The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

TS4 did terrific here again today, pacing almost the exact same amount it did against JW:FK yesterday.  It was fueled a bit by over 50 tickets to the local Toy Story Marathon (which is now just shy of 75% full), but those hard core folks probably would have bought tickets elsewhere, likely the fan events.

 

KotM recovered locally today, but it's still behind my personal target of 50% of JW:FK.  As @keysersoze123 noted, it's well behind Aladdin.  But we know a lot of those sales were going into Friday and the weekend, so not a perfect comparison.  But it is falling behind them locally on Thr which isn't good.

 

The problem for KotM is that it's bombing hard core at one of the A-Tier theaters in town (the local Studio Movie Grill) which usually provides a lot of sales in the region.  That's enough to drag it from the target of 50% down to about 43% on the day to day comparison versus JW:FK.

 

Still it did recover somewhat and that's something.  It could just be that Sacto is underperforming given the national number, which again was right around 48% (KotM today: 11063 |  JW:FK: 23266 | 47.55%).

 

48% of JW:FK would give a preview number of around 7.25m.  My local comp of 43.5% gives 6.66m.  Auspicious number, isn't it?  (it was actually 6.657m )

 

Current range might be 6.5m to 7.25m then.  Might depend on just how much tomorrow is locally.

 

===

 

For what it's worth, the Pika Pika and Aladdin comps give a much less rosy comp of around 5.5m (after adjusting for PLFs in regards to Pika Pika).  Hope for KotM fans sakes that's not the right comp.  

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is still another hour of update left. but Zilla sold less than half what Aladdin did last week. I know the musketeer prefers comparison with Monster movies but movies so close to each other and with similar expectations have to be compared.

A quick reminder.  akvalley's tracker is on Central Time so a day goes from 11pm Eastern Time to 11pm Eastern Time the next day.

[McClintonforThree]

23 hours ago, McClintonforThree said:

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 227 (+30), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 60 (+10), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 4 (+3), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 127 (+8), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Everybody had a pretty good day. Man those Godzilla reviews are killing my vibe man. But it still leads Aladdin by a pretty good amount. It's now behind John Wick though by like 10 tickets. 😕 Rocketman had a solid day, but it ain't coming close to Godzilla. SLOP2 quadrupled its presales today. Lolz. I'm worried about Dark Phoenix. Other than the Dolby and Fan showings it has almost no tickets sold.

 

Regency AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 294 (+24), 14 screenings (+4 Regular) (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 7 Regular)

Rocketman - 54 (+16), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 10 (0), 5 screenings (2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 176 (+5), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

I'm just gonna do the AMCs tonight cause I'm super tired and I'm in a sour mood. Can't see today as anything but a bad sign for Godzilla. Aladdin did 43 tickets last week compared to Godzilla's 24 at Regency. Also, John Wick had 355 tickets presold at this point in time which is 61 more than Godzilla. Damn it all.  

 

Final post until Godzilla comes out. I'm incredibly nervous. Man I hope this beats the projections. At least an opening over Kong Skull Island and I would be happy.

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 276 (+49), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 68 (+18), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 4 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 130 (+3), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Really solid day for Godzilla. Finishes presales above both JW3 and Aladdin at this theater. Happy. Not looking good for SLOP2 or Dark Phoenix. But especially SLOP2. Like, it comes out in a week. Can someone please tell me if presales are supposed to be this bad?

 

Regency AMC

Godzilla KOTM - 356 (+62), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Rocketman - 78 (+24), 3 screenings (1 Dolby, 2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 15 (+5), 5 screenings (2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 184 (+8), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Great day for Godzilla. Still behind John Wick and Aladdin by about 30 tickets but not as bad as it seemed yesterday. Rocketman and SLOP2 had solid days relative to what they've been doing. Dark Phoenix is now behind Godzilla in presales.

 

Epic Theatres at Oakleaf

Godzilla KOTM - 84 (+46), 7 screenings (+2 Regular) (3 Epic XL, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Rocketman - 9 (+9), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 4 (0), 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 0 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

Godzilla grabs some tickets but is still way behind Aladdin at this theater. Hopefully walkups are big.

 

NewVision 12 at Fleming Island

Godzilla KOTM - 23 (+14) , 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Rocketman - 0 (0), 0 screenings

SLOP2 - 0 (0), 0 screenings

Dark Phoenix - 1 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

 

Grabbed a few tickets here but behind Aladdin again.

 

Avenues Regal Cinemas

Godzilla KOTM - 42 (0), 8 screenings (+3 4DX 3D) (3 4DX 3D, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Rocketman - 10 (0), 2 screenings (2 Regular)

SLOP2 - 16 (0), 5 screenings (1 RPX 2D, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 33 (0), 7 screenings (2 4DX 3D, 1 RPX 2D, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

 

Can't seem to get the Regal website to let me in, but Godzilla added some screens which is nice.

 

Cinemark Tinseltown

Godzilla KOTM - 295 (+113), 11 screenings (+1 3D, +4 Regular) (2 3D, 3 XD, 6 Regular)

Rocketman - 45 (+14), 3 screenings (3 Regular)

SLOP2 - 16 (0), 3 screenings (3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 38 (+1), 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

 

WOW. Cinemark went off today. Overall I think Godzilla is in a good place. I just hope walkups are huge and wom is way better than the critics so we can overperform projections domestically since apparently Godzilla is gonna underperform big time in China if the Chinese presales thread here is to be believed. COME ON GODZILLA!

[Eric Loves Rey]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

Mamma Mia 2

4,427

5,099

12,117

17,226

The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737

Predator

1,295

2,476

4,545

13,063

A Star Is Born

9,115

11,383

22,641

21,501

Bohemian Rhapsody

7,255

9,026

12,546

26,476

Overlord

299

604

1,599

4,522

The Mule

791

1,779

3,882

6,235

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

Escape Room

111

368

1,543

7,297

Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

The Curse of La Llorona

896

1,159

2,704

8,279

John Wick 3

7,867

10,932

18,211

31,028

Brightburn

554

858

1,596

3,329

Godzilla King of the Monsters	2,585	5,734	11,157
Rocketman	1,158	3,088	6,634
Ma	336	912	2,244

 

Godzilla

Wednesday

61% of John Wick 3 (34.8M)

245% of The Predator (60.5M)

172% of Glass (69.5M using 3-Day, 80.1M using 4-Day)

48% of Fallen Kingdom (71M)

166% of The Meg (75.3M)

353% of Bumblebee (76.5M)

271% of Rampage (97.1M)

 

Last 7 Days (8-2)

56% of John Wick 3 (31.7M)

143% of Glass (57.6M using 3-Day, 66.4M using 4-Day)

43% of Fallen Kingdom (64.5M)

 

Day 18-2

45% of Fallen Kingdom (66M)

 

I know people here might say "OMG 70M CONFIRMED", but I do think we need to step back a bit. Not only do the L7D and 18-2 comps point to the mid 60s, audience reception is still very much up in the air. But I do think crossing the 60M mark is very likely, and would of course be quite solid for this movie.

 

Rocketman

Wednesday

29% of A Star is Born (12.6M)

55% of Mamma Mia (19.1M)

60% of Ocean's 8 (24.8M)

53% of Bohemian Rhapsody (27M)

171% of The Mule (29.9M)

181% of The Upside (36.8M)

 

I'd love for this to hit 30M+, but I don't think that's gonna be the case just yet. Maybe if walkups really pull through. The BR comp seems like the best one to use at the moment.

 

Ma

Wednesday

70% of Hereditary (9.6M)

141% of Brightburn (11M using 3-Day, 13.5M using 4-Day)

77% of Breaking In (13.6M)

140% of Overlord (14.3M)

265% of The Prodigy (15.5M)

105% of Truth or Dare (19.6M)

83% of La Llorona (21.9M)

206% of Slender Man (23.4M)

145% of Escape Room (26.5M)

 

Pretty much all of the comps decreased from yesterday. That's not the worst thing, but 20M might be more of a challenge. Of course, this costs only $5M, so I don't think Jason Blum will be crying no matter what this makes.

[Eric Loves Rey]

And like before, I'm only gonna look at the movie that started its first day of presales (technically) and maybe do the other upcoming  releases in the morning.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Men in Black		13	479
		17 days	16 days

 

 

First day of presales (I'm ignoring the 13 tickets sold on Tuesday)

36% of Detective Pikachu (19.6M)

41% of Aquaman (27.9M)

52% of Shazam (27.9M)

 

Day 16

16% of Fallen Kingdom (23.5M)

41% of Aquaman (27.9M)

108% of Dumbo (49.8M)

99% of Dragon 3 (54.8M)

165% of Shazam (88.4M)

 

So admittedly, I don't really think I have any good comp for MIB at the moment, but might as well take what I can get. Either way, this seems like a pretty mediocre start for the film, but anything can happen in the next two weeks

[Cap]

Godzilla - Rocketman - Dark Phoenix - Pets 2 - Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.2	5.22	5.24	5.27	5.28	5.29	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	150	160	182	197	205	230	284	323	364	1276	28.53%	41
Godzilla	567	618	646	695	710	790	857	924	981	2124	46.19%	57
Dark Phoenix	479	612	694	741	790	826	885	--	915	2034	45.00%	30
Pets 2	--	--	9	9	9	9	11	--	11	297	3.70%	0
Toy Story 4	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	287	340	2034	16.72%	53

 

• Godzilla's already over Aladdin's last tracked ticket amount (836), and Rocketman's about half of John Wick (675) and Pika Pika (617).  So I'd say the 60M+ Million for Godzilla / 25M+ Rocketman are comping out on the money.  I will do run some final comps tomorrow with that report.

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.2	5.22	5.24	5.27	5.28	5.29	Total	%	+ Sold
Rocketman	4	4	4	4	4	4	6	7	14	1160	1.21%	7
Godzilla	15	22	26	34	40	47	73	91	107	1316	8.13%	16
Dark Phoenix	0	2	2	3	3	3	3	--	4	962	0.42%	1
Toy Story 4	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	18	3	2434	0.12%	-15

 

• Glitches, glitches everywhere at the IMAX theater.  Godzilla lost six standard tickets, but gained seven IMAX tickets, for a net for +1 sold.
• The IMAX is now saying it's sold zero tickets for Toy Story 4.  It's late, and it's early in pre-sales, so I'm reporting it but not thinking twice about it.

Should have final reports up for Rocketman, Godzilla, and Ma tomorrow.

[john2000]

i want to ask, do you have any news/info about far from home ?

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 5/23/2019 at 8:28 AM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Cineplex - Scotiabank Montreal

 

GODZILLA - THURSDAY MAY 30 (IMAX)

 

4:00pm - 13/343

7:00pm - 107/343

10:00pm - 20/343

 

DARK PHOENIX - THURSDAY JUNE 6 (IMAX - Fan Event)

 

6:00pm - 48/343

9:00pm - 37/343

 

WEEKLY UPDATE - Godzilla Imax doing well, added showtimes for Dark Phoenix and Toy Story tickets went up for sale

 

GODZILLA - THURSDAY MAY 30

 

IMAX

4:00pm - 66/343

7:00pm - 197/343

10:00pm - 76/343

 

DARK PHOENIX - THURSDAY JUNE 6 

 

IMAX -FAN EVENT

6:00pm - 83/343

IMAX

9:00pm - 52/343

REGULAR 3D

7:00pm - 1/390

10:00pm - 2/390

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 17/343

9:45pm - 2/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 3/390

9:15pm - 0/390

[cdsacken]

Rocketman is going to take away walk-ups from Godzilla.

 

Sticking with 55-60.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Godzilla is almost exactly on pace with Aladdin for Thursday previews only on Fandango. Both were in the 15k range at 8 am Central.

[filmlover]

Rocketman's doing great tonight around here. I can see the previews being $3M+.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Rocketman's doing great tonight around here. I can see the previews being $3M+.

Hard to say. Should do good but I'm shocked at the UK performance. Seems like a very big walk up movie.

Edited May 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[Krissykins]

Would be happy with $25m+ for Rocketman and $15m+ for Ma. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Hard to say. Should do good but I'm shocked at the UK performance. Seems like a very big walk up movie.

The UK performance has been great, it opened on Wednesday and the Sunday was actually its biggest day. WOM is excellent. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Hard to say. Should do good but I'm shocked at the UK performance. Seems like a very big walk up movie.

I imagine most business is gonna come over the actual weekend so $3M+ would bode really well (especially with how old it's gonna skew for the most part). Shows are filling up throughout the weekend at my theater.

[FlashMaster659]

 

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

 

If this becomes another Incredibles 2-sized monster than we are truly living in Disney World.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Don't think it will quite reach I2, but I think $150m OW/500m total is certainly possible. A lot more hype for it than I think most expected, considering the eye rolls it generated among many when it was announced (obviously it seems like it will live up to the first 3 quality-wise as well).

Edited May 30, 2019 by Jayhawk

[keysersoze123]

Update over past 24 hours

 

12	02.300%	1495	Toy Story 4
32	00.082%	53	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event

 

I think that is terrific for day 2 and all the press release around beating I2 PS at fandango should help today as well. We need another week of data but if it continues solid show then we can eliminate under performance for sure.

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london thurs may 30 1030am

 

Godzilla King of monsters 

 

IMAX

4pm 37/323 (+13)
7pm 59/ 323 (+11)
10pm 28/ 323(+12)

 

Westmount 
Godzilla     Thurs may 30
VIP
615 18/59 (+2)  930 9/59(+0)