The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

come on guys lets see some positivity for shang chi .....nice

[Menor the Destroyer]

It's hard to read the PS right now, well behind BW but far ahead of most other recent comps. F9 may be the most natural comp, though have to factor in the Fast franchise walkup advantage vs MCU. Going from the MTC2 pace it seems like its heading for 8-9k 24 hours so around half of what BW got after DBOX adjustment, but MTC1 seems like it will have a higher ratio. Still, it has completely outstripped TSS so I think we can rule out the disaster under 30 million predictions for now. 

Edited August 16, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's hard to read the PS right now, well behind BW but far ahead of most other recent comps. F9 may be the most natural comp, though have to factor in the Fast franchise walkup advantage vs MCU. Going from the MTC2 pace it seems like its heading for 8-9k 24 hours so around half of what BW got after DBOX adjustment, but MTC1 seems like it will have a higher ratio. Still, it has completely outstripped TSS so I think we can rule out the disaster under 30 million predictions for now. 

@charlie Jatinder if i remember correctly said that he expected around 10-11 for mtc 2 and 18 or so for mtc 1 , it seems like it will do a bit better in mtc 1 and a bit lower in mtc 2

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The under 30 made little sense to me. I always had it at 35-40m. That seemed to align with Sept history and trends. Beginning to believe 45-50 if PS hold up

[keysersoze123]

Has Shang Chi brought down BOT :-) That is positive for the movie for sure. 

 

Anyway I dont know why anyone will take Shang Chi PS as negative !!! it has started very well showing the MCU fanbase strength. continued strength will require it to widen its audience base. Let us see how things go. For now things look good.  

[john2000]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Has Shang Chi brought down BOT 🙂 That is positive for the movie for sure. 

 

Anyway I dont know why anyone will take Shang Chi PS as negative !!! it has started very well showing the MCU fanbase strength. continued strength will require it to widen its audience base. Let us see how things go. For now things look good.  

any update ? hope you dont mind 

[Legion Again]

Having this below JC when it’s PAless was pure nonsense.    
 

Anyway, since we’re going to have some very rough Th numbers soon, let’s talk IM. The Th:TFri ratio should be (much) better than BW as it’s: nonPA, new character, and less summery. I think we can see Th/OD around 30-33% (personally thinking lower end). Sat bump will be better because of same two factors. Ragnarok was +42%, DS1 +35%, perhaps let us say +30% conservatively. Then Sunday is holiday, should go basically -10ish.   
 

That would give an IM of 8.1-9.1 for the 3-day. Mon would then be ballpark 33% drop from Sun -> 20% of 3-day, so 9.7-11x for 4-day.    
 

For now I’ll try 8*8.6 for a nice 3-day.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Having this below JC when it’s PAless was pure nonsense.    
 

Anyway, since we’re going to have some very rough Th numbers soon, let’s talk IM. The Th:TFri ratio should be (much) better than BW as it’s: nonPA, new character, and less summery. I think we can see Th/OD around 30-33% (personally thinking lower end). Sat bump will be better because of same two factors. Ragnarok was +42%, DS1 +35%, perhaps let us say +30% conservatively. Then Sunday is holiday, should go basically -10ish.   
 

That would give an IM of 8.1-9.1 for the 3-day. Mon would then be ballpark 33% drop from Sun -> 20% of 3-day, so 9.7-11x for 4-day.    
 

For now I’ll try 8*8.6 for a nice 3-day.

8,75  multi with 8 previews and we have 70 hm 👀

Edited August 16, 2021 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Having this below JC when it’s PAless was pure nonsense.    
 

Anyway, since we’re going to have some very rough Th numbers soon, let’s talk IM. The Th:TFri ratio should be (much) better than BW as it’s: nonPA, new character, and less summery. I think we can see Th/OD around 30-33% (personally thinking lower end). Sat bump will be better because of same two factors. Ragnarok was +42%, DS1 +35%, perhaps let us say +30% conservatively. Then Sunday is holiday, should go basically -10ish.   
 

That would give an IM of 8.1-9.1 for the 3-day. Mon would then be ballpark 33% drop from Sun -> 20% of 3-day, so 9.7-11x for 4-day.    
 

For now I’ll try 8*8.6 for a nice 3-day.

I think more like 6-7 for previews but your reasoning on the IM seems right (I would go a bit lower on the Sat bump as Labor Day weekend is still sort of summerish). Being a bit conservative as you would expect Day 1 to be fairly large given an only 17-day PS run. 

Edited August 16, 2021 by Menor

[Chicago]

43 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

yes, and? people still get excited about it, especially because overreacted or not everyone know that MCU reactions translate into good reviews and, usually, good movies.

Utter madness how we are 24 movies in and there hasn't been a poorly reviewed marvel movie 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I think more like 6-7 for previews but your reasoning on the IM seems right (I would go a bit lower on the Sat bump as Labor Day weekend is still sort of summerish). Being a bit conservative as you would expect Day 1 to be fairly large given an only 17-day PS run. 

even black widow had a multi of 6,2 so i would expect shang chi to be in the range of 7-8

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Utter madness how we are 24 movies in and there hasn't been a poorly reviewed marvel movie 

They’re too well-oiled a machine to have a poorly reviewed movie. Of course, that means they’ll rarely have a raved film (once per every year or 2 years?) but they know how to provide for the typical Rotten Tomatoes critic and average moviegoer

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think more like 6-7 for previews but your reasoning on the IM seems right (I would go a bit lower on the Sat bump as Labor Day weekend is still sort of summerish). Being a bit conservative as you would expect Day 1 to be fairly large given an only 17-day PS run. 

Perhaps. Gotg went +62% on Lanor Day Sat vs +38% on its 2nd weekend but +80ish in deeper fall. Still my going with 30% was already accounting for that a little.    
 

Iirc Jat has used +25% in some rough scenarios. Previews as 31% of OD, +25% Sat, -15% Sun would get you 8.4x still.   
 

I will be bummed and surprised if previews go below F9, but for a conservative forecast could try 6.6*8.3 for 55.

[Tinalera]

Okay so Shang Chi doesn't open till Sept 3rd in US/North America? Ill keep an eye out this week to see if we start to get presales this early in Toronto. Will try to fit in whatever info I can. This week another crazy real life week, though FINALLY get some rest next week onward so hopefully tracking on my end is easier

 

[ThomasNicole]

What a relief finally seeing people stop talking about 30M-ish for Shang Chi.

 

Unless the theaters crash completely in the next 2 weeks and half, SC will open in likely similar environment than FG. If that one can open with 28M i think this is obviously doing at least +45M.

 

Personally i think this only need like 40M 3-day and the entire industry will be more confident about the next months, considering Delta and that this is still a chinese oriented characted in a new IP, even if it have Marvel brand behind it.

 

But from now, i think 7-8M previews are pretty reasonable based on the first numbers, and internal multi will be much better than BW for sure so i think this actually have a better shot in doing 60M than 45M. I´m really rooting for it, it´s this type of number that industry needs right now to be sure the business is safe and alive, even if still in recovery.

Edited August 16, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[ThomasNicole]

35 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Utter madness how we are 24 movies in and there hasn't been a poorly reviewed marvel movie 

Agreed, actually if you look only the average ratings themselves MCU have plenty of just ok received movies, but they´re capable of please most people who watch it even if not by much, so we have those really high scores which is what matters for most people.

 

I´m sure they will eventually fail to deliver this ´´perfect designed to please´´ movies, but i think this is not happening anytime soon.

 

 

[Fox20]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

They’re too well-oiled a machine to have a poorly reviewed movie. Of course, that means they’ll rarely have a raved film (once per every year or 2 years?) but they know how to provide for the typical Rotten Tomatoes critic and average moviegoer

 

2016 : Civil War 91%, Dr Strange 90%

2017: Homecoming 92%, Ragnarok 92%

2018: Black Panther 96%

2019 : Endgame 94%, AMATW 88%

2019: Far from home 90%

 

How is this rarely?

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Iirc Jat has used +25% in some rough scenarios. Previews as 31% of OD, +25% Sat, -15% Sun would get you 8.4x still.

I am thinking 7.75-8x internal multi.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

 

2016 : Civil War 91%, Dr Strange 90%

2017: Homecoming 92%, Ragnarok 92%

2018: Black Panther 96%

2019 : Endgame 94%, AMATW 88%

2019: Far from home 90%

 

How is this rarely?

So about once per year like I said

 

And look at metacritic or at least RT average

Far From Home: 69 (7.4)

Endgame: 78 (8.2)

Antman and Wasp: 70 (7.0)

Black Panther: 88 (8.30)

Ragnarok: 74 (7.6)

Homecoming: 73 (7.7)

Doctor Strange: 72 (7.3)

Civil War: 75  (7.7)

 

Black Panther is highest by far. Rest are in same range which is solid. Metacritic classifies this as "generally favorable reviews"

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking 7.75-8x internal multi.

 

Yeah you are a little pessimistic on TFri growth compared to me. Pretty close though.