Thanksgiving)
• Jingle All The Way (Thanksgiving)
• My Dog Skip (??? - March 2000)
• Leap! (??? - August 2017)
• Shrek (Wow! I think it had Memorial Day 2nd weekend though)

 

That's it for >2000 theaters

Leap had Labor Day weekend to help it increase on weekend two, while Shrek had Memorial Day. My Dog Skip is the only true anomaly.

[Eric the IF]

 

Right now it's at 6.4%

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Right now it's at 6.4%

IT’S SUCH A GOOD VIBRATION

[TalismanRing]

50 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

IT’S SUCH A GOOD VIBRATION

It would be more impressive if the holdover b.o. wasn't so pathetic.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7688	10616	27.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              68

 

.4689x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 31 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 31 Comp:

 

IW:        49 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4766/11011 seats left  | 56.72% sold] 

[Eric the IF]

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1,204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1K expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516	3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200	3,511
Replicas	21	133	336	1,002
Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
Kid Who Would Be King	107	318	980	1,892
Serenity	6	128	1,074	2,708
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041	4,220
Lego Movie 2	2,552
What Men Want	1,383
Cold Pursuit	181
The Prodigy	161
*4pm-12am

 

 

Lego Movie 2	2,552
What Men Want	1,383
Cold Pursuit	181
The Prodigy	161

 

I'll only focus on Lego and Men comps here. Four movies is overkill, and neither Pursuit or Prodigy have sold much to make me all that invested. Maybe I'll look at them later?

 

Lego:

145% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (64.1M)

163% of Christopher Robin (40.2M)

71% of Grinch (48.2M)

164% of Bumblebee (35.6M)

 

HT3 is arguably the best comp here, so Lego outpacing that is a great result. It's also not that far behind from Grinch. Despite none of the comps landing there, I feel like an opening in the 50s is still in play here.

 

Men:

159% of I Feel Pretty (25.4M)

236% of Life of the Party (42.1M)

46% of Ocean's 8 (19.1M)

245% of Simple Favor (39.3M)

132% of Night School (36.1M)

317% of Nobody's Fool (43.6M)

392% of Second Act (25.4M)

 

This outpacing Night School is a great result, although the comps here are a bit more in flux, and this does feel more of a "could go either way" scenario. I feel like an opening in the 30s or higher would be fantastic for this. Praying for Queen Taraji! 🙏

[Eric the IF]

Oh yeah, and I guess I'll add in some more upcoming releases

 

Alita Early

66

Alita

689

Dragon 3

446

Captain Marvel

2,079

Us

68

Edited February 5, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Litio]

16 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Since presales double the week of, lets just assume this is going to do at least 500k - that means that of the films I have data for, this would put it right between Emoji Movie and Orient Express.  Those opened to 24m and 28m respectively.  Next up would be Jumanji's 569k/36m opening weekend.

The increase of presales next to the release date are not exponential? Can you show an example of increase? I'm curious because the presales in Fandango increase a lot in the release week, Alita's presales began (officially) less than a week and they are pretty consistent at least at Fandango.

 

16 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

HOWEVER - the funny thing is that those aren't great comps in terms of films, just that they had similar presale/OW numbers.  The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

Valerian is based on the comics in which Star Wars was inspired / did copy / whatever. Probably the few fans who knew of that were excited.

[stripe]

That's solid for Alita & Dragon3, isn't it?

 

I have a feeling we are in for a really strong weekend, with Lego, What Men Want and Cold Pursuit overperforming. The sum of all four openers will be over 120M

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

That's solid for Alita & Dragon3, isn't it?

 

I have a feeling we are in for a really strong weekend, with Lego, What Men Want and Cold Pursuit overperforming. The sum of all four openers will be over 120M

This would require Lego and What Men Want alone to make over $100M combined. That's not happening.

[Deep Wang]

5 hours ago, Litio said:

The increase of presales next to the release date are not exponential? Can you show an example of increase? I'm curious because the presales in Fandango increase a lot in the release week, Alita's presales began (officially) less than a week and they are pretty consistent at least at Fandango.

 

When I was still working, I was getting numbers pretty consistently on Mondays and Thursday because I ALWAYS worked those days.  

 

I think @grim22 noticed it first, but the number on Thursday afternoon was about double what it was on Monday night.   I am under the impression that this is when 100% of times for the movies are released and everyone begins buying their tickets.  Obviously it wasn't perfect every time, but it happened consistently enough that I will stand by it.  Also, SW was obviously an exception to the rule, because it was already at an insane number that you can't expect to double something like 20m, lol.

 

Now, if the tickets are on sale for an extended period of time like more than month, it would start out with a bang, then cool off.  Then yes, as it got closer the sales would increase, sometimes dramatically. 

 

Alita only being on sale for like two weeks before release means that is should maintain a more even sales rate, but I would still expect it to double from what we have now.  Since it's releasing on a Wed night, it won't follow the same path as most other movies do.  

[stripe]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

This would require Lego and What Men Want alone to make over $100M combined. That's not happening.

 

Well, maybe overreacted saying it will, but...

 

Lego - 58M

What Men Want - 31M

Cold Pursuit - 19M

Prodigy - 12M

 

120M 

[Eric the IF]

My theater's starving for new blood. This weekend, King, Serenity, Aquaman, Poppins and Spider-Verse are going away, and all four openers are coming in. Lego and Men are even getting two screens. The only remaining holdovers left are Miss Bala, Glass, and Upside, and they'll probably be gone by next Thursday. Those TC drops are gonna be glorious

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

My theater's starving for new blood. This weekend, King, Serenity, Aquaman, Poppins and Spider-Verse are going away, and all four openers are coming in. Lego and Men are even getting two screens. The only remaining holdovers left are Miss Bala, Glass, and Upside, and they'll probably be gone by next Thursday. Those TC drops are gonna be glorious

@CJohn right now:

 

[Litio]

5 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

When I was still working, I was getting numbers pretty consistently on Mondays and Thursday because I ALWAYS worked those days.  

 

I think @grim22 noticed it first, but the number on Thursday afternoon was about double what it was on Monday night.   I am under the impression that this is when 100% of times for the movies are released and everyone begins buying their tickets.  Obviously it wasn't perfect every time, but it happened consistently enough that I will stand by it.  Also, SW was obviously an exception to the rule, because it was already at an insane number that you can't expect to double something like 20m, lol.

 

Now, if the tickets are on sale for an extended period of time like more than month, it would start out with a bang, then cool off.  Then yes, as it got closer the sales would increase, sometimes dramatically. 

 

Alita only being on sale for like two weeks before release means that is should maintain a more even sales rate, but I would still expect it to double from what we have now.  Since it's releasing on a Wed night, it won't follow the same path as most other movies do.  

Okay, thank you, but what I did not understand is why you think Alita will double the presales made last week. Did you make any comparison with the history of the presales of another similar film or it is a guess?

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Litio said:

Okay, thank you, but what I did not understand is why you think Alita will double the presales made last week. Did you make any comparison with the history of the presales of another similar film or it is a guess?

 

Did I not explain how most movies double in the span of a few days the week of release?   It’s not an exact science, but it happened enough to be a noticeable trend. 

[Litio]

38 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Did I not explain how most movies double in the span of a few days the week of release?   It’s not an exact science, but it happened enough to be a noticeable trend. 

Don't you have a example? Like "Jumanji had 300k in presales two weeks before the debut and finished with 550k" or something like that? 250k seems like a weak increment for Alita. I see the presales of most films at fandango growing absurdly in the week of release.

[MrGlass2]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-04 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	10.191%	4716	Glass (2019)
2	09.119%	4220	The Upside
3	07.779%	3600	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
4	06.798%	3146	Miss Bala (2019)
5	04.927%	2280	Green Book
...
7	04.404%	2038	What Men Want
22	01.119%	518	The Wandering Earth
23	01.098%	508	Cold Pursuit
35	00.568%	263	The Prodigy (2019)

Edited February 6, 2019 by MrGlass2

[YM!]

31 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

3 07.779% 3600 The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part

IT’S SUCH AS SWEET SENSATION 

 

Also:

https://deadline.com/2019/02/chris-pratt-the-lego-movie-2-box-office-opening-liam-neeson-cold-pursuit-taraji-p-henson-1202550333/

 

LEGO2: $50M-$55M

WMW: $18M-$20M

Cold Pursuit: $7M-$10M

Prodigy: along the lines of $8.8M-$11.8M (The Witch and The Gift)

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

My theater's starving for new blood. This weekend, King, Serenity, Aquaman, Poppins and Spider-Verse are going away, and all four openers are coming in. Lego and Men are even getting two screens. The only remaining holdovers left are Miss Bala, Glass, and Upside, and they'll probably be gone by next Thursday. Those TC drops are gonna be glorious

My "cheap-o" theater is clearing house, dropping all 4 of its current movies and getting Kid Who Would be King (it lasted 2 weeks in 1st run theaters - damn), A Dog's Way Home (which lasted 4 weeks), The Mule, and Bumblebee...

 

It has still not gotten Aquaman, Spidey, or Mary Poppins...so Jan movies are already bleeding to cheaps before the holiday movies...