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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Not sure that ATP will drop that much to get it as low as 9.5. JC had much worse Saturday PS relative to FRI and still had a 15% bump.

MTC 2 ratio increase on SAT. A 24% increase in admits will probably be 20% growth in gross & 18-19% overall.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Menor said:

There was a post in r/boxoffice of someone's theater showing that tickets went on sale on Sunday night, I had thought it was a US theater but maybe not (or maybe it was fake and/or a mistake).

 

30a.jpeg 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/13/2021 at 3:19 PM, Menor said:

Early afternoon update, Free Guy is at 49292 tickets sold. No JC comp but it has overtaken TSS Friday at the same point (after being more than 4k tickets behind in the morning). If it stretches the lead over TSS by the time I take my evening run then I would be inclined to say 8 million Friday, though TSS did have a fairly good walkup pace so I won't predict that just yet. 

At the same point as this update yesterday FG is at 71,330 tickets sold. 45% ahead in admits at the same point. Probably that will normalize a bit by night. If it doesn't...this could be looking at a very high Sat bump. It does seem a little extreme though so I will hold off on predicting anything for now. Over 10m looks good, but beyond that not sure. 

Edited by Menor
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ok. Now that's interesting. Usually from 14:00 onward, the ratio on SAT & FRI is even but unlike data point I had, these numbers include 17:00 from East Coast.

 

I am thinking 140K at this point, depending on drop in ATP & how MTC 1 did, $10.25M.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Not according to my electric bill

 

 

Ways to determine the seasons —

Tired: temperature, daylight, flora, things of that nature

Wired: schoolchild day-of-week moviegoing habits

Edited by Lokis Legion
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok. Now that's interesting. Usually from 14:00 onward, the ratio on SAT & FRI is even but unlike data point I had, these numbers include 17:00 from East Coast.

 

I am thinking 140K at this point, depending on drop in ATP & how MTC 1 did, $10.25M.

Agreed. Last run was 119.5k, Friday at the same point was around 86.5k, so ~140k seems about right. 10.25-10.5 million. 

 

Hmm. But ATP drop in MTC2 is not that big (with numbers now this high the DBOX effect should be negligible). It is currently 10.67 for Sat, will probably drop a bit for the rest of the night but with most tickets sold at this point it won't drop that much. Yesterday was around 10.91. 

Edited by Menor
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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted

Hoping for 10.5M, great bump.

 

JC sunday was -25% but i think FG can make closer to -20% considering how the weekend is turning, so +29M OW.

 

My prediction for this comes from 20M to 30M after JC, then back to around 25M when presales slowed bad and i was even thinking maybe sub-20M is happening before the previews. Then it did fine, i was back to expect 25M and now will probably be closer to the 30M i was predicting 2 weeks ago, what a rollercoaster.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

JC sunday was -25% but i think FG can make closer to -20% considering how the weekend is turning, so +29M OW.

Nah. JC was back during proper summer. Same partial return to school dynamics that help Sat relative to Fri also hurt Sun night. I would be happy with -30%

 

Edit: actually I’m expecting -30 and would be fine with it, but would be happy with WOM driving to more like -25

Edited by Lokis Legion
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Nah. JC was back during proper summer. Same partial return to school dynamics that help Sat relative to Fri also hurt Sun night. I would be happy with -30%

 

Edit: actually I’m expecting -30 and would be fine with it, but would be happy with WOM driving to more like -25

So I was checking, The Meg had only 23% drop but yeah 25-30% will make more sense.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You mean at same time yesterday or up 20% from Yesterday final because Menor numbers are suggesting +34% MTC 2 in admits.

I am not seeing that high. Sales don't move that much after 7pm PST. I am comparing to final which was an hour later.

 

FYI I compared in $ terms.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So I was checking, The Meg had only 23% drop but yeah 25-30% will make more sense.

I think this weekend lines up more with the Meg -29% weekend in terms of calendar -- but ow sun is often a little stronger than normal sun, so yeah, 25 can be hoped.  

 

Re mtc2, hour diff and admits vs gross explain most of it.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You mean at same time yesterday or up 20% from Yesterday final because Menor numbers are suggesting +34% MTC 2 in admits.

Anyway my trip out moved out and so here are the numbers(like for like)

 

Free Guy Saturday

MTC1 - 158897/681381 2033421.24 3843 shows

MTC2(Dbox adjusted) - 133.65K ~1.5 million 3571 shows 

 

So about low 20's increase today. Very good numbers at both MTC.

Edited by keysersoze123
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