The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:
 

CM: 650/15 – yesterday 351/15, 85% up; Halloween had 158/15 minutes, BR 142/15, Fantastic Beasts 2 196/15, Glass 113/15 all same day and time of the day
 

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:

CM: 884/15 (+/- 5 tickets, it was nearly uncountable from time to time) – yesterday (where I counted a bit later in the day so it's in disfavor of CM today) it were 635/15, 39% up; BR had 201/15 minutes, FB2 309/15, Glass 156/15 all same day and time of the day.

Overall still very good.

sorry but can i aks if the reaction to the movie helped ? also how is ow looking ?

[Cooper Legion]

To match BP’s Wednesday Fandango bump requires +10%, for about 41k. To match IW’s Wednesday Fandango bump takes +25%, for about 46k.      

 

Currently:   

12:00  40.9k

13:00 41.7k

14:00 43.1k     

15:00  43.7k

16:00  45.3k

 

Think it will outgrow both, but with 12 hours to go could always level off.

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

Taking a glance at the 24 hour rolling tracker for Fandango and @CoolEric258's running hourly total on his personal spreadsheet, looking like there's a strong chance CM beats BP again on their equivalent Wed of premiere week.

 

Already at 20.1k from CoolEric258 comp for the day and the rolling 24 hour counter is at 43.08k (CM 2019 [34.65k] + CM [8.32k] + CM Fan Event [.12k]).  For comparison, BP did 39.93k on its Wed.  Can't imagine that the rolling 24 hour counter will go down much in the next 11 hours.

 

IW, naturally, is out of reach at 68.8k

[Cooper Legion]

By the way, do we have any idea still why there are these separate CM vs CM 2019 listings on the tracker? Don’t recall that for other movies. I’m like 95% confident that they represent mutually exclusive groups of ticket sales, but it would be really bad for the data if not.

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

By the way, do we have any idea still why there are these separate CM vs CM 2019 listings on the tracker? Don’t recall that for other movies. I’m like 95% confident that they represent mutually exclusive groups of ticket sales, but it would be really bad for the data if not.

"Captain Marvel" = IMAX and 3D.

"Captain Marvel (2019)" = Regular.

"Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event" = Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event

Edited March 6, 2019 by MrGlass2

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

By the way, do we have any idea still why there are these separate CM vs CM 2019 listings on the tracker? Don’t recall that for other movies. I’m like 95% confident that they represent mutually exclusive groups of ticket sales, but it would be really bad for the data if not.

The hourly and 24 hour tracker has Regular and Imax showings separate (unsure where 3D is added for the 24 hour) however, the total weekend tracker combines everything http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

By the way, do we have any idea still why there are these separate CM vs CM 2019 listings on the tracker? Don’t recall that for other movies. I’m like 95% confident that they represent mutually exclusive groups of ticket sales, but it would be really bad for the data if not.

I presume akvalley uses some sort of automatic concentrator, looking for key words to group movies together in the rolling tracker, as it'd be insane for him to do it manually for all movies

 

A quick glance at the hour-to-hour tracker gives:

 

2019-03-06 13:00:00	2006	Captain Marvel (2019)

as one logical grouping and

2019-03-06 13:00:00	234	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-06 13:00:00	200	Captain Marvel 3D

as another group.  And finally

 

2019-03-06 13:00:00	15	Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event

 

As the last.

 

Now that I think about it, it's more likely down to a Fandango code of some sort, but I wouldn't rule out an automated title analyzer.  A complicated Excel/Google spreadsheet function at work, in other words. 

 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Captain Marvel" = IMAX and 3D.

"Captain Marvel (2019)" = Regular.

Ahh, thanks, that makes sense.   But I have to admit, this part 

 

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

"Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event" = Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event

was really unexpected 

[john2000]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Ahh, thanks, that makes sense.   But I have to admit, this part 

 

was really unexpected 

any change about ow ?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

The hourly and 24 hour tracker has Regular and Imax showings separate (unsure where 3D is added for the 24 hour) however, the total weekend tracker combines everything http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

Thanks for that link, as I was thinking about it this morning.  That's the one that breaks down sales by what day the movie is playing.

 

For CM we get:

 

10	2019-03-06	WED	Captain Marvel
74565	2019-03-07	THU	Captain Marvel
66420	2019-03-08	FRI	Captain Marvel
57944	2019-03-09	SAT	Captain Marvel
25159	2019-03-10	SUN	Captain Marvel

Anyone want to take a crack at trying to analyze this?  Remembering that it's nowhere near a final look at it, of course.

 

PS:  @grim22   Any chance we can get this link added to the OP?  It's useful for seeing what days are getting the sales and whatnot.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos
tagged the wrong mod on the OP. Sorry, DeeCee!

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

any change about ow ?

Yep massive change, looking at O/U Infinity War now! 

[Eric Prime]

Dumbo has showtimes up, though you can't purchase them yet. Previews start at 6, and assuming you're allowed to purchase starting on Monday the 11th, then that potential "4/2 Endgame tickets on sale" leak made a while back has more validity to it.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Dumbo has showtimes up, though you can't purchase them yet. Previews start at 6, and assuming you're allowed to purchase starting on Monday the 11th, then that potential "4/2 Endgame tickets on sale" leak made a while back has more validity to it.

any idea when dumbo embargo will lift ?

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Dumbo has showtimes up, though you can't purchase them yet. Previews start at 6, and assuming you're allowed to purchase starting on Monday the 11th, then that potential "4/2 Endgame tickets on sale" leak made a while back has more validity to it.

Think it's worth tracking Dumbo on my end?  What's the scuttlebutt on its OW chances, anyway. If it's anything under 80 to 90 OW, I probably won't bother. I really kinda want to take a break before IW storms across the box office, after all.

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, john2000 said:

any change about ow ?

I’ve just accepted at this point that presales will be nutty, way more than I expected even a week ago. Think previews in the ballpark of 22-26, but I’m starting to put more stock in the “MCU is notably more presale heavy and Thursday weighted post IW” hypothesis. So if it pulls 26M previews, I just can’t see that leading to a normal first entry internal multiplier of 8x for 208.     

 

Maybe something like 160-195 is my expectations atm, but the more PS’s outstrip BP the more it seems like we might not have any great comps 🤷‍♂️

[Stewart]

On 2/20/2019 at 12:10 PM, feasby007 said:

I just found this...

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NBK-Sj8qK3GXl-iOdHYeD94YRNxWJ9HqZ9OKdGoSx2o/edit#gid=0

 

...

 

This one is comparable to the data we already have.

 

TOTAL SOLD FOR EACH DAY:

Day	Tickets Sold
THU	112340
FRI	147364
SAT	146654
SUN	113155

 

 

I don't have much time, but I think collaboratively people could go through this and fish out the information to compare

 

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks for that link, as I was thinking about it this morning.  That's the one that breaks down sales by what day the movie is playing.

 

For CM we get:

 

10	2019-03-06	WED	Captain Marvel
74565	2019-03-07	THU	Captain Marvel
66420	2019-03-08	FRI	Captain Marvel
57944	2019-03-09	SAT	Captain Marvel
25159	2019-03-10	SUN	Captain Marvel

Anyone want to take a crack at trying to analyze this?  Remembering that it's nowhere near a final look at it, of course.

 

PS:  @grim22   Any chance we can get this link added to the OP?  It's useful for seeing what days are getting the sales and whatnot.

I posted BP's finals back on page 848 or something (I calculated using the historical record akvalley has stored. 

 

This suggests that CM already has 25.2 * (74565 / 112340) = 16.7m for Thursday Previews. And that's without the two biggest presale days of its run to come!

[Eric Prime]

Just now, Porthos said:

Think it's worth tracking Dumbo on my end?  What's the scuttlebutt on its OW chances, anyway. If it's anything under 80 to 90 OW, I probably won't bother. I really kinda want to take a break before IW storms across the box office, after all.

Nah. It's generally considered to open to around Cinderella (60M give or take 10M) by pundits and peeps here. It also doesn't really match with any of the comps you made. I definitely will track it though.

[andersonhoran]

4 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

CM starting to catch up to BP again on MT

prediction update?

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’ve just accepted at this point that presales will be nutty, way more than I expected even a week ago. Think previews in the ballpark of 22-26, but I’m starting to put more stock in the “MCU is notably more presale heavy and Thursday weighted post IW” hypothesis. So if it pulls 26M previews, I just can’t see that leading to a normal first entry internal multiplier of 8x for 208.     

 

Maybe something like 160-195 is my expectations atm, but the more PS’s outstrip BP the more it seems like we might not have any great comps 🤷‍♂️

ok thank you anyway i think that at this point seems a 400 dom and maybe a 600  overseas is likely at least ( i heard from many people who saw the movie probably from others countries still though that they think it was really good we will see ) 

Edited March 6, 2019 by john2000

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

 

I posted BP's finals back on page 848 or something (I calculated using the historical record akvalley has stored. 

 

This suggests that CM already has 25.2 * (74565 / 112340) = 16.7m for Thursday Previews. And that's without the two biggest presale days of its run to come!

From last night:

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel has now blown past the final tracked total for Solo, here in Sacramento, at the equivalent theaters tracked:

 

Solo at stop of tracking*:  5789 tickets sold (14.1m nationally)

Captain Marvel, so far:      6156 tickets sold (???) (not including new tracking sources)

* approx 30 minutes sooner than other films, but, eh in this case

 

It's also knocking on the door of JW2:

 

Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking:  6228 tickets sold (15.3m nationally).

 

And there are still two days to go.  Well, one and three quarters (I stop tracking around 60 to 90 minutes before the main showtimes of the night, more or less). 

 

 

6156/5789 = 1.0634

6156/6228 = 0.9884

 

1.0634 x 14.1 (Solo) = 14.9939m

0.9884 x 15.3 (JW2)  = 15.1231m

Your Comp               =  16.7m

 

They're all in the same ballpark is more or less what I'm saying.