The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Shivampa]

32 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I mentioned this before, but I've been compiling a spreadsheet that records all of the Fandango Pulse activity, beginning with Glass and continuing onwards with all the bigly tentpoles in the near future.

 

Obviously, this is very early, and the only thing I have data for this out is Us, which is...not doing Captain Marvel numbers, but I'd argue the movie is doing pretty damn good in presales. In fact, it's doing much better now than it did a month ago.

 

Outside of the first couple days, Captain Marvel was hitting numbers in the hundreds throughout January. From 800 down to 700 down to 500 down to even 300. But even when the movie was hitting those numbers, it was still pretty strong. It was consistently above Dragon 3 at the same point, and was either above or just slightly behind Lego 2 at the same point. Of course, this stuff is apples and oranges, considering those movies are animated and skew younger than CM, but it shows that it was doing okay business.

 

But after the Super Bowl spot happened, Captain Marvel saw a second wind in pre-sales, with 2,500+ tickets sold on that Sunday. It was the best result since its fourth day of presales. And since then, it's consistently hit at least 1,000 ever since. The only exception was Saturday the 9th with 865 tickets sold. But that's it.

 

And at the same point in time, it was above stuff like Dragon 3 and Alita. Alita didn't crack 1,000 until the Sunday before its premiere. And even then, while it hit 1,381 tickets at that time, Captain Marvel sold 1,469 tickets. Considering Captain Marvel was coming out in a month and Alita was coming out in 4 days, that says a lot. Although Alita would get above Captain Marvel the next day and onwards, pretty much most big movies rake in a lot of their presale tickets in the Monday-Thursday before it opens, so it's not really anything to get nervous about.

 

And again, despite the apples and oranges comparison, yesterday CM sold more tickets than Dragon 3 on the Sunday before showtimes (1,465 Dragon, 1,565 Marvel). And despite what @Porthos had tracked, Sunday's results were the second-biggest for that week, only behind Monday.

 

Now granted, the movie coming out so soon did play a part in this recent spike and these good numbers, but I feel the fact the film has outpaced several big movies, including direct comps like Alita shows that Captain Marvel's presales are doing fine.

 

And of course this isn't to discredit what @Porthos or @Deep Wang and their findings. They're smart people who know what they're doing and are wonderful for developing this kind of information.

 

But it's premature to come in and troll "ZOMG CAPTAIN MARVEL IS DOOMED" and this is coming from someone who is more conservatively predicting an opening O/U Hunger Games (LOL at this being conservative), as Fandango shows presales are pretty solid at the moment.

 

TL;DR Captain Marvel's doing good in presales. It's consistently done better than other movies at the same point in time. It's seen a second wind ever since its Super Bowl spot, and has consistently passed the 1,000 ticket mark. Don't be a weenie

Wow.. You are fantastic. I am cautious about this Movie. But either way your analysis was good. And very informative than others

[lorddemaxus]

THR updated their Captain Marvel predictions:

 

Quote

Tracking suggests Captain Marvel, starring Brie Larson, will open to $120 million or more domestically.

 

 

[Porthos]

Wow, what the hell happened to this thread overnight? 

 

First off, fantastic analysis, @CoolEric258. 👍  Haven't digested it in full yet but I know I'll come back to in over the next couple of days and look it fully when I have the time.

 

Secondly, there is a bit of a danger with just looking at any given day's report I give, as it's not showing the granular data at each specific theater AND it isn't showing what's been done at each theater already.  It's a '30,000 foot look' at things and meant to be so.  At the same time it is just one market in the US, meaning on any given day there is the possibility for random variation from a national standpoint.

 

Finally... I think we'll all have a better idea of how this will play once the social media embargo drops tomorrow. Will there be any sort of noticeable boost in ticket sales?  And if so, for how long?

 

But even there, that's just a 'better idea', as this insanely long pre-sale window really is making comps a tad more difficult than normal.

[Porthos]

BTW, the Black Panther comps start tonight.  Just remember that pre-sales exploded after its world premiere (at least locally but I also presume nationally), which will start being reflected with tomorrow's report.  Thus even here a like-for-like won't be really applicable as BP is about to take off like a rocket into the heavens.

 

Also there is the minor (i.e. not so) inconvenience that I simply have more tracking sources 13 months later on than I did then, including a whole new theater.  That introduces a bias in the raw number of tickets sold.  On the other hand, that's why I've been ALSO giving the percentage of all seats sold data point as that should be much more accurate measurement point (though, even here, there are quibbles as some theaters perform better than others).

 

If I have the time and I can easily extract the data I MIGHT try to do a like-for-like comp with CM and BP and see what I get.  But extracting old data like that is kind of a PITA, so I might not unless I really feel motivated to do it.

 

Either way, it's a new data point and perhaps the most relevant of the ones I have (not having anything at this level of grandularity before 2018).  Just... don't take it as Holy Writ, but instead look at it in context and more of a daily snapshot and not a projection of where CM will finish up.

[TwoMisfits]

Here's the thing on comparing Alita Fandango presales to future movies...

 

Alita had 2 major Atom ticket presale deals...and none on Fandango...so, presales were probably being driven more to the "untracked" presale database than the tracked ones (Fandango and MT.com)...

 

So, Alita's presales will be most valuable to compare when similar Atom-only deals come out for other movies...but maybe not so much to a "no deal" or a "Fandango deal" movie...or to a method like Porthos uses, where an entire city's sales are tracked (so you mitigate the effects of any one deal by offsetting it with sites that don't have them)...

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[aliadiere29]

I do agree the hype for Captain Marvel has died down. I think the marketing has been poor to an extent. 

 

I do believe it'll get around 100m to 115m opening weekend though. But I do believe it'll have a massive drop in its 2nd weekend.

[Napoleon]

55 minutes ago, aliadiere29 said:

I do agree the hype for Captain Marvel has died down. I think the marketing has been poor to an extent. 

 

I do believe it'll get around 100m to 115m opening weekend though. But I do believe it'll have a massive drop in its 2nd weekend.

What do you mean by poor marketing? Because Disney just paid a lot of money for a tv spot during the Super Bowl commercials, and those cost between 5 and 10 million dollars last time I checked. They are spending a lot of money promoting this movie. Maybe we get a sense of poor marketing effort because the footage looks cheap, this movie just doesn't look any good.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

What do you mean by poor marketing? Because Disney just paid a lot of money for a tv spot during the Super Bowl commercials, and those cost between 5 and 10 million dollars last time I checked. They are spending a lot of money promoting this movie. Maybe we get a sense of poor marketing effort because the footage looks cheap, this movie just doesn't look any good.

Isn't it set in the 90s? Perhaps they wanted to be authentic and are using 90s equipment to make it.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What do you mean by poor marketing?....Maybe we get a sense of poor marketing effort because the footage looks cheap, this movie just doesn't look any good.

It is a Disney Marvel movie fair to assume poor marketing does not mean small budget.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Isn't it set in the 90s? Perhaps they wanted to be authentic and are using 90s equipment to make it.

 

They are using stuff I am not sure were realistically usable (or existing) 4 year's ago:

 

 

Camera	Arri Alexa 65, Panavision Sphero 65 Lenses  Panavision Millennium DXL  RED Weapon 8K VV Monstro
Negative Format	DXL RAW (8K)  Redcode RAW (8K)
Cinematographic Process	DXL RAW (8K) (source format)  Dolby Vision  Redcode RAW (8K) (source format)

 

 

Apparently they tend to shoot with a lot of camera at the same time like a live tv show, must be quite the challenge to make them look really good.

[aliadiere29]

47 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What do you mean by poor marketing? Because Disney just paid a lot of money for a tv spot during the Super Bowl commercials, and those cost between 5 and 10 million dollars last time I checked. They are spending a lot of money promoting this movie. Maybe we get a sense of poor marketing effort because the footage looks cheap, this movie just doesn't look any good.

I meant in terms how they've handled the marketing, not by the amount they've spent on it. They've obviously spent a lot on the movie.

[Premium George]

Captain Marvel is not bringing the best to BOT.

[tupek]

I know everyone is talking about CM but how is HTTYD3 doing in presales? That movie is opening in a few days.

[Eric Furiosa]

DO NOT QUOTE THIS POST

 

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1,204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1K expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516	3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200	3,511
Replicas	21	133	336	1,002
Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
Kid Who Would Be King	107	318	980	1,892
Serenity	6	128	1,074	2,708
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041	4,220
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,320
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5,367	12,411	12,304
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445	5,825
Alita Battle Angel (Thu)	4,252	6,072	11,483	15,500
How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165
*4pm-12am

 

Fandango App

Monday

How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165

 

Dragon 3 Comps:

18% of Incredibles 2 (32.6M)

239% of Christopher Robin (58.7M)

224% of Nutcracker (45.7M)

104% of Grinch (70.3M)

100% of Spider-Verse (35.4M)

240% of Bumblebee (51.9M)

146% of Lego Movie 2 (49.8M)

 

This is basically all over the place. I want to say breakout...but I remember thinking presales for Lego 2 were doing good, and that was a huge whiff. This might also skew towards an older audience like Incredibles and Spider-Verse, and those are much lower than the other movies...I'll just be conservative here this time.

 

Family Comps:

16% of The Hate U Give's 2K expansion ($1.2M)

31% of On the Basis of Sex's 2K expansion ($1.9M)

 

There's no beating around the bush here. This is an awful Monday for Fighting with my Family. But maybe things will perk up in the  coming days?

 

Upcoming releases

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Captain Marvel

1,902

Us

35

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7179	10705	32.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              41

 

1.5657x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4800x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.7059x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1641x as many tickets sold as Solo 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

3.0634x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.4486x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

* See next post for different comps with BP

 

Day T-17 Comp:

 

BP:        66 tickets sold [1 sellout/66 showings     |      4332/6584 seas left  | 34.20% sold]

IW:        93 tickets sold [2 sellouts/116 showings |   3779/11125 seats left  | 66.03% sold]

DP2:     83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |   9690/11757 seats left  | 17.58% sold]

Solo:   116 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |     6319/9348 seats left  | 32.40% sold]

JW2:      96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8962/10113 seats left  | 11.38% sold]

FB2:      26 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11937/13377 seats left  | 10.76% sold]

[Porthos]

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	76	5411	8106	33.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              28

 

1.1967x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	82	6028	9080	33.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              33

 

1.3552x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	76	5411	8106	33.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              28

 

1.1967x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	82	6028	9080	33.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              33

 

1.3552x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

A bit of explanation for having two charts:

 

I added separate charts for one with Regal Delta Shores and one without because a brand new theater will attract folks who weren't going to go at all, but it ALSO has to attract folks who would have went to a different theater. Thus cutting it out completely will bias the results too much in the other direction.

 

Actually a tiny bit surprised CM is doing as well as it is on a pure like-for-like comparison.  But that's the nearly month long head start as well as the massive positive WOM from both BP and IW at work, I suspect.

 

Still, any way you slice it, a very good start compared to BP.  Not that I expect it to replicate it the rest of the way, naturally.   

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

1.5657x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 17 days before release.

.4800x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 17 days before release.

Real quick concrete demonstration of how important the last 17 days are here. IW was at 3.26x BP, and has a preview night of 1.55x BP.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, terrestrial said:

for dom

Why I really do not like BOM for ww

vs The-Numbers.com (who are behind with the dom part of the big nondom movies based on seemingly not really getting reported for dom)

 

Glass is not #1, and Happy Death Day 2U even farer away from #10

There's an Indian film Uri- The Surgical Strike as well. It has grossed $39mn in India, $4mn in USA and $3mn  in rest, a total of $46mn. That would be #17.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

There's an Indian film Uri- The Surgical Strike as well. It has grossed $39mn in India, $4mn in USA and $3mn  in rest, a total of $46mn. That would be #17.

India isn't included in their International market area yet. For the moment its China and SK for Asia. 

The rest in spoilers, I am over my grrr-BOM-ww-chart-rant from yesterday
 

Spoiler

 

But it does has at least an own entry, the details will be later into the year be more actual

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Uri-The-Surgical-Strike-(India)-(2019)#tab=summary

Then it will get added to its correct position they show a long list for 2019 already (strangely split up to #1-#20, and #21-...)

Btw Uri -... is not on the 'official' ww chart by Comscore neither. What might be the reason they do not have it yet.

Could be a thing of finding ongoing, reliable, and payable sources.

The-Numbers at least is open to suggestions (even if it can take time, they seem to do/add a lot per hand / manually if its non-dom #) and for the markets they do add they deliver partly way longer charts (similar BOM) than all other sources I do know for those not only top 10 or top 20, but its more simple to find per country they do follow than at BOM in my POV.

BOM too has an entry, but does again not add the non-dom details to the summary page of the movie, its also not on their 2019 worldwide chart.

 

I prefer it if a website does not release a ww chart if it is incomplete in such a way.