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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 12/3/2021 at 12:47 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-14 Days

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 352 90,411 27,573 30.50% $296,306 $10.75
Cine 1 24 7,227 5,495 76.03% $79,027 $14.38
Cine Capri 6 2,673 895 33.48% $11,739 $13.12
IMAX 3 1,335 1,066 79.85% $15,990 $15.00
3D 18 2,712 574 21.17% $7,962 $13.87
             
Total 403 104,358 35,603 34.12% $411,024 $11.54

 

Well I lied. No shows added today as well, but surprisingly good day of 1318 new sales vs 1539 yesterday. The best theaters are all adding almost nothing now, its the average one which have spare capacity. When the best locs start adding shows, we should see another surge.

 

PLFs and IMAX added just 34 seats, from 7422 to 7456, so you get the idea. California locs are 26% of overall sales but only 14% of the new sales.

 

Some locs % sales.

Cerritos 16 - 2870/3603 - 79.7%

Mountain Grove - 2425/3241 - 74.8%

Arizona Mills - 2197/3543 - 62%

Estrella Falls - 1948/2513 - 77.5%

 

The actual % for tickets sold for online sales will be 5% higher, as cinema block around that many seats for offline sales. 

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-10 Days

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 378 94,765 31,793 33.55% $340,684 $10.72
Cine 1 24 7,227 5,645 78.11% $81,069 $14.36
Cine Capri 6 2,673 959 35.88% $12,381 $12.91
IMAX 3 1,335 1,106 82.85% $16,590 $15.00
3D 18 2,712 676 24.93% $9,371 $13.86
             
Total 429 108,712 40,179 36.96% $460,095 $11.45

 

Seats sold in last 4 days - 4,576

Shows added in last 4 days - 26

 

Comps

Black Widow Final - $25.9M (adjusted for ON)

Eternals Final - $23.2M

 

Avengers: Endgame Final - $24.2M

 

Solid pace. What else I can say? I guess it can do $50M. Let's see how it goes.

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The Sacto comp against EG went up 1.6% (81.8% to 83.4%). If that increase can average about 1.5% a day for the final 10 days (perfectly feasible) then Sacto will be just behind EG when Porthos does his final track. 
 

I’ll assume a 5% ATP increase, so Sacto presales (dollar wise) would actually be about 3.5% higher than EG. Factor in a 10-15% increase in presales vs April 2019 and we’d be looking at 88-93% of EG.

 

So $60M previews should be safe but TFA true previews ($53M-ish) has a chance of falling. 

Edited by Multiverse of XXR
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On 12/5/2021 at 5:47 PM, Multiverse of XXR said:

Not sure, but I'll go with....


Previews = $44-50m
Friday = Previews + 45%
Saturday = Friday + 10%

Sunday = Saturday - 20% 

 

So, whatever that equals from here. 


Updating…

 

Previews = $47-53M

Friday = Previews + 35%
Saturday = Friday + 8%
Sunday = Saturday - 18%
 

Total:  $235-265M OW

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So, this is unexpected...

 

Separate from whatever Amazon Pay/Atom is doing next week, Slickdeals (and the T-Mo App) is reporting that TMobile will be offering its subscribers $4 all-in Spidey tickets next Tuesday.  This is completely unexpected to me b/c I'd have waited to buy if I knew I had 3 of 6 tickets for $4 waiting...oh well, maybe I'll let my boys watch it twice...

 

TL/DR - Look for a sky high, unbelievable presale day next Tuesday for Spidey at MTC 1/2 - and maybe disappointing Sun/Mon/Wed if word of this gets around about this deal b/c there are a ton of TMobile subs...

 

PS - This is separate from the Amazon Pay Atom deal also coming next week, so MTC 1/2 could REALLY overindex for this if they are combinable

Edited by TwoMisfits
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6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Separate from whatever Amazon Pay/Atom is doing next week, Slickdeals (and the T-Mo App) is reporting that TMobile will be offering its subscribers $4 all-in Spidey tickets next Tuesday.  This is completely unexpected to me b/c I'd have waited to buy if I knew I had 3 of 6 tickets for $4 waiting...oh well, maybe I'll let my boys watch it twice...

Couldn’t you get your already purchased tickets refunded at full price, and then quickly grab the exact same seats at the discount?

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1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Couldn’t you get your already purchased tickets refunded at full price, and then quickly grab the exact same seats at the discount?

 

I COULD, but I bought all of them together, so refunding 3 and then trying to get them back in the exact seats (which seem to have to wait 15 minutes to become available for me in the past) would be annoying...and I went with 1st showing (which I wouldn't have done if I had 3 uber-cheap tickets), so it's not so much money that gets me to do annoying refunds (it's like my store shopping rule - if the error is under $5 either way, I just leave b/c it's not worth my time to fight at CS for under $5 - I figure this way the +s and -s even out)...

 

I'm thinking, if they are usable in PF, I may gift the 3 to my 2 boys and dad for Xmas to see Spidey again in PLF so I can take my girls elsewhere...I need to buy 4 more Cinemark tickets before 1/1/21 to be platinum next year anyway (and get 6 discounted tickets/month vs 1/month on the membership) - of course, then I'd still need to buy 1 more...

 

This surprising deal coming out has taught me that I'm waiting to see what Xmas movie might get a TMobile Atom discount before I buy anymore tickets - I told my son he might get a 2nd movie, and now if Atom is gonna have Spidey on 12/14, I gotta think one of the movies on 12/22 or 12/25 will bring a deal on 12/21...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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After EONS MTC1 run for Spidey is OVAH. I aint doing this again unless I can optimize it. Not sure if I can do that for this movie. Anyway we have data and analyzing output I can guess where it can end up. As I said there is little potential for growth for prime time shows. Based on how many  more prime time shows are added, we can guess where it will end up. I might just look at delta shows that could make the difference overall. 

 

Anyway

NWH MTC1 previews - 551549/1128780 8155916.05 6738 shows

 

Edit: I am thinking 45m previews at this point. 

 

Edit: updated with new shows as well. 

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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1 minute ago, Menor said:

Why tf would they do an Atom deal for this movie...sigh. Will deflate the gross probably as many people would go for the discount. Though luckily a lot of demand for Thu is already burned. 

Who is doing atom deal? Gross will be deflated only if theater is reducing ticket price. What Atom do or T Mobile do doesn't matter.

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

Why tf would they do an Atom deal for this movie...sigh. Will deflate the gross probably as many people would go for the discount. Though luckily a lot of demand for Thu is already burned. 

Why on earth will it deflate the gross. Does the studio pay for the discount. I thought these deals are sponsored. 

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9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Why tf would they do an Atom deal for this movie...sigh. Will deflate the gross probably as many people would go for the discount. Though luckily a lot of demand for Thu is already burned. 

 

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Who is doing atom deal? Gross will be deflated only if theater is reducing ticket price. What Atom do or T Mobile do doesn't matter.

 

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why on earth will it deflate the gross. Does the studio pay for the discount. I thought these deals are sponsored. 


A story in 3 parts!

 

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18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Not really the thread to dive too deep into this (either the dedicated WB thread or the Matrix 4 thread would probably be better for long term discussion IMO), but when they decided this strat last year (and didn't budge from it), they were probably expecting NWH to be in the 150-210 OW range, instead of whatever the hell it's actually gonna land at.

 

They also probably expected that even if NWH blew up, they could have this as a secondary movie ala other XMas openers.  

 

But what I don't think they expected NWH to so throughly dominate discussion/buzz that it made most other things an afterthought in the overall cultural mindshare.  That's the real "problem" here.  Just hard for other things to butt into the conversation.

 

Should they have?  Meh.  Not my paygrade to suss out.

 

The one thing I do know is that people who are excited for this film are very much paying attention. Can see this in various Twitter feeds of Matrix-stans, for instance.

 

But it's getting the attention of the rest of the GA which might prove... challenging.  Just have to see how it all plays out, including WOM/legs.

Yea when I wrote it I was "ehhhh this really isn't the place for it", but I guess I had to get it out. Yea Im not going into anymore woulda shoulda coulda in this thread, that is for the Matrix thread itself. I consider myself lightly chastened lol :shy:

 

Any more Matrix stuff will be just be the numbers and related discussion :)

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Matrix decision is stupid from AT&T but its what it is. That said PS is really strong. What I could see with MTC1 is release is small so far(just 1 screen or shared screen with Spidey plus another 2d screen) but PS looks stronger than Dune !!! Definitely thinking double digits OD is possible. 

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From last night:

 

Spidey NWH MTC2

 

Thu:

Seats Sold: 349323/733281  (+7222)

$ Sales: 4493162  (+87045)

Showtimes: 5386  (+18)

 

Fri:

Seats Sold: 270555/903014 (+8542)

$ Sales: 3228786 (+92185)

Theaters: 6042 (+16)

 

The pace did drop from yesterday, I did take these numbers about an hour earlier, so I think in reality the pace was close to the same. 

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And speaking of Matrix numbers....

 

Matrix Resurrection

Greater Toronto Area

Dec 22 taken Dec 7

 

15 theatres

67 shows

 

Total sold 553

Total Available17920

Total Seats 18473

Percentage 2.99

 

Only 15 of what would normally be 25 theatres I cover having presales at moment. Numbers no doubt will pick up as screens become available.

 

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