The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/7/2019 at 10:40 AM, CoolEric258 said:

My theater's acting weird with Alita too. For whatever reason, it currently has showtimes starting at Wednesday morning and through the day. I don't know if that was a mistake, but it is kinda weird, especially when every other theater's just doing previews.

Now it's gone over a complete overhaul, and it's even more strange. It's now back to only having Wednesday previews, but now, almost all of the showtimes for this weekend are 3D, apart from one 2D show at 7. I don't know if that was a demand by Fox or Cameron, but...don't think that's a good strategy.

[TimmyRiggins]

31 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Now it's gone over a complete overhaul, and it's even more strange. It's now back to only having Wednesday previews, but now, almost all of the showtimes for this weekend are 3D, apart from one 2D show at 7. I don't know if that was a demand by Fox or Cameron, but...don't think that's a good strategy.

The good thing though is that there was this post on the HSX board saying that only theaters that have above, I believe it was 4 fl (footlamberts, brightness for 3D), are allowed to show Alita in 3D, essentially weeding out all the theaters that are showing poor 3D.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7515	10616	29.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              38

 

.4755x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 27 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-27 Comp:

 

IW:        70 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4603/11125 seats left  | 58.62% sold] 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7483	10616	29.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              32

 

.4750x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 26 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-26 Comp:

 

IW:        74 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4529/11125 seats left  | 59.29% sold] 

[Legion Again]

About halfway through the PS run now, right? When are you thinking makes sense to start looking at other comps again?

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

About halfway through the PS run now, right? When are you thinking makes sense to start looking at other comps again?

Probably around three week to go mark. One problem is I didn't start tracking BP until 22 days before release, and I have incomplete records for it until 17 days before release.  Likewise, I only have the last 21 days of tracking for DP2, as I started keeping track of that as a spur of the moment (and I'm glad I did, BTW).

 

Solo only had 20 days of presales and  JW2 22 days of pre-sales.  The only other film I tracked all the way though was FB2.  And while it did have 30 days of presales...  Well, there's a reason why I'm not including it until I include all the others. It was just so low at the beginning that any comparison is next to futile.

 

Spoiler

CM has sold more than three times as many tickets for it's premiere night as FB2 did 27 days from their respective premieres.

 

The other problem with BP is that I'm worried about a bad comp, given I have more reserved seating info now than I did then.  Honestly, I'll probably stop including BP as a reference point entirely in my tracking threads before too long.  Probably will still include it for Endgame.  But beyond that?  Maybe not.

 

So... Soon.  Just not quite yet.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7483	10616	29.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              32

 

.4750x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 26 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-26 Comp:

 

IW:        74 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4529/11125 seats left  | 59.29% sold] 

I don't know how this area performs as a sample, but if its doing almost half of Infinity War, which had like crazy presales, $160mn weekend is kind of locked as IW had more initial rush then normal film, as it happened in China or India.

[Porthos]

However, I do have something that I think is interesting to share.

 

Right now, CM has 29.51% of all seats sold for its premiere night, admittedly a partial slate only. 

 

BP was already at the 32% maker when I started tracking it 22 days out.  It finished at an amazing 70.6%

IW instantly was at 46% (rounded up) the day tickets first went on sale. It finished at a gobsmacking 86.4% with nearly 33% more showings than BP.

DP2 didn't hit the 30% marker until 3 days before release.  It rocketed up all the way to 49.3%.

Solo hit it after three days of sales, 18 days before release.  It stalled out though and 'only' hit 42.8%.

JW2 hit 30% of seats sold 1 day before release.  It managed to still hit 45.4%, despite that.

AM&TW hit 30% of seats sold the day of release, hitting 41.4% at final tracking.

Venom hit 30% of seats sold the day of release as well, coming in at 34% at final tracking.

Finally, FB2 also hit 30% of seats sold on the day of release, finishing at 32.1% at final tracking.  

 

Mind you, for whatever reason, FB2 over-performed in the Sacto market, compared to other films I've tracked.

 

CM, meanwhile, should cross the 30% seats sold in a couple of days. So lets say 24 days out, plus or minus a day.

 

And while it is true that the percentage of seats sold dips when more showings are added, those seats then get bought up by the folks who were waiting for better seats to be on sale, so it soon bounces back up.  IMO this is one reason why there are so many seats sold for films a couple of days before release:  Simply put a lot of desirable seats are made available.

 

I mention all of this to show where CM is now relative to other films crossing the 30% marker.  It might not say a lot, but I think it says a little something at least.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know how this area performs as a sample, but if its doing almost half of Infinity War, which had like crazy presales, $160mn weekend is kind of locked as IW had more initial rush then normal film, as it happened in China or India.

It's funny you mention this.  I just went back and checked.  Even if one excludes the first eight days of sales for IW locally (where it did 46 percent of its premiere night sales), it still outsold every movie I've tracked locally except for BP and DP2.  And even then, only just:

 

PREMIERE NIGHT ONLY

DP2 (entire run)       8133 tickets tracked locally (no 3D sales, many more theaters/showings locally than BP for what it's worth)

BP (entire run)          8104 tickets tracked locally

IW (T-33 to T-0)     7061 tickets tracked locally 

JW2 (entire run)        6228 tickets tracked locally

IW (T-41 to T-32)   6103 tickets tracked locally

Solo (entire run)       5789 tickets tracked locally

FB2 (entire run)        5103 tickets tracked locally (as mentioned, FB2 massively over-performed here for whatever reason) 

AM&TW (entire run)  4605 tickets tracked locally

Venom  (entire run)  4493 tickets tracked locally

CM (so far)               3133 tickets tracked locally.

 

In fact, from this point on, IW would still sell 6568 tickets over its final 25 days of pre-sales for its opening night.

 

So, yes.  IW sold an insane amount of tickets its first eight days.  It still managed to sell a metric ton more afterwards.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Firepower]

What's up with Alita pre-sales?

[MrGlass2]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-09 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	26.021%	18042	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
2	15.478%	10732	What Men Want
3	08.896%	6168	Cold Pursuit
4	05.572%	3863	The Upside
5	05.276%	3658	Glass (2019)
...
11	01.853%	1285	Alita Battle Angel
14	01.514%	1050	Isnt It Romantic
15	01.400%	971	The Wandering Earth
23	00.616%	427	Happy Death Day 2U

MT

2019-02-11 04:00:33.619996 UTC

1	33.6%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
2	10.1%	What Men Want
3	7.1%	Cold Pursuit
4	5.8%	The Upside
5	5%	Glass

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7454	10616	29.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              29

 

.4748x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 25 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-25 Comp:

 

IW:        64 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4465/11125 seats left  | 59.87% sold] 

[Shivampa]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7454	10616	29.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              29

 

.4748x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 25 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-25 Comp:

 

IW:        64 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4465/11125 seats left  | 59.87% sold] 

I think Captain Marvel is looking around 140M OW same range as GOTG vol. 2 which is excellent 

[Litio]

Alita is catching fire in fandango 

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-10 05:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	11.619%	254	Alita Battle Angel
2	11.436%	250	What Men Want
3	10.979%	240	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
4	07.731%	169	Isnt It Romantic
5	06.999%	153	Captain Marvel (2019)

[TwoMisfits]

So, seems some movie people read my posts this weekend...this morning, there are discounts aplenty online for this week's movies...should help some...

 

Alita - $4 TMobile Atom ticket deal (coming Tuesday) + new deal of $5 off 2 tickets on Atom (gonna make it really hard for me and other TMobile users to turn this down for a Friday night:)...

Isn't It Romantic - $3 off 1 ticket, $6 off 2 tickets at Atom (and $12 off 4 tickets:)

 

Nothing for Happy Death Day 2 U yet, but it's 7:30am, so they might not be up yet to post one:)...

Edited February 11, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[poweranimals]

Did MovieTicket.com get rid of the Top 5 tracking thing?

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7431	10616	30.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              23

 

.4736x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 24 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-24 Comp:

 

IW:        65 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4400/11125 seats left  | 60.45% sold] 

[Shivampa]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7431	10616	30.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              23

 

.4736x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 24 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-24 Comp:

 

IW:        65 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4400/11125 seats left  | 60.45% sold] 

Doing very bad in comparison to Infinity war.. 😂😂😂

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Doing very bad in comparison to Infinity war.. 😂😂😂

 

Yes, doing roughly half  the pre-sales of a film that took in 39m its opening night is Very Bad Indeed™. 

Edited February 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

47.36% of IW’s previews would be 18.5M previews. That’s a very plausible figure, though I think it will have a better Thursday presale multiplier. 18.5M previews would require an 8.65 internal multiplier to hit 160M, which is right in line with GotG2. On the one hand movies in generally and especially MCU probably get more Thursday loaded weekends over time, but on the other hand GotG2 was only 2 years ago and it was a sequel unlike CM.    

 

In other words:   

Porthos’s current data is super compatible with BOP’s 160M prediction   

Porthos’s current data doesn’t suggest any number all that precisely, since we don’t know how PS will move in the last 7 days, how walkup friendly it will be, how representative Sacramento will be, etc.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Thanos Legion