The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

13 minutes ago, Menor said:

Deadline will drop an estimate in a few hours probably, although they're a little irregular with their timing. It'll be a range anyway, so probably not that useful

They may not drop an estimate at all as they haven’t done that for any of the May openers. and before someone says #Notanevent for Pika and Wick, we got early estimates for Shazam!

 

So pretty much we may not get an estimate or we will get some range like “Aladdin is on a magic carpet ride heading for a $6M Thursday night preview with some sources saying $10M is possible.” 

[YM!]

Aladdin 

 

North Shore:

6:00 - 100/301 - UltraScreen 

6:30 - 35/67 

7:00 - 70/151

9:00 - 51/301 - UltraScreen 

9:30 - 26/67

10:15 - 11/151

 

Menominee Falls:

6:00 - 80/151 - SuperScreen 

7:00 - 6/98 - 3D

7:20 - 10/99 

9:10 - 29/151 - SuperScreen 

10:10 - 7/98

Edited May 24, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

10 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Going to track some summer movies. Just preview night though.

 

Cineplex - Scotiabank Montreal

 

ALADDIN - THURSDAY MAY 23 (REGULAR 3D)

 

7:50pm - 117/390

10:50pm - 4/390

Final Update for Aladdin

 

ALADDIN - THURSDAY MAY 23 (REGULAR 3D)

 

7:50pm - 214/390

10:50pm - 19/390

[VanillaSkies]

16 minutes ago, Nova said:

They may not drop an estimate at all as they haven’t done that for any of the May openers. and before someone says #Notanevent for Pika and Wick, we got early estimates for Shazam!

 

So pretty much we may not get an estimate or we will get some range like “Aladdin is on a magic carpet ride heading for a $6M Thursday night preview with some sources saying $10M is possible.” 

Haha 6 million - 10 million is pretty much a given

So yeah, that would be a VERY Deadline update...

[cax16]

Aladdin (May 23rd first update)

 

7:30 - 96/390

10:30 - 27/390

 

Aladdin (May 23rd Final update)

 

7:30 - 167/390

10:30 - 46/390

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, Nova said:

They may not drop an estimate at all as they haven’t done that for any of the May openers. and before someone says #Notanevent for Pika and Wick, we got early estimates for Shazam!

 

So pretty much we may not get an estimate or we will get some range like “Aladdin is on a magic carpet ride heading for a $6M Thursday night preview with some sources saying $10M is possible.” 

This, 100%...but I think it would be "heading for $5M+ with some sources saying it could go much, much higher and other sources saying even $10M could be in play":)...gotta make the window wider to not miss:)...

[Menor the Destroyer]

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

Imo this akvalley link should also be on the first post of this thread, it's loaded with good info 

[Old Spice]

Aladdin preview night report for Salt Lake City. Cinemark Sugarhouse Luxury 10, eight showings, all 2D. Posted 15 minutes before first showtime.

 

6:00 PM 88/104

6:30 28/47

7:00 50/62

7:50 29/48

9:05 49/104

9:40 0/47

10:05 6/62

10:55 6/48

Total 256/522 49%

138% of Pika at the same time = 75.2 OW

 

Utahans love their Disney, so it's no surprise that Aladdin is over-indexing out here. The only comp I have is Pika and that leads to 75.2 without even accounting for the expected much stronger Sunday hold. Assuming at least decent WOM, I can't see how this opens below 70M 3-day.

Edited May 23, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Litio]

Old 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Litio

[Tinalera]

Heres a early look at tomorrow friday 24

 

Aladdin silvercity london may 24

IMAX
130 11/323
435 39/323
50/626

 

Recliner
1230 3/131
1255 6/98
325 2/129
400 14/98
630 (3d) 38/142
710 70/98
925 (3d) 13/142
1000 22/98

 

Regular 
740 110/323
1000 4/323

 

Westmount 
Vip
35 4/60
630 13/60
1000 7/60

 

Avx
100/173
410 10/173
710 111/173
1000 30/173
 

[Cooper Legion]

On 5/22/2019 at 5:15 PM, Thanos Legion said:

We now interrupt your regu... errr, guess not. So happens that the “new #1 update“ and the “end of day update” coincide precisely this time.  

 

17 PT 5/22/19 (End of Weds)   

1	28.9%	Aladdin
2	24.9%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	14.2%	Avengers: Endgame
4	10.3%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	3%    The Hustle

I really wasn’t expecting it to hit #1 today. It’s facing around the same amount of completion as Wick, maybe the 4th day is giving it a nice boost in presales?   

 

Here’s last Wednesday for comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

17 PT 5/15/19 (End of Wed)

1	31%	Avengers: Endgame
2	23.4%	Detective Pikachu
3	16.5%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
4	4.9%	The Hustle
5	3.4%	Long Shot

 

17 PT 5/23/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	52.5%	Aladdin
2	13.9%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	11.7%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.8%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	2.4%    Brightburn

 

First non-Endgame movie to comprise a majority in a looooong time.  MT continues to look notably stronger for it than Pika or Wick.  

 

3 big holdovers yesterday vs today % of non-Aladdin sales:

Wick 35-> 29.3%

Endgame 20->24.6%

Pika 14.5->14.3%

Edited May 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[YM!]

Aladdin seems to be overperforming at North shore and underperforming at Menominee. 🤔

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/23/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	52.5%	Aladdin
2	13.9%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	11.7%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.8%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	2.4%    Brightburn

 

First non-Endgame movie to comprise a majority in a looooong time.  MT continues to look notably stronger for it than Pika or Wick.  

 

3 big holdovers yesterday vs today % of non-Aladdin sales:

Wick 35-> 29.3%

Endgame 20->24.6%

Pika 14.5->14.3%

Out of curiosity, why is Endgame showing such strength today on MT vs. the other holdovers?
It's daily gross was very close to Pika yesterday, and today it's almost doubling it on MT.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Out of curiosity, why is Endgame showing such strength today on MT vs. the other holdovers?
It's daily gross was very close to Pika yesterday, and today it's almost doubling it on MT.

Double features. 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Out of curiosity, why is Endgame showing such strength today on MT vs. the other holdovers?
It's daily gross was very close to Pika yesterday, and today it's almost doubling it on MT.

Yeah, Wick MT % of non-Aladdin sales was down 16%. Pika down 1%. Endgame up 23%.    

 

I don’t really know why that is. I just jot these down for posterity, calculate some related figures that seem moderately interesting, and make a casual observation or two. Depending on how MT counts double features it might partially be that, as @YourMother the Edgelord says.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, Wick MT % of non-Aladdin sales was down 16%. Pika down 1%. Endgame up 23%.    

 

I don’t really know why that is. I just jot these down for posterity, calculate some related figures that seem moderately interesting, and make a casual observation or two. Depending on how MT counts double features it might partially be that, as @YourMother the Edgelord says

Endgame is also having a very strong day on Pulse, I think it could just be that a Disney release isn't going to get hit as hard by another Disney release

[VanillaSkies]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Double features. 

Being from Canada where double features aren't really a thing.... is it widespread in the US outside of just drive ins?
Also, how many drive ins are there still in the US? Anyone have info on that?

EDIT - According to wikipedia "The first drive-in was opened in 1933 in New Jersey.^[1] In 2017 there exist about 330 operating drive-in theaters in the United States, down from a peak of about 4,000 in the late 1950s"

Edited May 24, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	28.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

The best comp I have so far might be Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with Solo (for Memorial Day Weekend like-for-like), JW2 and FB2.  Other last minute comps in Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp have been added.  

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.2597x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of tracking. 

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

NOTE:::  Since I stopped Detective Pikachu tracking 90 minutes earlier due to it having 4pm previews (instead of 6pm), I have a 3:30 - 4:00 comp behind a spoiler box for a pure like-for-like comparison:

 

Spoiler

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (Pikachu Comp) [3:30pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	10307	13853	25.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:         455

 

Pikachu Time-Based Comp

1.1453x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of Pikachu tracking. 

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

 

Adjusted Comps

.5916x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.

.5499x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

.7438x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at stop of tracking.

.7906x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.

.6961x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald at stop of tracking.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

More Detailed Final Comps:

Solo: [4pm - 5pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	143	7732	13521	42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm      :       486

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	6515	11120	41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

Aladdin (JW)*: [5:00pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	8544	11969	28.62%

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom, Solo, and AM&tW

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      654

 

==========

 

Venom: [4:15pm - 4:50pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	8736	13229	33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

FB2: [4:10pm - 4:55pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	10784	15887	32.12%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756

 

Aladdin (FB)*: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9135	12687	28.00%

*Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             706

[filmlover]

Aladdin is selling pretty well for the night shows here. 80 seats in the PLF with 20 minutes to go and 65 for the show exactly one hour after it so far.

[Biggestgeekever]

At the big IMAX in Seattle here, looks like it's going to be about 10% full which is one of the lowest I've seen at a preview here; for comparison, Pirates 5 and Transformers 5 were 25-30%.

 

It really must be a demographic thing because Aladdin is just dying in the Seattle area tonight.