The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

I’m curious how long do you think that run rate will last? Or at least how long do you think the escalation will go

Not too long I think.  TLK had its premiere and review drop earlie...

 

...

 

*checks RT*

 

Let me get back to you on that, chief.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not sure after seeing the reviews. I could see this be quite front loaded.

 

Let’s wait until we get actual audience reaction before the doom and gloom. Aladdin was in the same spot with the critic ratings and it will go over 3.8x OW domestic and 4.5x worldwide.

[Porthos]

Seriouisly, I was going to type that EXACT phrase word for word.  I was going to point out how the ramp up started earlier and thus other films would catch up a bit when they started THEIR rampups.

 

Gonna make a nice pretty post with logic and everything.

 

Then I decided to check out the RT score.

 

...

 

The TLK thread is... Not worth visiting right now, is it?  

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 Not sure after seeing the reviews. I could see this be quite front loaded.

like aladdin ? oh wait ..................... you do realise that the reviews wont affect shit right ? 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Seriouisly, I was going to type that EXACT phrase word for word.  I was going to point out how the ramp up started earlier and thus other films would catch up a bit when they started THEIR rampups.

 

Gonna make a nice pretty post with logic and everything.

 

Then I decided to check out the RT score.

 

...

 

The TLK thread is... Not worth visiting right now, is it?  

no the lion king thread is a shithole with doom and gloom, dont go there, the idiocy  is strong

[75Live]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Seriouisly, I was going to type that EXACT phrase word for word.  I was going to point out how the ramp up started earlier and thus other films would catch up a bit when they started THEIR rampups.

 

Gonna make a nice pretty post with logic and everything.

 

Then I decided to check out the RT score.

 

...

 

The TLK thread is... Not worth visiting right now, is it?  

 

it's actually fine and pretty tame considering how threads usually go with RT score reveals.  

[XXR & Friends]

Let’s not turn this thread into that thread. If you want to discuss the rating and what you think of the clips and songs, go over there.

 

This thread is for numbers and analysis.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

like aladdin ? oh wait ..................... you do realise that the reviews wont affect shit right ? 

Of course reviews matter.  The opening night of Aladdin was only 7m, remember?

 

No one is saying that TLK is gonna crash and burn on opening night.  At least they shouldn't.  What I personally am saying is that reviews might stop TLK from reaching peak potential on opening night.

 

It might, and I do mean might, blunt the acceleration that TLK had seen the last couple of days.

 

Of course when I say 'blunt' I mean settle in at 20 to 22 million instead of soaring to 25 to 28 million.

 

So, yes, reviews absolutely "do affect shit". 

 

Will it in this case?  Just have to see how it goes.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Of course reviews matter.  The opening night of Aladdin was only 7m, remember?

 

No one is saying that TLK is gonna crash and burn on opening night.  At least they shouldn't.  What I personally am saying is that reviews might stop TLK from reaching peak potential on opening night.

 

It might, and I do mean might, blunt the acceleration that TLK had seen the last couple of days.

 

Of course when I say 'blunt' I mean settle in at 20 to 22 million instead of soaring to 25 to 28 million.

 

So, yes, reviews absolutely "do affect shit". 

 

Will it in this case?  Just have to see how it goes.

no no no , my point was that if the audience like who cares ? the total ww will not change at all, these reviews will have a negative effect ? for sure , if the audience like it however, it wont have an affect

 

 

ps my point also was to the people who thought that this movie would make 1,6 billion, and they are now like, oh this is not good 1,2 billion max ..............

Edited July 11, 2019 by john2000

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Let’s not turn this thread into that thread. If you want to discuss the rating and what you think of the clips and songs, go over there.

 

This thread is for numbers and analysis.

I agree we shouldn't be discussing the rating here.  I do think speculating the effect the reviews might have on pre-sales is fair game though and pretty on point for this thread.  

 

Of course, I do realize that we are still talking about a heavily anticipated flick so we're still talking about the edges here.  But looking out for a warning signs in our individual tracks while remembering that one market is still one market is something that not only will happen, but should happen.

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

no no no , my point was that if the audience like who cares ? the total ww will not change at all, these reviews will have a negative effect ? for sure , if the audience like it however, it wont have an affect

 

 

ps my point also was to the people who thought that this movie would make 1,6 billion, and they are now like, oh this is not good 1,2 billion max ..............

This is the tracking thread though.  We're not really concerned overmuch with that discussion here.  At most we might factor it in for OW internal multis and whatnot.

 

To put it another way, if there is any thread that is going to factor in the potential impact of reviews it's this one (with certain exceptions made for more so-called 'critic proof' genres)

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is the tracking thread though.  We're not really concerned overmuch with that discussion here.  At most we might factor it in for OW internal multis and whatnot.

 

To put it another way, if there is any thread that is going to factor in the potential impact of reviews it's this one (with certain exceptions made for more so-called 'critic proof' genres)

dont be angry with me, but i did not understand what you said exactly  

 

ps my point is that it will have an impact , but if the reception is great ,it wont affect in the long run

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Let’s wait until we get actual audience reaction before the doom and gloom. Aladdin was in the same spot with the critic ratings and it will go over 3.8x OW domestic and 4.5x worldwide.

Everything is possible.This is a non human live action movie with meh reviews. I definitely think its peak potential won’t be achieved with this level of reviews. But it has done very well in PS. Not at SH level but quite strong compared to Toy Story in theaters I tracked. I wish we had Pulse to show how things have moved.

 

Let us hope we get an update from @Deep Wang before the movie opens next week.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

dont be angry with me, but i did not understand what you said exactly  

 

ps my point is that it will have an impact , but if the reception is great ,it wont affect in the long run

You were commenting that "reviews don't mean shit".  You meant it in the long run which is a fair enough point.

 

I was simply pointing out that in this thread we mostly care about opening night and opening weekend coz that's usually what we're tracking. And there I was pointing out reviews can, but not always, have an impact before WOM kicks in.

 

No more, no less.

 

 

[Cap]

This is not (1) a new movie or (2) a continuation of a franchise with a stellar record.  This is the remake of arguably THE Disney Movie.  A Bad Remake might be the only movie worthy of that garbage "ruined my childhood" argument.  We might be looking at an Aladdin 2.0 where it opens to 175M and legs it way to like 525M. (Yes, I STILL don't think it's going lower than 150M based on Tracking Thread's Data.)

 

In terms of tracking, we normally see boosts in sales after the Embargo Lifts/Reviews Drop.

 

Reviews for The Lion King will and do absolutely matter. 

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

This is not (1) a new movie or (2) a continuation of a franchise with a stellar record.  This is the remake of arguably THE Disney Movie.  A Bad Remake might be the only movie worthy of that garbage "ruined my childhood" argument.  We might be looking at an Aladdin 2.0 where it opens to 175M and legs it way to like 525M. (Yes, I STILL don't think it's going lower than 150M based on Tracking Thread's Data.)

 

In terms of tracking, we normally see boosts in sales after the Embargo Lifts/Reviews Drop.

 

Reviews for The Lion King will and do absolutely matter. 

of course but its idiotic to say that you believed that the movie would make 1,6 billion and now will make 1,1 billion bc of the critic reviews

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

of course but its idiotic to say that you believed that the movie would make 1,6 billion and now will make 1,1 billion bc of the critic reviews

she...didn't say that?

[Tinalera]

Apologies for not posting recently. Real life got busy this week. I barely get a chance to visit site. I miss the site hope i can get back to reg posting again soon 😊

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 A Bad Remake might be the only movie worthy of that garbage "ruined my childhood" argument. 

I wouldn't put it quite that way (for perhaps obvious reasons ) but I do agree that when you have a highly nostalgic property it's a potential minefield where any one misstep could be really bad.

 

And I've been saying this as a potential downside for TLK for a long time (don't make me dredge up the posts, BTW).

10 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

  We might be looking at an Aladdin 2.0 where it opens to 175M and legs it way to like 525M.

This I absolutely agree with, FWIW.  Not sure about the OW but this is still summer, and it's still a family film.  Could easily have great legs with little competition in its demo.

 

I do have more analysis on a potential downside for TLK, but that's more a Main Thread argument so I'll leave it to the side for now.

 

===

 

As an aside, Pulse would be really helpful right now in seeing the real time effect, if any.  Thanks for nothing, Fandango. 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

she...didn't say that?

um i am not talking about him you know ?