The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21.

 

Fandango and Atom Tickets are already reporting that the first day (Tuesday) of movie ticket presales for Toy Story 4 has already set a record for an animated movie and outsold Incredibles 2.

 

On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

 

On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london.   Thursday may 30 1030am

 

Rocketman

Silvercity london
Recliner
7pm 77/111
10pm 6/111

 

Westmount  Thurs may 30 1030am
Recliner
710 42/63   
1010 0/63

Edited May 30, 2019 by Tinalera

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21.

 

Fandango and Atom Tickets are already reporting that the first day (Tuesday) of movie ticket presales for Toy Story 4 has already set a record for an animated movie and outsold Incredibles 2.

 

On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

 

On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of  Beauty and the Beast.

 

In my opinion this line is very important. 

 

BATB was notorious for being PS heavy, then TS4 comes along and beats it. Not only is animation usually way way below live action for presales, but TS4 is gender neutral (perhaps even a little more male heavy being Pixar?), whereas BATB had the female-skew which made PS even heavier.

 

I know that BATB was 2.5 years prior, but still... 

 

@Deep Wang I need you

[Taruseth]

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21.

 

Fandango and Atom Tickets are already reporting that the first day (Tuesday) of movie ticket presales for Toy Story 4 has already set a record for an animated movie and outsold Incredibles 2.

 

On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

 

On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.

What???

 

That appears a little optimistic, so I would absolutely love for it to open to $200m (but I'd say $150m would be great, cause that would be a pretty impressive opening) And if I look back to what I wrote in the "Every Disney movie until TLK under 250m" I expected it to open below 100m and end below 300m... So from my point of view, any opening above TS3 (non-adj.) would be great.

 

To be honest if this, as lunatic as that would be, actually manages to open to 200m, that could give this year the small chance at 4 openers above 200m with TLK and TROS being the other two (and then in the end probably only Endgame will have done that, lol, but I really hope for the best)

 

 

And they really shouldn't get my hopes up...

 

 

If this would happen, this year would be even more utter Disney domination...

 

On the other hand, Pets 2 looks dead, so maybe that'll help TS4.

 

Spoiler

And if I am being honest I have no intention of seeing Pets 2 (opens end of June) in theatre and want to see TS4 (and I watched Pets in theatre, but not TS3 (ups)) but that movie opens on like 21st August here, why???

And as I know Germany and how they aren't fans of Toy Story, in Germany at least Pets 2 will probably win against TS4.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Taruseth

[Cap]

5 hours ago, john2000 said:

i want to ask, do you have any news/info about far from home ?

I am not tracking that film due to its Tuesday release. I plan to just do a final seat count on the holiday weekend. On a cursory glance, at the SMCM IMAX screen: 7PM is about 60% full. Rest of Tuesday is Light. 

 

At LS13’s the IMAX screen is 45% full for 12:01am, and front two row only for 6:30 and 9:45pm

 

Hmm. Damn. 

 

 Now you have me curious. I might do an actual seat count this weekend.  We’ll see. 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

If this becomes another Incredibles 2-sized monster than we are truly living in Disney World.

 

True, but we all know whose gonna be the true monster:

 

 

 

ETA, after reading deadlines new article:

 

if Toy Story 4 makes over 200M OW, so excited for Frozen II to take TFA’s second place OW crown. Cause, what? Whaaaa?

Edited May 30, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Menor the Destroyer]

The presales so far do indeed suggest 200 million is possible...I just don't really get where the extra hype came from the 3rd one, which only opened to 110 million.

[Eric Loves Rey]

9 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21.

 

Fandango and Atom Tickets are already reporting that the first day (Tuesday) of movie ticket presales for Toy Story 4 has already set a record for an animated movie and outsold Incredibles 2.

 

On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

 

On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.

 

I've been optimistic on this movie's chances, but I didn't think that was even remotely possible. This is going to be a fun movie to track

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Goddamn ok I've never been on the Toy Story 4 under $400M train but didn't expect this. Just shows how ingrained Toy Story is for an entire generation of people.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

To be honest if this, as lunatic as that would be, actually manages to open to 200m, that could give this year the small chance at 4 openers above 200m with TLK and TROS being the other two (and then in the end probably only Endgame will have done that, lol, but I really hope for the best)

Movies to go above 200M by end of first Sunday:  

Endgame (almost twice, wtf)  

TS4

FFH

TLK

F2

TROS  

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/29/2019 at 2:30 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yayy. Outselling I2 in first day pre-sales. Great. 

 

So $150mn 

 

That said, I obviously want something like $192mn but I will be content with $158mn and $547mn full run.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I'm still not sold on this beating I2's opening. That movie really caught fire on release week, it remains to be seen if TS4 will do the same. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Alright, let's get back to the swing of things here...

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Secret Life of Pets 2	200	386	505
	11 days	10 days	9 days
Dark Phoenix	427	553	684
	11 days	10 days	9 days

Toy Story 4		2,996	1,744
		24 days	23 days
Spider-Man FFH	249	331	417
	36 days	35 days	34 days

 

Pets 2

Last 7 Days (15-9)

75% of Grinch (50.5M)

220% of Hotel 3 (97.2M)

 

Day 25-9

74% of Grinch (50M)

233% of Hotel 3 (102.6M)

 

So blah blah blah, two different comps giving two different results, don't know which one to believe. Kind of a broken record at this point.

 

Dark Phoenix

Last 7 Days (15-9)

29% of Venom (23.5M)

68% of Glass (27.4M using 3-Day, 31.7M using 4-Day)

68% of Shazam! (36.6M)

 

Day 23-9

78% of Shazam! (41.5M)

 

@DAJK Well, you might be right about SLOP2 underperforming, but as for your DP Over SLOP club...well....

 

Toy Story 4

First two days of presales

226% of Detective Pikachu (123M)

324% of Dumbo (149.1M)

311% of Shazam (166.7M)

308% of Aladdin (281.6M using 3-Day, 359.5M 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

162% of Incredibles 2 (296.9M)

 

Day 24-23

153% of Captain Marvel (235M)

387% of Aladdin (353.8M 3-Day, 451.6M 4-Day)

426% of Incredibles 2 (778.7M)

 

 

So yeah, this is still going strong. I would say it's a bit too high, but with Deadline saying it's tracking to beat Incredibles 2, I guess anything is possible at this point.  Either way, this is shaping up to be a fun movie to track, especially if this actually does break 200M.

 

Far From Home

Last 7 Days (40-34)

40% of Captain Marvel (60.8M)

 

Day 50-34

61% of Captain Marvel (94M)

 

It's a very tricky movie to comp for, with so few Tuesday movies out there. But I guess this is doing good?

[Eric Loves Rey]

10 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

To be honest if this, as lunatic as that would be, actually manages to open to 200m, that could give this year the small chance at 4 openers above 200m with TLK and TROS being the other two (and then in the end probably only Endgame will have done that, lol, but I really hope for the best)

Frozen 2 reaching 200M wouldn't surprise me by the by  @captainwondyful 

 

But admittedly, I would get a good-sized laugh if Toy Story, of all movies, was the one to get the 2nd biggest OW this year, beating out all the other Disneys with way more hype.

 

 

This is the face of a BO Legend.

[Stewart]

@Shawn gonna be real interesting seeing the update to TS4 now the non-Pro tracking is out. At this rate your LRT is looking very small  

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-lion-king/

 

6/21/2019

Toy Story 4

$117,000,000

$390,000,000

Disney / Pixar

 

That 390 could be done by 2nd weekend at this point

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Movies to go above 200M by end of first Sunday:  

Endgame (almost twice, wtf)  

TS4

FFH

TLK

F2

TROS  

 

 

If this could happen, that would be amazing, but F2 opens on a Friday during the weekend before Thanksgiving, so that is the unlikeliest out of those.

 

The 5 Disney releases this year (CM, Dumbo, Penguins, Endgame, Aladdin) opened to 650m (with one of those open to 2m) if TS4, TLK, F2 and TROS all would open with 200m that would be an additional 800m and then with Maleficent (maybe 75m?) that would be a combined 1.525B.

Disney came really close last year with ~960m for all Openings.

Just imagine this happens and then next year, combined gross of all movies below the OWend of their movies this year, okay for that this year movies they all four would need to open significantly above 200.

Because I think despite everything the movies should get close to 2B next year too.

 

 

Okay, now back to reality, all movies could just as likely open below 200m too and I honestly don't know if I see any of them that high, though I really would love to see that happen.

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

TBH, at starting of year, before being too active here, I was convinced with TS4 doing i2 numbers, in my Disney 4B club, I said so.

 

You guys convinced me otherwise, in that club majorly, so I was also down to 400-500mn, but back on 600 is such good feeling.

 

That said, now 200mn OW will actually be a surprise, and I myslef was convinced with that 145-165mn range.

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Frozen 2 reaching 200M wouldn't surprise me by the by  @captainwondyful 

Let’s start over-predicting right now. #WhatSheDeserves

 

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

But admittedly, I would get a good-sized laugh if Toy Story, of all movies, was the one to get the 2nd biggest OW this year, beating out all the other Disneys

Same. my Inner messy gay bitch would crackle. 

 

[filmlover]

We all knew 2019 was gonna be the year of Disney domination but we might've underestimated just how high they would go. And looking at their slate for next year it appears there's no way it'll keep up since they're bringing out all the big guns this year.

[Eric Loves Rey]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

We all knew 2019 was gonna be the year of Disney domination but we might've underestimated just how high they would go. And looking at their slate for next year it appears there's no way it'll keep up since they're bringing out all the big guns this year.

You say that, but just wait until Jungle Cruise makes $1B DOM