The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

Captain Marvel looking more and more like another Disny movie called Mary Poppins Returns

Captain Marvel will open with $120M+ at 100%.

And I'm not a fan... 

[Wonder89]

12 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Captain Marvel will open with $120M+ at 100%.

And I'm not a fan... 

I think 150/160 is the floor, but 180+ OW is very possible 

[Deep Wang]

You guys laugh, but this could pull a MPR or a Solo.

 

I don't think it will, but we need to see more data as it gets closer.  

 

It started off with such a bang that it seemed like the sky was the limit, but it has cooled off.  There is a chance that could have been it and it will play kinda standard from there.  

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

Honestly, I was on the $500m train on Captain Marvel but it's a cold fact that those presales numbers are not good. All the movies that stalled in such a way after the intial buzz had a bad end...

[john2000]

26 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

You guys laugh, but this could pull a MPR or a Solo.

 

I don't think it will, but we need to see more data as it gets closer.  

 

It started off with such a bang that it seemed like the sky was the limit, but it has cooled off.  There is a chance that could have been it and it will play kinda standard from there.  

 

 

i think you said that this happens with the most blockusters start big and cool of and then big again in the last 2 weeks .ARE the presales until now good or not bc it has become bullshit

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i think you said that this happens with the most blockusters start big and cool of and then big again in the last 2 weeks .ARE the presales until now good or not bc it has become bullshit

The impression I get is that the total number of presales is kinda good but at a daily basis it's doing pretty bad lately.

[MrGlass2]

27 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Honestly, I was on the $500m train on Captain Marvel but it's a cold fact that those presales numbers are not good. All the movies that stalled in such a way after the intial buzz had a bad end...

It had one bad day, that doesn't mean the presales aren't good.

Still locked for $150M+, and on course for $200M+ if it gets great reviews.

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The impression I get is that the total number of presales is kinda good but at a daily basis it's doing pretty bad lately.

well i think that someone who keep an eye on presales should tell us bc i dont recall anyone shat said it was doing bad lately actually i think it went up and only yesterday went down a little

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The impression I get is that the total number of presales is kinda good but at a daily basis it's doing pretty bad lately.

It’s doing great, it have just one bad day (yesterday). 

 

Also, let’s keep in mind CM have 58 days of presales, much more than almost every movie have. Of course after the initial boom things will slow down... it should increase a lot on the next days.

[JB33]

I say again: walkups will be tremendous for this. It may not reach the heights some of us thought on opening weekend but I still see something around $140M.

[Napoleon]

13 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It had one bad day, that doesn't mean the presales aren't good.

Still locked for $150M+, and on course for $200M+ if it gets great reviews.

$200 million domestic would be very mediocre for a comic book movie these days. Some people here are expecting $500 million domestic.

 

I just don't see how Captain Marvel would be that low considering how popular the genre is, and Marvel is spending a lot of money promoting it. I don't think it will make less than $300 million domestic.

[john2000]

omfg he is talking about opening weekend not lifetime gross

[terrestrial]

11 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

$200 million domestic would be very mediocre

it was not about dom final, the posts are about OW

Edited February 18, 2019 by terrestrial

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

You guys laugh, but this could pull a MPR or a Solo.

 

I don't think it will, but we need to see more data as it gets closer.  

 

It started off with such a bang that it seemed like the sky was the limit, but it has cooled off.  There is a chance that could have been it and it will play kinda standard from there.  

 

 

Honestly wouldn't be surprised at this point. Purely because it would be a fitting match to this dismal year so far.

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by feasby007

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Honestly wouldn't be surprised at this point. Purely because it would be a fitting match to this dismal year so far.

for dom

Why I really do not like BOM for ww

Quote

2019 WORLDWIDE GROSSES

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio*  Filter Annapurna Aviron ENTMP Fathom Focus Fox FUN LG/S Orion Par. Sony SPC STX Uni. WB WB (NL) ALL	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %
1	Glass	Uni.	$234.8	$104.5	44.5%	$130.3	55.5%
2	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	Uni.	$172.5	n/a	0.0%	$172.5	100.0%
3	Alita: Battle Angel	Fox	$130.9	$36.5	27.9%	$94.4	72.1%
4	Escape Room	Sony	$115.3	$55.7	48.3%	$59.6	51.7%
5	The Upside	STX	$104.0	$94.2	90.6%	$9.8	9.4%
6	Dragon Ball Super: Broly	FUN	$103.0	$30.7	29.8%	$72.3	70.2%
7	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part	WB	$97.4	$62.7	64.4%	$34.7	35.6%
8	A Dog's Way Home	Sony	$60.2	$40.3	67.0%	$19.9	33.0%
9	What Men Want	Par.	$38.7	$36.2	93.5%	$2.5	6.5%
10	Happy Death Day 2U	Uni.	$25.3	$13.5	53.4%	$11.8	46.6%

vs The-Numbers.com (who are behind with the dom part of the big nondom movies based on seemingly not really getting reported for dom)

 

Quote

Top 2018 Worldwide

 

Rank	Movie	Worldwide Box Office	Domestic Box Office	International Box Office	Domestic Share
1	Liu Lang Di Qiu	$606,867,200	$0	$606,867,200	0.00%
2	Feng Kuang De Wai Xing Ren	$318,494,000	$0	$318,494,000	0.00%
3	Fei Chi Ren Sheng	$238,460,000	$0	$238,460,000	0.00%
4	Glass	$234,846,915	$104,546,915	$130,300,000	44.52%
5	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	$172,500,000	$0	$172,500,000	0.00%
6	Alita: Battle Angel	$130,916,232	$36,516,232	$94,400,000	27.89%
7	Escape Room	$115,320,767	$55,720,767	$59,600,000	48.32%
8	Geukhanjikeob	$107,228,000	$0	$107,228,000	0.00%
9	Boonie Bears:Blast Into The Past	$103,265,000	$0	$103,265,000	0.00%
10	The Upside	$103,094,714	$94,197,031	$8,897,683	91.37%
11	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part	$97,200,359	$62,500,359	$34,700,000	64.30%
12	Xīn xǐjù zhī wáng	$81,170,018	$0	$81,170,018	0.00%
13	Bai She: Yuan Qi	$65,404,500	$0	$65,404,500	0.00%
14	A Dog’s Way Home	$64,067,452	$40,341,394	$23,726,058	62.97%
15	Da Ren Wu	$56,040,680	$0	$56,040,680	0.00%
16	Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au bon dieu?	$54,187,008	$0	$54,187,008	0.00%
17	What Men Want	$38,415,328	$35,915,328	$2,500,000	93.49%
18	Masukarêdo hoteru	$29,577,540	$0	$29,577,540	0.00%
19	Cold Pursuit	$26,381,332	$21,122,332	$5,259,000	80.07%
20	Happy Death Day 2U	$25,031,500	$13,231,500	$11,800,000	52.86%

Glass is not #1, and Happy Death Day 2U even farer away from #10

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

for dom

Why I really do not like BOM for ww

vs The-Numbers.com (who are behind with the dom part of the big nondom movies based on seemingly not really getting reported for dom)

 

Glass is not #1, and Happy Death Day 2U even farer away from #10

Well, yes, I meant domestic  

 

China has been rocking it this year (even before CNY) and South Korea is blowing well too. 

[Eric Prime]

I mentioned this before, but I've been compiling a spreadsheet that records all of the Fandango Pulse activity, beginning with Glass and continuing onwards with all the bigly tentpoles in the near future.

 

Obviously, this is very early, and the only thing I have data for this out is Us, which is...not doing Captain Marvel numbers, but I'd argue the movie is doing pretty damn good in presales. In fact, it's doing much better now than it did a month ago.

 

Outside of the first couple days, Captain Marvel was hitting numbers in the hundreds throughout January. From 800 down to 700 down to 500 down to even 300. But even when the movie was hitting those numbers, it was still pretty strong. It was consistently above Dragon 3 at the same point, and was either above or just slightly behind Lego 2 at the same point. Of course, this stuff is apples and oranges, considering those movies are animated and skew younger than CM, but it shows that it was doing okay business.

 

But after the Super Bowl spot happened, Captain Marvel saw a second wind in pre-sales, with 2,500+ tickets sold on that Sunday. It was the best result since its fourth day of presales. And since then, it's consistently hit at least 1,000 ever since. The only exception was Saturday the 9th with 865 tickets sold. But that's it.

 

And at the same point in time, it was above stuff like Dragon 3 and Alita. Alita didn't crack 1,000 until the Sunday before its premiere. And even then, while it hit 1,381 tickets at that time, Captain Marvel sold 1,469 tickets. Considering Captain Marvel was coming out in a month and Alita was coming out in 4 days, that says a lot. Although Alita would get above Captain Marvel the next day and onwards, pretty much most big movies rake in a lot of their presale tickets in the Monday-Thursday before it opens, so it's not really anything to get nervous about.

 

And again, despite the apples and oranges comparison, yesterday CM sold more tickets than Dragon 3 on the Sunday before showtimes (1,465 Dragon, 1,565 Marvel). And despite what @Porthos had tracked, Sunday's results were the second-biggest for that week, only behind Monday.

 

Now granted, the movie coming out so soon did play a part in this recent spike and these good numbers, but I feel the fact the film has outpaced several big movies, including direct comps like Alita shows that Captain Marvel's presales are doing fine.

 

And of course this isn't to discredit what @Porthos or @Deep Wang and their findings. They're smart people who know what they're doing and are wonderful for developing this kind of information.

 

But it's premature to come in and troll "ZOMG CAPTAIN MARVEL IS DOOMED" and this is coming from someone who is more conservatively predicting an opening O/U Hunger Games (LOL at this being conservative), as Fandango shows presales are pretty solid at the moment.

 

TL;DR Captain Marvel's doing good in presales. It's consistently done better than other movies at the same point in time. It's seen a second wind ever since its Super Bowl spot, and has consistently passed the 1,000 ticket mark. Don't be a weenie

[terrestrial]

Liu Lang Di Qiu aka (The?) Wandering Earth was ~ last week with then only 33 screens #10 in dom, but it wasn't added into the top 10 chart time-near or at all.

What might be a big missed opportunity I e.g. do look into top 10 to look as a first step out into what might be interesting to watch in a cinema

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I mentioned this before, but I've been compiling a spreadsheet that records all of the Fandango Pulse activity, beginning with Glass and continuing onwards with all the bigly tentpoles in the near future.

 

Obviously, this is very early, and the only thing I have data for this out is Us, which is...not doing Captain Marvel numbers, but I'd argue the movie is doing pretty damn good in presales. In fact, it's doing much better now than it did a month ago.

 

Outside of the first couple days, Captain Marvel was hitting numbers in the hundreds throughout January. From 800 down to 700 down to 500 down to even 300. But even when the movie was hitting those numbers, it was still pretty strong. It was consistently above Dragon 3 at the same point, and was either above or just slightly behind Lego 2 at the same point. Of course, this stuff is apples and oranges, considering those movies are animated and skew younger than CM, but it shows that it was doing okay business.

 

But after the Super Bowl spot happened, Captain Marvel saw a second wind in pre-sales, with 2,500+ tickets sold on that Sunday. It was the best result since its fourth day of presales. And since then, it's consistently hit at least 1,000 ever since. The only exception was Saturday the 9th with 865 tickets sold. But that's it.

 

And at the same point in time, it was above stuff like Dragon 3 and Alita. Alita didn't crack 1,000 until the Sunday before its premiere. And even then, while it hit 1,381 tickets at that time, Captain Marvel sold 1,469 tickets. Considering Captain Marvel was coming out in a month and Alita was coming out in 4 days, that says a lot. Although Alita would get above Captain Marvel the next day and onwards, pretty much most big movies rake in a lot of their presale tickets in the Monday-Thursday before it opens, so it's not really anything to get nervous about.

 

And again, despite the apples and oranges comparison, yesterday CM sold more tickets than Dragon 3 on the Sunday before showtimes (1,465 Dragon, 1,565 Marvel). And despite what @Porthos had tracked, Sunday's results were the second-biggest for that week, only behind Monday.

 

Now granted, the movie coming out so soon did play a part in this recent spike and these good numbers, but I feel the fact the film has outpaced several big movies, including direct comps like Alita shows that Captain Marvel's presales are doing fine.

 

And of course this isn't to discredit what @Porthos or @Deep Wang and their findings. They're smart people who know what they're doing and are wonderful for developing this kind of information.

 

But it's premature to come in and troll "ZOMG CAPTAIN MARVEL IS DOOMED" and this is coming from someone who is more conservatively predicting an opening O/U Hunger Games (LOL at this being conservative), as Fandango shows presales are pretty solid at the moment.

 

TL;DR Captain Marvel's doing good in presales. It's consistently done better than other movies at the same point in time. It's seen a second wind ever since its Super Bowl spot, and has consistently passed the 1,000 ticket mark. Don't be a weenie

Fantastically detailed post with lots of facts and figures to backup your points. Honestly the best post I've read on here all week. Thank you

 

Is there any chance you could share the spreadsheet? Such as a protected google sheet (meaning others can look but not edit), that way others could make conclusions from it as well. If this is not possible / you're not happy doing it then no worries, just thought I'd ask anyway. 

 

Seriously, thanks for the post, very refreshing :)

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Fantastically detailed post with lots of facts and figures to backup your points. Honestly the best post I've read on here all week. Thank you

 

Is there any chance you could share the spreadsheet? Such as a protected google sheet (meaning others can look but not edit), that way others could make conclusions from it as well. If this is not possible / you're not happy doing it then no worries, just thought I'd ask anyway. 

 

Seriously, thanks for the post, very refreshing :)

I might consider that if there's a strong demand for it