The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Tbf I don't take a ton of stock in Atom reports, since they are growing rapidly (even faster than presales overall are growing), so it's tough to make a 1 to 1 comparison from there.

[TalismanRing]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news is Zilla is ahead of Aladdin on the Pulse Hourlies. it will still take till end of day for it take lead on 24 hour. I think Aladdin may take it back tomorrow again if nor on saturday. But Zilla vs Aladdin should be interesting. I think Zilla will win ( 60 to 45) but its not a done deal.

4pm v 6pm start of shows  is going to skew that as well as the overall Thur previews and lower the preview to o/w ratio

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

On the contrary I don’t see Cruella going higher than Mary Poppins Returns. While Croods 2 may crawl towards $100M DOM, November is stacked with family competition, Lin Manuel Miranda/Sony musical Vivo, Paramount’s Clifford, and Disney’s own animated film not to mention it seems Fox’s Ron Gone Wrong is staying. Besides I don’t think kids care enough about 101 Dalmatians anyways or at least not as much as Dumbo or Christopher Robin.

Is Croods 2 actually still happening (lol Emma Stone vs. Emma Stone if it actually sticks with that date)? I dunno, I think Cruella will be fine, especially since it'll be Stone's first actually commercial vehicle since La La Land (Zombieland 2 is more of an ensemble) and the timing of the holidays, plus I'm sure she'll get some very, very minor awards buzz for it (a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe nomination should be a guarantee with that release date).

Edited May 30, 2019 by filmlover

[Mulder]

Final count for Godzilla: KoTM-

 

4:00 PM IMAX-44/302

4:00 PM 3D-6/117

5:00 PM 2D-31/107

7:00 PM IMAX-115/302

7:15 3D-15/117

8:15 2D-48/107

10:15 IMAX-40/302

10:30 3D-3/117

 

287/1471 aka 19.5%

 

While that number might seem small, the total seat count is a lot higher then anything else I've tracked and a lot of that comes from IMAX.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

4pm v 6pm start of shows  is going to skew that as well as the overall Thur previews and lower the preview to o/w ratio

I agree. I could see 8.5x previews for OW looking at how skewed PS is towards thursday. Let us wait until evening to see where the previews end up. I trust the Musketeer to get it right. 😀

[Menor the Destroyer]

KOTM is getting slower walkups than Aladdin was getting on day-of. It's only gained 2000 since 9am.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

KOTM is getting slower walkups than Aladdin was getting on day-of. It's only gained 2000 since 9am.

Walk-ups...isn't really Fandango.

 

EDIT: Also again not all of Aladdin's pre-sales were going to it's Thursday and that's beyond the obvious fact that KoTM won't open anywhere near as high as Aladdin did.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mulder

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Mulder said:

Walk-ups...isn't really Fandango.

Misworded. But late/day-of sales can be an indicator of walkups

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Is Croods 2 actually still happening (lol Emma Stone vs. Emma Stone if it actually sticks with that date)? I dunno, I think Cruella will be fine, especially since it'll be Stone's first actually commercial vehicle since La La Land (Zombieland 2 is more of an ensemble) and the timing of the holidays, plus I'm sure she'll get some very, very minor awards buzz for it (a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe nomination should be a guarantee with that release date).

Yes it is. It moved to Sing 2’s old spot. I get that but I imagine West Side Story, likely being the biggest in the holidays. will take up the awards buzz, have the musical power and more of the female demographic Cruella is banking on. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Walk-ups...isn't really Fandango.

 

EDIT: Also again not all of Aladdin's pre-sales were going to it's Thursday and that's beyond the obvious fact that KoTM won't open anywhere near as high as Aladdin did.

I meant the sales specifically for today, on the other akvalley link. Still looking good for 6-7 million though, which would be fine.

[chaotic-strike]

So has that Godzilla doing 70 mil Variety article been posted here already?

[Mulder]

Anyways, I'm out for the weekend. I'll see everyone on Monday maybe

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yes it is. It moved to Sing 2’s old spot. I get that but I imagine West Side Story, likely being the biggest in the holidays. will take up the awards buzz, have the musical power and more of the female demographic Cruella is banking on. 

For BOT's sake, I hope that (a movie headlined by Ansolo becoming a major awards contender, even if Spielberg's behind it) doesn't happen. 

[Eric Furiosa]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I could see Cruella landing somewhere in the Mary Poppins Returns to Maleficent area depending on marketing. The hook is the same as the latter (big name Oscar-winning actress as a famous Disney villain).

I still don't see people being excited to watch a movie starring a future puppy killer.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, chaotic-strike said:

So has that Godzilla doing 70 mil Variety article been posted here already?

???

 

Quote

Warner Bros. and Legendary’s “Godzilla: King of the Monsters” should rule box office charts when it debuts in 3,600 North American venues this weekend.

 

The monster movie, a sequel to 2014’s “Godzilla” and the 35th feature about the titular beast, is expected to earn $50 million to $55 million during its first three days in theaters. Should estimates hold, that would be enough to claim victory over fellow newcomers, Paramount’s “Rocketman” and Universal’s “Ma.”

 

Some industry watchers predict “Godzilla: King of the Monsters,” the third installment in Legendary’s MonsterVerse, could reach $70 million in its debut. Even those box office heights would fall significantly short of its predecessor, which launched with $93 million and went on to collect $200 million at the domestic box office and $529 million globally. “King of the Monsters” is eyeing a start closer to “Kong: Skull Island,” the second entry in Legendary’s monster franchise. The King Kong reboot bowed with $61 million, ending its box office run with over $566 million worldwide.

Probably, since it was from yesterday.  But it's not Variety saying KotM is on pace for 70m, just that "some industry watchers predict" it could.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos

[chaotic-strike]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

???

 

Probably, since it was from yesterday.  But it's not Variety saying KotM is on pace for 70m, just that "some industry watchers predict" it.

Darn, good catch though. I just saw this tweet and took it as it was written.

 

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1134067183942868992

Edited May 30, 2019 by chaotic-strike

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I still don't see people being excited to watch a movie starring a future puppy killer.

 

Toy Story 4 is tracking for 200M despite Forky being prominently featured in every piece of marketing

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, chaotic-strike said:

Darn, good catch though. I just saw this tweet and took it as it was written.

 

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1134067183942868992

Damn, that's embarrassing.  Not on your part, but Variety's.  Not even quoting their own tracking for it (as well as leaving out the word 'could').  

 

Thanks for bringing it up, though.

 

 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I still don't see people being excited to watch a movie starring a future puppy killer.

I mean Disney did make a hit out of a movie about a witch who curses an infant to more or less die when she's 16 just a few years ago. Who's to say they can't do the same with a movie about a narcissist who wants (and eventually fails) to make a fur coat out of dogs?  I guess the biggest hurdle here will be if Stone can match up with Glenn Close's version of the character in the 1996 remake.

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree. I could see 8.5x previews for OW looking at how skewed PS is towards thursday. Let us wait until evening to see where the previews end up. I trust the Musketeer to get it right. 😀

Before you inflate my ego too much, I've tracked exactly one 4pm opener so far (Pika Pika) and so that'll complicate my comps as most of the ones I'm using are 6pm openers.  I did purposefully save 4pm data for Aladdin and Wick 3, but it's not really the same.

 

Also kinda looking like Sacramento might be under-performing a tad, which is annoying since one of my most recent comps (Aladdin) I know for a fact over-performed locally.  So a potential for being hit from three different sides here.

 

Still, be interesting to see the range I try to settle on.