The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

RIP my club?

 

Aladdin should handle that but if not, TS4 is going to obliterate it.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

RIP my club?

What happens when you bet against The Mouse.

[MovieMan89]

28 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Maybe the highest grossing of they movies next year would be like #6 this year, behind Endgame, TROS, TLK, F2 and TS4, lol...

Sorry, but that is basically to crazy to happen.

 

 

Also a year ago I said TS4 would open with 90m and end with 270m...

Lol, at least that was as long as a year ago. There's been people here peddling sub 300 for it as recently as last week. 

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Aladdin should handle that but if not, TS4 is going to obliterate it.

 

Aladdin isn't a done deal, at least not until we see how it drops this weekend.  TS4 needs to open to about 88M at the maximum for my club to succeed, so unless it goes significantly under tracking (not impossible, *cough* Mary Poppins Returns, but probably not happening) then it's over

[A Marvel Fanboy]

For real?

 

Disney is just way way too strong. Are they going to dominate this year's top 10...

[MovieMan89]

Posted this in the TS4 thread a few months back

On 2/22/2019 at 5:22 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Interestingly enough, this got the most "want to see's" of any of the 2019 movies they showed them (however, TLK and Endgame weren't included). 

 

Obviously a super small sample size, but this franchise seemed to have the most multi-generational appeal. Even more interesting is that nearly all of them had a lukewarm to negative reaction to the trailer, yet nearly all still said they want to see it. Still sticking by my guns that it's foolish to count this out as being massive until we have some idea of whether or not Pixar has managed to deliver on the TS legacy with this. 

Seems like indeed TS4 is having huge multi-gen appeal based on these pre-sales. If this opens to 200+ it will be the ultimate example of internet hype not necessarily meaning anything for real world hype, since TS4 has been trashed online since day 1. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

Just now, firedeep said:

For real?

 

Disney is just way way too strong. Are they going to dominate this year's top 10...

At the very least they have 7 of the top 10 locked up (Captain Marvel, Endgame, Aladdin, Toy Story, Lion King, Frozen, Star Wars) locked up. And if you want to include Spider-Man considering Marvel co-produced it, 8. But it was always a given this was gonna be the year in which they would take over once that schedule was revealed. Next year (which is so far made up of Onward, Mulan, Black Widow, Artemis Fowl, Jungle Cruise, The One & Only Ivan, The Eternals, and Cruella) won't be anywhere nearly as strong even if they announce a new Disney Animation film for next year at D23 in August.

[titanic2187]

Looks like now it is wise for Universal to release SLOP 2 this early.....No way they can survive under such intense storm. 

 

SLOP2 could turn into another Alice in the wonderland 2 disaster

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

At the very least they have 7 of the top 10 locked up (Captain Marvel, Endgame, Aladdin, Toy Story, Lion King, Frozen, Star Wars) locked up. And if you want to include Spider-Man considering Marvel co-produced it, 8. But it was always a given this was gonna be the year in which they would take over once that schedule was revealed. Next year (which is so far made up of Onward, Mulan, Black Widow, Artemis Fowl, Jungle Cruise, The One & Only Ivan, The Eternals, and Cruella) won't be anywhere nearly as strong even if they announce a new Disney Animation film for next year at D23 in August.

Honestly, I'd expect the domination to continue just as much next year, the only difference is the movies won't be pulling these insane numbers. But nothing really will, schedule is bleak for juggernaut hits. Onward, Mulan, Black Widow, Jungle Cruise, Eternals, and maybe Dragon Empire(?) all have just as much box office potential as anything on the schedule next year. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

Looks like now it is wise for Universal to release SLOP 2 this early.....No way they can survive under such intense storm. 

 

SLOP2 could turn into another Alice in the wonderland 2 disaster

I highly doubt it's going anywhere near that big of a fall but won't be surprised if it ends up bleeding half the audience or more on account of how much of a nonentity it feels like.

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Aladdin isn't a done deal, at least not until we see how it drops this weekend.  TS4 needs to open to about 88M at the maximum for my club to succeed, so unless it goes significantly under tracking (not impossible, *cough* Mary Poppins Returns, but probably not happening) then it's over

MPR was tracking at $ 40M 3-Day, it opens with $ 24M.

 

Even if TS4 have the same situation, it will debut with $ 120M. But everybody knows this isn’t happening, 5-day debut plus holidays messed up with MPR presales and tracking and everything seems bigger than it really is.

[ThomasNicole]

Also anyone still thinks Aladdin will not make $ 250M? It’ll be close to $ 190M this weekend

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I highly doubt it's going anywhere near that big of a fall but won't be surprised if it ends up bleeding half the audience or more on account of how much of a nonentity it feels like.

The SLOP2 does possess some advantage here by being the 1st major animation since How to train your dragon in late-Feb, excluding those family-friendly film like pikachu, dumbo and aladdin.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The SLOP2 does possess some advantage here by being the 1st major animation since How to train your dragon in late-Feb, excluding those family-friendly film like pikachu, dumbo and aladdin.

 

 

 

Honestly feels like it's getting completely dwarfed in buzz by Toy Story which opens just two weeks later (and has much broader appeal). Unlucky timing on Universal's part.

Edited May 30, 2019 by filmlover

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Disney gonna drop 50% in 2020 and Box office domestically will take hit of $2.25 Billion 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

Ah, so it can open anywhere from 100M-200M on opening weekend.  Thanks, Variety and Deadline.

Edited May 30, 2019 by That One Guy

[Eric Loves Rey]

1 hour ago, Stewart said:

In my opinion this line is very important. 

 

BATB was notorious for being PS heavy, then TS4 comes along and beats it. Not only is animation usually way way below live action for presales, but TS4 is gender neutral (perhaps even a little more male heavy being Pixar?), whereas BATB had the female-skew which made PS even heavier.

 

I know that BATB was 2.5 years prior, but still... 

 

@Deep Wang I need you

Forgot to post this before, but it's not very wise to compare movies that are two years apart. Online ticket sales have been growing year after year, so outside of maybe last year, it's usually unwise to look at 2017 data and say, "oh yeah, this 2019 movie's gonna be big". Of course doing better than Incredibles 2 is very very good

[cdsacken]

That club is definitely dead. Murdered at the end but it was a bold fantastic one. I loved it

[keysersoze123]

Its day 3 of PS for TS4 and its still ahead of I2 by some margin. I think press release and early tracking should help. At this point I dont see it open below Dory.