The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	9001	9405	4.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              2

Total Seats Added Today:                 322

Total Seats Sold Today:                    173

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.9147x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after two days of pre-sales. [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

Pika (day 2)             53  tickets sold that day   [0 sellouts/69 showings   |  7486/7697 seats left   |  2.74% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5032x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after two days of pre-sales            [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Aladdin has 24]

.4888x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after two days of pre-sales  [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin has 24]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (day 2)                    180 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/97 showings     |    9338/10113 seats left  |   7.66% sold]

Aladdin (JW adj)* (day 2)    173 tickets sold today     [0 sellouts/68 showings     |    7039/7429 seats left   |   5.25% sold]

FB2 (day 2)                    150 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12571/13377 seats left |   6.03% sold] 

Aladdin (FBadj)** (day 2)    173 tickets sold today     [0 sellouts/68 showings     |    8105/8499 seats left   |   4.64% sold]    

*  Aladdin (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos

[dakus]

@Porthos that seems to be in line with the relative spike in sales today for Pikachu that other people have noticed, right? 

 

I’m honestly wondering if Sonic unironically did have a notable impact on the awareness for the movie today.

 

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, dakus said:

@Porthos that seems to be in line with the relative spike in sales today for Pikachu that other people have noticed, right? 

 

I’m honestly wondering if Sonic unironically did have a notable impact on the awareness for the movie today.

 

It definitely did 

 

detective pikachu was trending worldwide for good 7 hours because of sonic trailer 

[Porthos]

Just now, dakus said:

@Porthos that seems to be in line with the relative spike in sales today for Pikachu that other people have noticed, right? 

 

I’m honestly wondering if Sonic unironically did have a notable impact on the awareness for the movie today.

 

Maybe.  Looks more in line with the growth that a film should see as it is getting close to release (notice that both JW2 and FB2 also have been going up).

 

There was a couple of theaters where the sales certainly spiked (not gonna name them), with one showing selling over 20 tickets today and another over a dozen.  That's showings not total sales at the theater.

 

I'd call it more sustained growth than anything else.  But, sure, if we want to give the buzz some credit, I won't discount it.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Maybe.  Looks more in line with the growth that a film should see as it is getting close to release (notice that both JW2 and FB2 also have been going up).

 

There was a couple of theaters where the sales certainly spiked (not gonna name them), with one showing selling over 20 tickets today and another over a dozen.  That's showings not total sales at the theater.

 

I'd call it more sustained growth than anything else.  But, sure, if we want to give the buzz some credit, I won't discount it.

#Aksually, I was much more impressed with Aladdin's sales today.  Yes, it was the second day of pre-sales, so it should still be somewhat strong.  But it beat Pika Pika's second day sales like a red-headed step child.

 

As I check, it was on par (i.e. close to one direction or the other) with the second day sales of Solo, JW, and FB2. 

 

A lot of it was powered by sales at Century Arden (63 tickets sold there by my quick count), but not all of it.  

 

Aladdin might be a bit stronger than I thought.  Or could just be a localized one day spike. Be interested to see how it goes, especially as it won't have that long of a fallow period (the period between strong initial sales and strong pre-sales before release).

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos

[dakus]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Maybe.  Looks more in line with the growth that a film should see as it is getting close to release (notice that both JW2 and FB2 also have been going up).

 

There was a couple of theaters where the sales certainly spiked (not gonna name them), with one showing selling over 20 tickets today and another over a dozen.  That's showings not total sales at the theater.

 

I'd call it more sustained growth than anything else.  But, sure, if we want to give the buzz some credit, I won't discount it.

Yeah, I wasn't sure if its simply standard ramp-up or not. Maybe a bit of both? Either way, its good to see. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

Yeah, I wasn't sure if its simply standard ramp-up or not. Maybe a bit of both? Either way, its good to see. 

Probably a bit of both as I did see some definite spikes in there along with the sustained growth. 

 

Either way, it was good for Pika Pika no matter how it got them. 

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Probably a bit of both as I did see some definite spikes in there along with the sustained growth. 

 

Either way, it was good for Pika Pika no matter how it got them. 

Hopefully it will continue to increase a lot especially with embargo being lifted on Thursday. Which is the same day as the US premiere.

[Biggestgeekever]

A lot of theaters have their times up yet, but in the Seattle area, Aladdin has sold practically nothing except for the first Dolby AMC shows of the night. Even the Regal LieMAX here hasn't sold a single ticket yet. There's also 5PM fan events (lol wut) that have sold a whopping 5 tickets across 3 showtimes. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

There's also 5PM fan events (lol wut) that have sold a whopping 5 tickets across 3 showtimes. 

We have two locally.  Both 3D.  Blech.

 

Century Arden has sold 38 tickets (out of 110) for its fan event showing and Regal Delta Shores has sold 16 tickets (out of 76) for its.

 

Regal Delta Shores, as an aside, is slowly creeping up my internal tier list for theaters in Sacramento as I look at overall sales.  It's not quite at the level of Century Arden, Century Blue Oaks, or Studio Movie Grill Rocklin, but it's rapidly rising to the top of the middle tier.  Speaking of middle tier, been getting a better handle on Century Greenback (one of the new tracking sources I have).  I'd have to put it also at the top of the middle tier, but not quite yet in the top tier.

 

There's reason why overall ticket sales have been spiking on my last few tracks and it's nearly entirely due to having seat level info for what appears to be one stronger theaters in town.

 

I will be very very interested in seeing what is going down at Century Folsom if they ever convert to reserved seating, as I do happen to see the occasional non-reserved seating sellout there.

[cdsacken]

50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

#Aksually, I was much more impressed with Aladdin's sales today.  Yes, it was the second day of pre-sales, so it should still be somewhat strong.  But it beat Pika Pika's second day sales like a red-headed step child.

 

As I check, it was on par (i.e. close to one direction or the other) with the second day sales of Solo, JW, and FB2. 

 

A lot of it was powered by sales at Century Arden (63 tickets sold there by my quick count), but not all of it.  

 

Aladdin might be a bit stronger than I thought.  Or could just be a localized one day spike. Be interested to see how it goes, especially as it won't have that long of a fallow period (the period between strong initial sales and strong pre-sales before release).

85+ OW imo

Release the whole new world trailer already ugh.

Edited May 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[Cap]

Pika Pika - John Wick 3 - Aladdin

Thursday Previews

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic (3 Theaters)

 

	5/1/2019	Total	Percentage
Pika Pika	11	994	1.10%
John Wick 3	2	758	0.26%
Aladdin	0	1336	0%

 

So, as I have said before, our area is NOT pre-sale heavy.  As you can see, AT ALL.  Going to be interesting to see when the "walk-ups" kick in.  (Not including Full Chart yet, cause it's a bunch of zeroes.)

 

NYC - Lincoln Square 13

 

	5/1/2019	Total	Percentage
Pika Pika	155	654	23.70%
John Wick 3	313	594	52.69%
Aladdin	277	1554	17.82%

 

Couple Notes:

 

1. I don't have hard data, but from a cursory glance at yesterday's showings, I know that Pika Pika had a spike today.

2. I'm honestly "Huh" at the John Wick numbers.  But as a friend pointed out: John Wick's fandom can't get content from other medias, whereas Pokemon fans have tons of other outlets.

3. 169 of the Aladdin tickets are for the IMAX 7:00PM show.  

 

Full Breakdown Chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

Spoiler

Lincoln Square	5/1/2019	Total	Percentage
	Pika Pika - Thursday, May 9, 2019
STD 4:00PM	18	218	8.25%
STD 6:45PM	80	218	36.69%
3D 9:45PM	57	218	26.14%
TOTAL	155	654	23.70%
	John Wick 3 - Thursday, May 16, 2019
DOLBY 7:00PM	228	297	76.76%
DOLBY 10:00PM	85	297	28.61%
TOTAL	313	594	52.69%
	Aladdin - Thursday, May 23, 2019
IMAX 7:00PM	169	480	35.20%
IMAX 10:15PM	24	480	0.05%
DOLBY 6:00PM	66	297	22.22%
DOLBY 9:15PM	18	297	6.06%
TOTAL	277	1554	17.82%

 

[cdsacken]

Aladdin will have a huge range but it all depends on good it is. Dumbo was horrible and did 46. Imo if it wasn't gloomy, 40 minutes too long and actually great it does 65 OW. 

 

Hoping it's good really hoping but still no idea.

[Perfundle]

55 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

A lot of theaters have their times up yet, but in the Seattle area, Aladdin has sold practically nothing except for the first Dolby AMC shows of the night. Even the Regal LieMAX here hasn't sold a single ticket yet. There's also 5PM fan events (lol wut) that have sold a whopping 5 tickets across 3 showtimes. 

Not unexpected. Remember that an energy surge knocked out power across the entire Pacific Northwest.

[Brainbug]

5 hours ago, Nova said:

I actually think Fallen Kingdom will be a decent comp IF (and that's a big IF) Pikachu ends up being walk-up based. I say that because like you Fallen Kingdom never set my theater on fire in terms of sales. I was even bitching about it in the tracking thread when tickets went on sale and throughout its sale cycle. Sorry @Brainbug. Another thing is that *spoiler alert* Fallen Kingdom sold 18 tickets total between Saturday and Tuesday of release. Another *spoiler alert* But my Thursday morning of release note had it increased by 100 tickets between that Tuesday update and Thursday update. Will it be a good comp in the end? Who knows. But I might as well use the data that I have and see if it lines up in the end. 

 

*I also have *cough Solo cough* numbers and Deadpool 2 numbers too. Solo I have a couple days before release and Deadpool 2 I am pretty sure I have good data for it. I guess I could also see how it compares to those two as well. 

 

5 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Another solid reason to use JW2 is that it was also in the wake of a monster hit (Incredibles 2), and that impacted presales to the point that quite a few people were expecting a sub-100M opening by Thursday.

 

I think 50% of my posts in spring/early summer 2018 were me trying to explain to people why Fallen Kingdom would not rely on presales and would easily open to 120M+. So many people didnt believe me because "the presales were bad!"

 

I was right.

 

They were wrong.

 

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

I think 50% of my posts in spring/early summer 2018 were me trying to explain to people why Fallen Kingdom would not rely on presales and would easily open to 120M+. So many people didnt believe me because "the presales were bad!"

 

I was right.

 

They were wrong.

 

Tbh I think this might happen with DP and it'll definitely happen again with KoTM.

[cdsacken]

Back to America tomorrow. So much stuff. 10 hour flight to Seattle from London.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Tbh I think this might happen with DP and it'll definitely happen again with KoTM.

Most optimistic prediction is 82 million lowered before End Game even completed it's monstrous weekend and subsequent monster Monday and Tuesday. Personally I think 82 is awesome and with amazing reviews we could see 90. I hope so imo, I want 250 DOM for it.

[Nova]

21 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Back to America tomorrow. So much stuff. 10 hour flight to Seattle from London.

Is the Coke Zero coming with you? You know the US has got plenty of that stuff. All different flavors too 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

I think 50% of my posts in spring/early summer 2018 were me trying to explain to people why Fallen Kingdom would not rely on presales and would easily open to 120M+. So many people didnt believe me because "the presales were bad!"

 

I was right.

 

They were wrong.

 

Well it was funny expectations went from

1. Fallen Kingdom having a good shot of No 1 of 2018 beating Infinity War 

2. Well it ain't beating Infinity War and presales are looking poor not sure if this makes that much more to $1 Billion

3. $1.3 Billion which is where expectations probably should have been in the first place

 

I'm not sure if Jurassic World 3 increases or decreases from Fallen Kingdom yet