The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Perfundle]

21 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

I don't think there is any one comp that works for Pika Pika. It's a PG live-action family flick but with a built-in fanbase that will probably come out opening weekend to see it. I think its legs will fall lower than the average family film but higher than, say, CBMs.

I still think Shazam is a great comp. Sure, it's PG-13, but the trailers didn't look PG-13, and a lot more families went to that than normal, looking at how high its opening Saturday was compared to Friday. DP and Shazam have nearly identical Friday/Saturday presale ratios as well.

 

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The first trailer and it's amount of views would gear it more toward an I2 kind of appeal than CR, Dumbo or Mary Poppins.  It has 60m views on the WB YT channel.  The second one has 25m views.

And Shazam works here as well. with 43m views for its first trailer and 17m for its second.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Inc 2:  18.5m previews. 182.69m OW (9.875x) SUMMER MOVIE

Power:  3.6m previews.   40.30m OW (11.194x)

 

For what it's worth, it was the Inc 2 number which made me originally think around a 10x multi more or less for Pikachu.

 

So while I was pulling it out of my ass, I wasn't completely pulling it out of my nether regions.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Hell why not throw a comp to Bohemian Rhapsody and The VVitch 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Yes but it’s presales don’t indicate an I2 or BATB kind of appeal. Kinda like how Fallen Kingdom had a lot of trailer views but its presales didn’t indicate that either. 

 

And if you flip it, MPR had less trailers views but still did really well in presales if I remember correctly. 

 

So not sure I wanna go on that either. 

FK trailer views off from World as far s I recall.   They were overall not indicative of a sequel doing as well or better than the original - and it didn't.

 

That DPs pre-sales don't indicate  an I2 kind of appeal while it's trailers did might mean a fall off in interest - because that interest was there or we wouldn't have had so many sky high predictions when it came out.

 

Then there's also the elephant in the room.  AEG is so enormous it's  1)  sucked the energy out of the room for other films and/or  2) skewed pre-sale data for other films on the Fandango charts b/c it's filling up the 4k or whatever quota so that we're not getting representational data compared to other films

[Nova]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

Hell why not throw a comp to Bohemian Rhapsody and The VVitch 

I mean at this point 

[YM!]

The more I think about it, the more I like Spider Verse and Lego Batman as comparisons, sure both are animated but skewed more towards males and the former had strong trailer views.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, Nova said:

I mean at this point 

Tfw when this breaks out like BR

[Cap]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I mean at this point 

[TwoMisfits]

Is there a Mother's Day weekend opener that is comparable?  It is a very weird weekend usually...if you draw mom, you do awesome on Sunday...if not, you suffer a little:)...

 

I'm not sure what the "mom draw" movie is this year, so I'm not sure which movie we'll see go super high on Sunday...or if all the movies share a little b/c moms can't decide either:)...

 

PS - I guess Poms or Hustle could be it...but, I don't know:)...

Edited May 2, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Nova]

Me trying to figure out Detective Pikachu comps 

[Cappoedameron]

Hopefully BOP's report on Friday is gonna do something cause it seems like the only thing everyone is doing is getting a headache at this point from trying to figure out an unknown like Pikachu. 

[Porthos]

The other real problem with an Incredibles 2 comp is as the preview number goes higher, the multi goes down.  Even EG 'only' had a 5.95x or so multi off a 60m Thur.  

 

('only' he says )

 

11 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The more I think about it, the more I like Spider Verse and Lego Batman as comparisons, sure both are animated but skewed more towards males and the former had strong trailer views.

You all are really gonna make me do these two by two, aren't ya?  Fine. But I'm stopping real soon now.

 

Spider-Verse:  3.5m previews  35.36 OW (10.103x)

Lego Batman:  2.2m previews  53.00 OW (24.909x)

 

....

 

 

That's it.  I'm done.  Figure it out yourselves. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

The other real problem with an Incredibles 2 comp is as the preview number goes higher, the multi goes down.  Even EG 'only' had a 5.95x or so multi off a 60m Thur.  

 

('only' he says )

 

You all are really gonna make me do these two by two, aren't ya?  Fine. But I'm stopping real soon now.

 

Spider-Verse:  3.5m previews  35.36 OW (10.103x)

Lego Batman:  2.2m previews  53.00 OW (24.909x)

 

....

 

 

That's it.  I'm done.  Figure it out yourselves. 

So my original 10x multiplier wasn't far of Spidey's. 

 

All that work and back to square 1 anyways 

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The other real problem with an Incredibles 2 comp is as the preview number goes higher, the multi goes down.  Even EG 'only' had a 5.95x or so multi off a 60m Thur.  

 

('only' he says )

 

You all are really gonna make me do these two by two, aren't ya?  Fine. But I'm stopping real soon now.

 

Spider-Verse:  3.5m previews  35.36 OW (10.103x)

Lego Batman:  2.2m previews  53.00 OW (24.909x)

 

....

 

 

That's it.  I'm done.  Figure it out yourselves. 

How im imagine porthos right now 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Spider-Verse:  3.5m previews  35.36 OW (10.103x)

Lego Batman:  2.2m previews  53.00 OW (24.909x)

Pack it up boys, we solved it.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Cappoedameron]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I2 has the problem of being right at the beginning of summer.

 

But, sure, let's do I2 and Power Rangers:

 

Inc 2:  18.5m previews. 182.69m OW (9.875x) SUMMER MOVIE

Power:  3.6m previews.   40.30m OW (11.194x)

 

And PR's had the unfortunate privilege of going against the 2nd weekend of BATB. Also being a kids property with a PG-13 is something the director of the film mentioned LG's told him how if it was PG the PR film could have made a ton of more money. 

[JB33]

Yeah, you guys are going to get headaches trying to figure out good comps. Don't get me wrong, I know why this forum exists so go nuts, it's just maybe Detective Pikachu really doesn't have anything to compare to and this will be something new from which we can learn in the future.

 

Carry on. I'm done lecturing haha.

[Nova]

@Porthos how's End Game looking this weekend? 

[dakus]

Honestly, one of the more depressing parts about Endgame breaking fandango is that it’s handicapped Pikachu’s use as a future comp, which would be quite valuable due to its uniqueness.

 

In terms of predicting its IM, it’s a complete crapshoot like basically everything else with this movie. This uncertainty why it’s captivated me so much from a box office perspective. The more I play around with the suggested comps the more i’m feeling lower mid-teens (13-14 or so), but i’m obviously less knowledgeable on this then most of you and my only source is my ass.

Edited May 2, 2019 by dakus

[Perfundle]

14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The more I think about it, the more I like Spider Verse and Lego Batman as comparisons, sure both are animated but skewed more towards males and the former had strong trailer views.

Both of those have issues as well (what doesn't at this point?) Spider-Verse skewed heavily male to the tune of 2 to 1, and I'm expecting a much more balanced ratio for DP. As for Lego Batman, it actually was balanced as well (slightly more females actually), but that movie had its potential preview audience completely decimated by two other movies: John Wick: Chapter Two which took away the adult males and Fifty Shades Darker which took away the adult females.