The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Just now, filmlover said:

The King's Man is having previews that Tuesday (starting at 4) at a lot of theaters. Sing 2 not getting them makes sense since it already had a successful batch of early screenings a few weeks ago.

 

But the fact that The King's Man is having previews is something of a supporting point.

 

NWH is already taking the best screens.  Or at least most of them.  TKM is gonna take more, even if it's only one screen per theater (which is what it currently is locally). Is there really room for something like TMR on Tue night?  It wouldn't sniff any PLF screens, unless it was in the post 10pm area.  Hell, even on Wed it's only on a handful of PLF screens locally (11am showings and 10:30pm showings and even then only a couple of theaters).

 

Just rotten luck (and poor planning on WB's part) for TMR here.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

But the fact that The King's Man is having previews is something of a supporting point.

 

NWH is already taking the best screens.  Or at least most of them.  TKM is gonna take more, even if it's only one screen per theater (which is what it currently is locally). Is there really room for something like TMR on Tue night?  It wouldn't sniff any PLF screens, unless it was in the post 10pm area.  Hell, even on Wed it's only on a handful of PLF screens locally (11am showings and 10:30pm showings and even then only a couple of theaters).

 

Just rotten luck (and poor planning on WB's part) for TMR here.

tbh I've been getting a feeling that they've been planning for this to be a nonevent in theaters for a while, or at least once it became obvious that Spider-Man was gonna be taking whatever nostalgia factor it would've enjoyed (being a PG-13 superhero movie vs. an R-rated sci-fi one probably makes a big difference too). Wonder Woman 1984 clearly generated a ton of views for them on HBO Max last Christmas (albeit when a large portion of theaters were still closed) and they had already written this off as one of the movies that would be day-and-date exclusives even before that movie opened.

[Porthos]

I was a little curious and decided to check NWH's third weekend when it comes to PLF screens locally (NYE/NYD).

 

...

 

Anyone hoping that The Matrix Resurrections might be given some love by then, should probably adjust expectations.  Cinemark has already set aside all of the XD screens for NWH for that weekend.  Regal doesn't have anything up, but if they follow to previous form, IMAX will still be split with those that have it while RPX/4DX/ScreenX is still being sent Spidey's way.

 

There are a couple of places with multiple "Giant Screens" (though they don't always charge PLF prices), and I expect them to split NWH/TMR when they finally get around to scheduling (Cinema West is usually something of a late arrival).

 

*checks local independent TrueIMAX theater*

 

Oh, man, that's crushing. They're keeping NWH all the way through XMas at 7pm but having The Polar Express at the 4pm slot.  No sign of Matrix 4 anywhere there.

 

Can't speak to AMC and what they're gonna do with all of their myriad PLF formats as there isn't one within 60 miles of me.  But I don't imagine it'll be much different with them, either.  Might throw them a Dolby Cinema bone, I suppose.

[filmlover]

There's a legit possibility that Matrix 4 will make less in its entire run than Spider-Man will in its first day given the HBO Max release. Can't say I'm surprised the former is unfortunately getting squeezed out of giant screen space (a 6-story-high IMAX located in a museum that also shows nature documentaries early in the day had Matrix on their website for the longest time in upcoming releases and removed it within the past week, while adding West Side Story for the week before Spider-Madness).

[Tinalera]

Spiderman No Way Home

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario

Thurs Dec 16 taken Dec 6

 

25 theatres

197 shows

 

Total Sold 27378

Total Remaining 24538

Total seats 51961

percentage 52.6

 

Combination of more shows being added and a bit of a fallback on sales brings a bit smaller percentage. Seems like those who bought early want to be day one-ers, while more people, maybe because of Holiday season shopping ect, maybe backing off a bit. Almost has a feeling of "wait the movie will be there after Dec 16 why rush" type of thing. 

 

Did note more than usual instances of counts in some shows actually falling back a bit as some people either cancelled or maybe bought another show. 

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 Can't say I'm surprised the former is unfortunately getting squeezed out of giant screen space (a 6-story-high IMAX located in a museum that also shows nature documentaries early in the day had Matrix on their website for the longest time in upcoming releases and removed it within the past week, while adding West Side Story for the week before Spider-Madness).

 

I mean, I'm not surprised at all.  But I am sad that it looks like a film which deserves to be seen on the biggest, baddest screen possible is gonna get shafted.

 

---

 

I will say I do have something of a slight eyebrow raise that Cinemark locally isn't even giving Resurrections even one pity XD screen at either 11am or 11pm at night.  It is getting some very minor DBOX love, but that's really about it.  But aside from that, the vaaaaaaaaast majority of PLF screens locally are being given to Your Friendly Neighborhood Spiderman for at least three weeks.

[Tinalera]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

tbh I've been getting a feeling that they've been planning for this to be a nonevent in theaters for a while, or at least once it became obvious that Spider-Man was gonna be taking whatever nostalgia factor it would've enjoyed (being a PG-13 superhero movie vs. an R-rated sci-fi one probably makes a big difference too). Wonder Woman 1984 clearly generated a ton of views for them on HBO Max last Christmas (albeit when a large portion of theaters were still closed) and they had already written this off as one of the movies that would be day-and-date exclusives even before that movie opened.

I know my feeling is TMR movie certainly doesn't seem to be getting a huge buzz about it like Spidey, or even close. If indeed they are planning for it to be a "non event", wonder what made that decision for them. Do you think they might be feeling the "seemed like a good idea at the time" type thing?

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, I'm not surprised at all.  But I am sad that it looks like a film which deserves to be seen on the biggest, baddest screen possible is gonna get shafted.

 

---

 

I will say I do have something of a slight eyebrow raise that Cinemark locally isn't even giving Resurrections even one pity XD screen at either 11am or 11pm at night.  It is getting some very minor DBOX love, but that's really about it.  But aside from that, the vaaaaaaaaast majority of PLF screens locally are being given to Your Friendly Neighborhood Spiderman for at least three weeks.

Spider-Man being a long movie itself (150 minutes plus another 20-25 of previews) means there's a limit to the number of times it can be shown per day on any screen. Imagine Sony was able to convince a number of theaters to sign contracts that only it would play on their IMAX/PLF screens throughout the holidays once it became obvious it would be a mega-event similar to the Christmas-released Star Wars movies from the past couple of years. Maybe they'll throw it bone once the holidays are over, especially when there's no major releases set for the IMAX format until Morbius, but by that point it'll be old news.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

I know my feeling is TMR movie certainly doesn't seem to be getting a huge buzz about it like Spidey, or even close. If indeed they are planning for it to be a "non event", wonder what made that decision for them. Do you think they might be feeling the "seemed like a good idea at the time" type thing?

 

 

Not really the thread to dive too deep into this (either the dedicated WB thread or the Matrix 4 thread would probably be better for long term discussion IMO), but when they decided this strat last year (and didn't budge from it), they were probably expecting NWH to be in the 150-210 OW range, instead of whatever the hell it's actually gonna land at.

 

They also probably expected that even if NWH blew up, they could have this as a secondary movie ala other XMas openers.  

 

But what I don't think they expected NWH to so throughly dominate discussion/buzz that it made most other things an afterthought in the overall cultural mindshare.  That's the real "problem" here.  Just hard for other things to butt into the conversation.

 

Should they have?  Meh.  Not my paygrade to suss out.

 

The one thing I do know is that people who are excited for this film are very much paying attention. Can see this in various Twitter feeds of Matrix-stans, for instance.

 

But it's getting the attention of the rest of the GA which might prove... challenging.  Just have to see how it all plays out, including WOM/legs.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Matrix provides some counterprogramming though, I honestly didn't expect it to get eaten up in showtimes like this. First trailer did fairly well but it feels like the buzz has kinda evaporated since then. Hopefully it can surprise positively, December is the time when films can coexist. 

[keysersoze123]

Should have moved this to Feb or beyond. Now its too late. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Should have moved this to Feb or beyond. Now its too late. 

 

Once they locked in the renegotiated contracts for HBO Max, they were very probably stuck.

 

Really, the big mistake here was locking in ALL of 2021 as HBO Max fodder instead of just locking in half of 2021 and then moving to a month by month/case by case basis as that didn't give them calendar flexibility when unforeseen events occurred. 

 

They lucked out with Dune to a degree.  But their luck ran out with Matrix 4.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

I am not sure if @Cap is tracking empire/lincoln. But data I see so far is

 

Empire 25 - 5392/7428 109210.28 31 shows

Lincoln Sq - 4474/5396 98250.86 17 shows

 

Crazy strong but limited potential for growth as all prime time shows are almost sold out. 

[filmlover]

Sing 2 is gonna be the backup movie to Spider-Man for most people, especially families, over the holidays tbh. Universal is promoting the heck out of it (stuff for it is literally everywhere at their theme parks and the surrounding areas) and family movies are usually the ones that flourish the most over the extended time off anyway. The King's Man was always gonna be lucky to make half of the second movie even before the multiple delays and American Underdog/A Journal for Jordan will be the winners of the Left With Scraps sweepstakes.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not sure if @Cap is tracking empire/lincoln. But data I see so far is

 

Empire 25 - 5392/7428 109210.28 31 shows

Lincoln Sq - 4474/5396 98250.86 17 shows

 

Crazy strong but limited potential for growth as all prime time shows are almost sold out. 

They should be able to expand both if necessary/the want to. No reason E25 can’t hit add 10-15 more shows and LS13 can’t add 6-9 more (I’m basing this off the fact that the AMC I track is already at 42 show times with 24 screens.)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-17	Matrix 4	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	110	110	1.85%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,878	155	155	5.39%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,544	153	153	4.32%
	Matrix 4 Total		19	79	12,353	418	418	3.38%

 

As far as I can tell, tickets just went up 3-4 hours ago.  I was just going to add the shows to my sheet but ended up doing a count since there were so many sales already.   Saw some discussion about PLF vs Spiderman on opening day.  Here's the breakdown for what's showing up in my sample so far:

 

Wed 12/22

 

Spider-Man (2,217 TC)

IMAX - 577

3D - 1,319

Dolby - 540

D-Box - 299

XD - 570

RPX - 325

 

Total - 11,150

 

Matrix (1,472 TC)

IMAX - 556

3D - 0

Dolby - 11

D-Box - 254

XD - 17

RPX - 26

 

Total - 5,892

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yeah the MTC2 start seems really strong as well. Maybe all these posts above are just gonna look silly. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Yeah the MTC2 start seems really strong as well. Maybe all these posts above are just gonna look silly. 

 

Well, maybe.  Most of my focus is still on lack of PLF and we know how MTC2 is handling that...

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

They should be able to expand both if necessary/the want to. No reason E25 can’t hit add 10-15 more shows and LS13 can’t add 6-9 more (I’m basing this off the fact that the AMC I track is already at 42 show times with 24 screens.)

They will add shows but its prime time shows. I think plexes wont max out as much as endgame for obvious reasons. Plus we have few holdovers taking a screen each as well. Though I expect anything older than 2 weeks to get slaughtered that day. 

 

Late shows have more limited potential though Dolby shows are doing great and big Imax are definitely not empty. But 2d does not have similar potential. 

 

Anyway few more big plexes. 

 

AMC at Universal LA - 4142/5071 82634.50 38 shows

AMC Disney Orlando - 4501/4579 65188.69 21 shows // This is nuts

AMC Metreon SF -1982/2980 42096.98 15 shows

AMC Eastridge San Jose - 2036/3667 34278.94 14 shows

 

I hope AMC adds more Dolby screens. No reason why 1 plex cannot have more than 1 dolby. Many Cinemark have more than 1 XD in a theater.  

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah the MTC2 start seems really strong as well. Maybe all these posts above are just gonna look silly. 

Good enough for double digit OD?