The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Just saw that there are currently no IMAX releases between Spider-Man/The Matrix until Morbius at the end of January. Wonder if Scream will get a last minute announcement or not.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Spidey NWH MTC2

 

Thu:

Seats Sold: 342101/731827 (+8420)   

$ Sales: 4406117 (+102370)

Showtimes: 5368  (+3) 

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 262013/901529    (+9874)

$ Sales: 3136601  (+110623)

Showtimes: 6027 

 

Another very strong day. Seems like Fri has started to accelerate. 

[Porthos]

On 12/4/2021 at 11:30 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	308	21020	37552	16532	44.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

347

 

As of T-12, No Way Home has sold...

1.7977x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [24.85m]*

2.8274x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [24.88m]

2.1437x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [24.87m]

2.5795x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [24.51m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	79.98		128	18492		11/243	6084/24576	75.24%		47.99m
TROS	109.83		157	14310		3/210	10194/24504	58.40%		43.93m
NWH (EG adj)	---		295	14789		0/308	17789/32587	45.41%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		311	15717		0/308	18626/34343	45.76%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       4413/12528 [35.23% sold] [+129 tickets]

Matinee:    1543/5023  [30.72% | 9.33% of all tickets sold]

 

 

===

 

Keeping the EG/TROS comps.... FOR NOW.  Strengthened my warnings on them as well as bumping up the error possibility.  We'll see how long I decide to keep them.  Might eventually decide to put the the whole comp block back under a spoiler box.  Play it by ear as usual.

 

Pace is absolutely slowing down, but still seeing spurts here and there as folks discover, hey, there's some damn good seats available.  Aside from that, we're in what passes for the lull for this type of movie.  Curious to see just how far it dips before ramping back up again.

 

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	308	20553	37552	16999	45.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

467

 

As of T-11, No Way Home has sold...

1.8485x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [25.55m]*

2.9073x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [25.58m]

2.2042x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [25.60m]

2.6524x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [25.20m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	81.80		109	18601		11/243	5975/24576	75.69%		49.08m
TROS	111.40		198	14508		4/210	9996/24504	59.21%		44.56m
NWH (EG adj)	---		426	15215		0/308	17372/32587	46.69%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		445	16162		0/308	18181/34343	47.06%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       4564/12528 [36.43% sold] [+151 tickets]

Matinee:    1624/5023  [33.22% sold | 9.55% of all tickets sold]

 

[Legion Again]

Good news: I have set up most of what I wanted to set up. 
Bad news: the unique circumstances of the run are making the output even goofier than expected. Mostly 100+ previews sort of stuff that I am not going to bother posting. I am hopeful that when comps begin to go up the 2nd half of the U, I will be getting more reasonable results.   
 

On a very high level I would say the NWH pace is great for t-11ish, but it won’t ramp up to a degree of almost any comps we have because its U bottom isn’t very bottomy.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

On a very high level I would say the NWH pace is great for t-11ish,

At this juncture I’m more curious about Friday than previews. It feels like we have a pretty good handle on that (45-50 and maybe +/- 5% after reviews). But I feel like Friday can be anywhere from +20% of previews to +60% and we don’t really have a feel yet.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-11	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	154	22,299	5,630	181	25.25%
		Phoenix	6	128	18,728	7,680	176	41.01%
		Raleigh	8	76	8,925	5,151	120	57.71%
	Spider-Man Total		21	358	49,952	18,461	477	36.96%

 

Sales were steady at +1 to previous day.  One new show added, and a few switched from 3D to standard.

 

T-11 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.65%

BW - 4.65%

SC - 6.19%

Venom 2 - 7.78%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $247,782 (13.42 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	16,158	87.53%	$222,562.85	13.77
	Y	2,303	12.47%	$25,220.02	10.95
Grand Total		18,461	100.00%	$247,782.87	13.42

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	6,991	37.87%	$113,157.50	16.19
	Standard	11,470	62.13%	$134,625.37	11.74
Grand Total		18,461	100.00%	$247,782.87	13.42

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-10	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	154	22,299	5,799	169	26.01%
		Phoenix	6	128	18,728	7,881	201	42.08%
		Raleigh	8	76	8,925	5,270	119	59.05%
	Spider-Man Total		21	358	49,952	18,950	489	37.94%

 

I guess I was looking at the number of shows instead of new sales yesterday because sales dropped a good bit.  Slight recovery today though, but same growth rate. 

 

T-10 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.65%

BW - 4.62%

SC - 6.58%

Venom 2 - 5.65%

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $253,876 (13.40 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	16,574	87.46%	$227,948.44	13.75
	Y	2,376	12.54%	$25,927.72	10.91
Grand Total		18,950	100.00%	$253,876.16	13.40

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	7,116	37.55%	$115,197.59	16.19
	Standard	11,834	62.45%	$138,678.57	11.72
Grand Total		18,950	100.00%	$253,876.16	13.40

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	11,472	60.54%	$148,897.44	12.98
	Cinemark	4,956	26.15%	$71,389.07	14.40
	CMX	24	0.13%	$359.76	14.99
	Regal	2,329	12.29%	$31,413.14	13.49
	Sun-Ray	169	0.89%	$1,816.75	10.75
Grand Total		18,950	100.00%	$253,876.16	13.40

 

60% of sales in my regions are from AMCs, which have a lower ATP than the other big chains.  I also noticed that AMC is offering $.99 first month of A-List right now, which could be boosting sales in those theaters.

[Cmasterclay]

So uh, I know everyone is working diligently on Spider Man and that is what matters most, but any word on West Side Story? 15m OW possible?

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So uh, I know everyone is working diligently on Spider Man and that is what matters most, but any word on West Side Story? 15m OW possible?

There’s a few posts about it in here if you look back a few pages. In short, yes it’s possible. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-3	West Side Story	Jacksonville	6	16	2,396	31	31	1.29%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,159	49	49	2.27%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,760	29	29	1.65%
	West Side Story Total		19	42	6,315	109	109	1.73%

 

T-3 comps

 

Dear Evan Hansen - 1.3x (1.038m)

Respect - 1.7x (1.107m)

House of Gucci (Tues) - .495x (644k)

 

Don't really love any of these comps, as they all had early access shows and I'm not aware of any for WSS.  Sales look alright, but based on these I'd have to go around $1m

[Eric the Ape]

Matrix tickets are now up! And you know, since I'm tracking four movies starting today, I feel some "Timothee being cute" content would really raise up my spirits 👀 

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Matrix tickets are now up! And you know, since I'm tracking four movies starting today, I feel some "Timothee being cute" content would really raise up my spirits 👀 

 

 

Spoiler

I hate to think what this is doing to my YT search algo....

 

[filmlover]

49 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Matrix tickets are now up! And you know, since I'm tracking four movies starting today, I feel some "Timothee being cute" content would really raise up my spirits 👀 

[Tinalera]

Ill probably start Matrix on Wed for GTA. Give a couple of days for sales to build up.

[filmlover]

Wonder why Matrix is forgoing early previews when they gave them to the other movies they heavily pushed to see on the big screen (Godzilla vs. Kong, In the Heights, The Suicide Squad, Dune), especially when (one assumes) it's going to be live on HBO Max by the time everybody wakes up that morning before theaters open for their first showtimes of the day.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wonder why Matrix is forgoing early previews when they gave them to the other movies they heavily pushed to see on the big screen (Godzilla vs. Kong, In the Heights, The Suicide Squad, Dune), especially when (one assumes) it's going to be live on HBO Max by the time everybody wakes up that morning before theaters open for their first showtimes of the day.

 

Spidey absolutely overpowering everything else, presumably.  Originally Dune wasn't gonna get any previews before WB reversed course.  Don't know if it was due to pressure or not for that one.

 

Also, they might be treating Wed as a glorified all-day preview anyway, with Thr and Fri being a wasteland.  Stands to reason they might see Xmas Day as it's "true" opening day and see Wed+Thr+Fri as extras.

 

Or WB just is throwing their hands up in the air thanks to NWH beasting out everywhere.  Who knows.

 

FWIW, Sing 2 isn't getting Tue Previews, either, though that did have extremely limited (and very successful) EA shows.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Porthos
Forgot XMas Eve was Fri, not Thr

[lorddemaxus]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wonder why Matrix is forgoing early previews when they gave them to the other movies they heavily pushed to see on the big screen (Godzilla vs. Kong, In the Heights, The Suicide Squad, Dune), especially when (one assumes) it's going to be live on HBO Max by the time everybody wakes up that morning before theaters open for their first showtimes of the day.

I don't remember GvK getting Tuesday previews.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Spidey absolutely overpowering everything else, presumably.  Originally Dune wasn't gonna get any previews before WB reversed course.  Don't know if it was due to pressure or not for that one.

 

Also, they might be treating Wed as a glorified all-day preview anyway, with Thr being a wasteland.  Stands to reason they might see Xmas Day as it's "true" opening day and see Wed+Thr as extras.

 

Or WB just is throwing their hands up in the air thanks to NWH beasting out everywhere.  Who knows.

 

FWIW, Sing 2 isn't getting Tue Previews, either, though that did have extremely limited (and very successful) EA shows.

The King's Man is having previews that Tuesday (starting at 4) at a lot of theaters. Sing 2 not getting them makes sense since it already had a successful batch of early screenings a few weeks ago.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't remember GvK getting Tuesday previews.

 

It did not.  All day Wed as an opener.  But that was when many theaters were still closed due to COVID, so, perhaps understandable that they were still in the experiment phase.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't remember GvK getting Tuesday previews.

Ah true. I had forgotten that was a middle-of-the-week Wednesday release.

[el sid]

WSS, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, Dezember 10:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): still no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 27 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 127 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 130 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 316.

Comps (all counted for Friday): In the Heights (11.5M OW) had on Monday of its release week 498 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters. So as expected WSS gained ground: On Friday it had only 187 to 400 tickets for In the Heights. Could be ca. on par on Wednesday I guess.
Cats (6.6M OW) had also on Monday of its release week 150 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters
and Respect (8.8M OW) had on Wednesday of its release week (I didn't count on Monday) 97 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.
I agree that a 15M+ OW is possible (especially because @Menor already reported quite good presales a few hours ago).

National Champions had today only 4 sold tickets for Friday in 4 theaters but this doesn't have to mean much because probably the shows were very recently added.

A Journal for Jordan had on Saturday 66 sold tickets for its Sneaks on the same day (with 1 show in 3 of my theaters so in sum 3 shows).
I have no experience with previews especially on a Saturday so I can't say if this is good or not. At least I saw that it jumped quite well from 16 tickets on Thursday to 66 on Saturday.

Good start for Matrix 4 in the AMC Fresh Meadows (NY): It already sold 111 tickets for December 22.

Edited December 6, 2021 by el sid