The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-4)

MTC1 - 65015/356356 962900.15 2222 shows

 

20% better than yesterday. But couple of hours more of data. 

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-3)

MTC1 - 72136/356483 1058761.98 2225 shows

 

 

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I thought this might be the case. I remember you mentioned something like the theaters owing them 70% of WSS take (I don't recall the exact details) but in my head I was like, "If the numbers are bad enough they would probably just take that hit because they can make enough elsewhere to cover the difference."

 

It is actually more about Encanto than it is West Side Story.  They could still bully theaters into keeping WSS clean, but what they didn't expect is that Encanto would hold up so well.  They fully thought it would be dead by the time it came out on Disney+, but it has come in 2nd with a great hold and they think it will keep going into January and they are willing to let theaters put it together with WSS to keep it going.  

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Remember when I said that theaters had to commit to holding West Side Story on a full schedule through Jan. 6th?

 

Uh..... yeah.  Disney is going to eat a shit sandwich on it in the morning.  At best it will be put on a screen with Encanto.  

FWIW the theater I'm seeing Sing 2 at on Christmas Day (which is the same one I saw Spider-Man at this weekend) is moving it back to a bigger auditorium on Saturday during the day (the 2:30 show is filling up fast, to my surprise) before moving it to a small 50 seat one for the last show at night (guessing a last show for Spider-Man takes over the big one) after selling out plenty of shows this weekend in just 50 seat auditoriums. The movie's so long they can only fit a certain number of shows per day so wouldn't be surprised if Encanto gets a morning show (since the D+ release and so many new movies, including a big animated sequel, means it's gonna get cut down a lot this weekend) and then WSS takes over the rest of the day at a lot of places.

 

Although I have to laugh that it's getting bigger theater space here than The King's Man. Even Disney is happy to finally be rid of it.

[Joyous Legion]

That makes sense. Encanto at 2x WSS here -- nobrainer which to try to protect screens for more.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

MGM probably should have just stuck with the 2000 release for Licorice Pizza. That has considerably more buzz than all of West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Journal for Jordan and American Underdog. WSS just collapsed almost 70% and is being put on the smallest screens, Nightmare Alley is rejected, Journal for Jordan has no buzz and American Underdog is probably under 3m. If adults venture out for Christmas, they might just default to Matrix if Licorice isn't playing near them. The less said about Kingsmen the better

 

But with January only having Scream and Morbius, they seem to be playing the long game which I understand. 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-3)

MTC1 - 72136/356483 1058761.98 2225 shows

 

 

Can see it doing maybe 10k-15k-45k for a 142k finish on the low end. Maybe 7-8 million final. Wish we had data from Beta as it started very well there.

[filmlover]

I mentioned this before but the brutal numbers for everything but Encanto this weekend is because Spider-Man just squeezed everything into the smallest theaters. Nightmare Alley is 2.5 hours long (almost 3 if we want to include trailers) and has only puny auditoriums to work with. A movie can only do so well under the circumstances of being suffocated by a monster (Encanto is lucky it's a relatively short movie compared to everything else out at the moment, and also the most compatible title for families that were looking for a back-up option). 

 

We'll just have to see how everything recovers (or not) as people will have time off over the next few weeks. Staying power over the holidays is obviously an entirely different beast.

[Eric is Quiet]

I respect the optimism here, and I'm sure my stuff is an outlier, but...I dunno, I remember NTTD starting to flounder at the same point in time here in Philly, while things seemed fine with the other trackers, only for it to open to lukewarm results. And when you consider the fact that Matrix is probably fan-driven in presales and Spider-Man is sucking up all the attention in multiplexes, both in gross and WOM, I just think we're in real trouble here. I really am wishing the best for Matrix, like I do with every movie, but I feel like my Philly sales shouldn't just be waved off just yet.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Eric Osborn said:

I respect the optimism here, and I'm sure my stuff is an outlier, but...I dunno, I remember NTTD starting to flounder at the same point in time here in Philly, while things seemed fine with the other trackers, only for it to open to lukewarm results. And when you consider the fact that Matrix is probably fan-driven in presales and Spider-Man is sucking up all the attention in multiplexes, both in gross and WOM, I just think we're in real trouble here. I really am wishing the best for Matrix, like I do with every movie, but I feel like my Philly sales shouldn't just be waved off just yet.

Everything is terrible, I'm just trying to be optimistic. Keyser's latest numbers are exactly in line with what Charlie predicted to get it to 8.5, fwiw.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nightmare Alley is 2.5 hours long 

For real? This has truly been the Q4 of 5 million long movies.

[Cmasterclay]

I predict that Matrix will either break the HBO Max viewing record (by whatever timeframe they use) or at worst finish top three. That might be the more important figure here.

[filmlover]

My biggest concern about The Matrix is that because it's available at home at the same time (basically for free), it's bound to be extremely frontloaded like the majority of the WB day-and-date titles have. We might be looking at a situation where its Christmas Day is significantly smaller than the first day (I've been monitoring sales for all movies on Christmas Day in my area and the signs for it certainly aren't encouraging).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I can't speak for Christmas but based on what I personally see here... I'd take the over on 8.5m OD. 

 

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said:

For real? This has truly been the Q4 of 5 million long movies.

'Tis the season to hold your bladder.

 

I'm still very much excited to see Nightmare Alley but I can easily wait to see it at some point over the next two weeks when I'll have the time for it and a whole bunch of other movies that I'm looking to catch up on.

[motionpic05]

Any word on SCREAM ticket sales?

 

I've heard that they've been very strong

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

My Cinemark’s Scream sales aren’t great for Thursday 

 

715XD- 0

745- (3)

1010XD- 0

8pm LIVE FAN EVENT- (3)

 

It’s selling better at the AMC Dolby 

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Any word on SCREAM ticket sales?

 

I've heard that they've been very strong

I just checked my theater for OD and uhh, strong isn’t the word I would use for it here…

 

10 tickets sold so far.

[Porthos]

Took a suuuuuuuper quick look at TMR locally for Wed.

 

Good News: It's 1.83x of Dune at T-3 (9.3m) and 1.47x NTTD at T-3 (9.1m).

BAD NEWS: It's an All Day Release, which means Matinee tickets AND Early Bird tickets for the locations that have them.  Plus no 3D and next to no PLF.

 

That means those comp numbers need to come down by more than a little.  Is an R-rated release at least which will bump up the ATP from fewer kids tickets, but still.  

 

Guesstimate maaaaaybe 8m or so from that look as an Opening Day?  Can't really say as I never track all day releases and the paucity of PLF is fucking with the comps even more.  But 9.3 * 0.85 ≈ 7.9m, and let's bump it up a little for R rated tickets. 

[Krissykins]

Horror films don’t usually go on sale 4 weeks in advance though do they? Hopefully Scream picks up nearer the time and that it doesn’t get pushed due to omicron.
 

Obviously Omicron is going to push some of its international release dates (Netherlands, Germany, France, Ireland etc). Wonder if Paramount will make it available digitally for those countries. 

[Danhjpn]

@GoblinXXR do you have presale for NWH Monday?