The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Let's also not forget that what we see on Fandango is a sample (not even necessarily representative).  If some of us are seeing one thing at local theaters but Fandango is suggesting another, it might not be us who are wrong.

 

Not saying this is definitive, just throwing out a reminder about how Pulse works.

 

EDITED TO ADD:::  And, also, Pikachu isn't the end all and be all of comps here as well.  Something else to keep in mind.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[stealthyfrog]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

No Disney sacrifice on Memorial Day weekend next year and see how shit 2020 is looking like for Disney.

 

Folks at Disney need to prepone Artemis Fowl a week.

They should move Artemis Fowl to Memorial Day weekend. Just kill it gracefully

[Menor the Destroyer]

Very odd discrepancy between Fandango and a lot of folks here. Possibly it's bc people here are mostly tracking Thurs, so perhaps Aladdin will have a relatively weak Thursday but a really strong internal multiplier

[Maximum Avery]

31 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So how does this work again? I turn the lights off, say “walk up heavy” 3 times in front of a mirror, and it hits 100M?

150m 4 day hopefully/135m~ bottom, otherwise this whole bad movie narrative put a dent in its potential and that makes me wonder about the persistence of internet trolls having an effect and being influential... if first you dont succeed, pick 1 other disney victim and try again... speaking of captain marvel, this makes me wonder were 50m+ left on the table or has the antitroll movement canceled that out...I expected 530m domestic as the highest end possible(just going on black panther phenom numbers), it made perfectly fine and then some 425m so i might be imagining 😕

 

 

TTVOMJ

Edited May 23, 2019 by Maximum Avery
Typos

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Very odd discrepancy between Fandango and a lot of folks here. Possibly it's bc people here are mostly tracking Thurs, so perhaps Aladdin will have a relatively weak Thursday but a really strong internal multiplier

Could be.  My local only has 4 showings on Thur but 25 starting Friday

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Let's also not forget that what we see on Fandango is a sample (not even necessarily representative).  If some of us are seeing one thing at local theaters but Fandango is suggesting another, it might not be us who are wrong.

 

Not saying this is definitive, just throwing out a reminder about how Pulse works.

 

EDITED TO ADD:::  And, also, Pikachu isn't the end all and be all of comps here as well.  Something else to keep in mind.

I don’t think Pikachu is the best of comps either. BUT given the fact that it’s been blowing it out of the water on Fandago, I assumed it would be blowing it out of the water at my theater as well. Which is why I’m wondering why it’s settling in the range of it and JW3. Again it could very well be that my theater is simply going to have an underperformance. Obviously I’ll know if this is the case after the movie opens but just seems odd that Fandago sales aren’t translating locally given the fact it’s doing so well. 

[Tinalera]

If this has a deadline opening or lower there will still be a good wom hope ( but long faces at exec meetings tuesday morning). But if wom does not carry over, one has to wonder if they start thinking if aladdin did poor what does that mean for little mermaid lady and the tramp mulan ect for attendance ( i think lion king dodges this but its still in the mix). 

Whats the cut off? Is disney happy with remakes making 500 mil and up? Just wonder what they view return on investment? 

Because at the parks its becoming about star wars, marvel and (continuing) avatar with pixar in the mix imo. 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Tinalera

[filmlover]

Just now, Tinalera said:

If this has a deadline opening or lower there will still be a good wom hope ( but long faces at exec meetings monday morning). But if wom does not carry over, one has to wonder if they start thinking if aladdin did poor what does that mean for little mermaid lady and the tramp mulan ect for attendance ( i think lion king dodges this but its still in the mix). 

Whats the cut off? Is disney happy with remakes making 500 mil and up? Just wonder what they view return on investment? 

Because at the parks its becoming about star wars, marvel and (continuing) avatar with pixar in the mix imo. 

Lady and the Tramp is going to Disney+.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Very odd discrepancy between Fandango and a lot of folks here. Possibly it's bc people here are mostly tracking Thurs, so perhaps Aladdin will have a relatively weak Thursday but a really strong internal multiplier

As of right now:  http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

Aladdin             	2019-05-23	THU	12568	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-24	FRI	20297	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-25	SAT	13532	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-26	SUN	6529	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-27	MDY	2664	---
Aladdin             	GRAND TOTAL	TOTAL	55590	---

 

Old total on Mon Night:

 

On 5/20/2019 at 11:38 PM, Porthos said:

Well, the daily tracker should now be live for Aladdin:

(http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt)

 

Aladdin             	2019-05-23	THU	7350	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-24	FRI	10920	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-25	SAT	7661	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-26	SUN	3633	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-27	MDY	1334	---

 

Looks like Sat has a pretty decent spread already. Haven't really interpreted these all that much before though. so I can't comment on it that intelligently.

Thr:   +5218 (+70.99%)

Fri:    +9377 (+85.87%)

Sat:   +5871 (+76.63%)

Sun:  +2896 (+79.71%)

Mon: +1330 (+97.45%)

 

(+% = [Diff of Wed - Mon]/Mon)

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

This also might just be a local thing, but I noticed that when screen expansion happened over the last couple of days, a lot of them went to post 9pm showings.  One place put in four showings 9:50pm and later.  This place only added two showings before 9pm, both in the 6pm hour.

 

Which is just... Alrighty then.

 

There might be something of a screen crunch going on Thr Night that TalismanRing alluded to since Wick 3 is still doing very well and Endgame/Pika Pika are doing well enough.

 

I was expecting to see more showings in the prime window of 6pm to 8:30pm, so I did raise a bit of an eyebrow last night when I saw all those late showings pop up.

 

Could just be a local cluster.  But I did find it a bit odd.

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Lady and the Tramp is going to Disney+.

I hadnt heard this. But it fits with the idea that ive heard the other reason they are pumping out the films is for content for disney plus ( and that goes into a whole discussion ot about streaming and film lol)

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As of right now:  http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

Aladdin             	2019-05-23	THU	12568	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-24	FRI	20297	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-25	SAT	13532	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-26	SUN	6529	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-27	MDY	2664	---
Aladdin             	GRAND TOTAL	TOTAL	55590	---

 

Old total on Mon Night:

 

Thr:   +5218 (+70.99%)

Fri:    +9377 (+85.87%)

Sat:   +5871 (+76.63%)

Sun:  +2896 (+79.71%)

Mon: +1330 (+97.45%)

 

(+% = [Diff of Wed - Mon]/Mon)

What the hell is going on with this movie?

 

Clearly monday aren't inflating the numbers that much, is bizarre how it's doing so average on local theaters according to some folks here but it's doing so good on Fandango / Pulse [which was decent already in the past few days].

[Porthos]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

What the hell is going on with this movie?

 

Clearly monday aren't inflating the numbers that much, is bizarre how it's doing so average on local theaters according to some folks here but it's doing so good on Fandango / Pulse [which was decent already in the past few days].

I can't really comment on that daily spread much as I/this thread really doesn't look at it all that often.  I think Fri and Sat look pretty decent.  Hard to comment on Sun or Mon though without having other data points to compare/contrast.

 

Do think it's interesting though that there's a lot of traffic for Fri/Sat.  Suggests there isn't a rush factor to this movie and thus it might indeed have a decent internal multiplier.

 

Maybe.  Could be terrible ratio compared to other mid-range films.

[Minnale101]

Like others have said. People may just be looking at Thursday preview showings if their locals and determining the movie 

 

but pulse maybe showing the pre sales in all 4 days 

[Nova]

Disney went from paying critics to just paying for Fandango tickets. They’ve got checks to use after all 

 

 

 

*Bad Joke. I know.* 

 

Anyways @Porthos do you think the low Thursday night tickets compared to Friday could be because of showtimes? My theater still only has it for 2 showtimes and thus it can’t really grow from there. Another theater by me has it on 4 showtimes for Thursday night but then Friday is better in terms of showtimes. Maybe since it’s been selling well on Friday, theaters decided to just increase showtimes for FSS and keep Thursday balanced for other hold over movies? 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Disney went from paying critics to just paying for Fandango tickets. They’ve got checks to use after all 

 

 

 

*Bad Joke. I know.* 

 

Anyways @Porthos do you think the low Thursday night tickets compared to Friday could be because of showtimes? My theater still only has it for 2 showtimes and thus it can’t really grow from there. Another theater by me has it on 4 showtimes for Thursday night but then Friday is better in terms of showtimes. Maybe since it’s been selling well on Friday, theaters decided to just increase showtimes for FSS and keep Thursday balanced for other hold over movies? 

I am... hesitant to comment since I don't know a typical Thr/Fri split.  I think this link might have only been referenced a dozen or so times in this thread.  Really wouldn't want to comment until I got a sense if this was atypical, and in which direction.

 

I seem to recall Thr and Fri being more or less equal the few times we've bothered to check that link.  But that might just be senility setting in.

[Tinalera]

My silvercity went from 1 screen 4 showings to 12 showings 5 screens (1 IMAX). What ls really weird: 2 IMAX showings are in afternoon but no evening and 2 non imax ( but in same theatre) are at 7 and 10pm

 

Sales for weekend though are pretty anemic all around.

[Eric is Anxious]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Disney went from paying critics to just paying for Fandango tickets. They’ve got checks to use after all 

 

 

 

*Bad Joke. I know.* 

 

Anyways @Porthos do you think the low Thursday night tickets compared to Friday could be because of showtimes? My theater still only has it for 2 showtimes and thus it can’t really grow from there. Another theater by me has it on 4 showtimes for Thursday night but then Friday is better in terms of showtimes. Maybe since it’s been selling well on Friday, theaters decided to just increase showtimes for FSS and keep Thursday balanced for other hold over movies? 

That might be the case actually. My local theater only has four Thursday showtimes, 2 of which in 3D and 16 shows on Friday. I don't remember what Pikachu and Wick were like, but I'm pretty sure there was at least one more show for each. I guess the thinking is that Aladdin is going to appeal to families who likely wouldn't go to a Thursday show in the first place, and with Endgame, Wick and Pikachu all delivering at least 2M in the dailies at the moment, there's little incentive for theaters to push for extra showtimes.

 

So as a message to all reading this, if Aladdin's previews seem "soft", please, for the love of God, don't freak out!

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I am... hesitant to comment since I don't know a typical Thr/Fri split.  I think this link might have only been referenced a dozen or so times in this thread.  Really wouldn't want to comment until I got a sense if this was atypical, and in which direction.

 

I seem to recall Thr and Fri being more or less equal the few times we've bothered to check that link.  But that might just be senility setting in.

From what I remember, Pikachu Thursday was higher at this point in time than Friday and Saturday but JW3 had stronger Friday’s and Saturday than Thursday at this point in time. It’s why I thought mentally that JW3 would end up having a better multiplier that it ended up having. But that’s just two examples so not really representative and I don’t have raw data points to show the spread for either film so..

Edited May 23, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I am... hesitant to comment since I don't know a typical Thr/Fri split.  I think this link might have only been referenced a dozen or so times in this thread.  Really wouldn't want to comment until I got a sense if this was atypical, and in which direction.

 

I seem to recall Thr and Fri being more or less equal the few times we've bothered to check that link.  But that might just be senility setting in.

Checked out this post:

 

On 4/22/2019 at 8:23 PM, stfletch said:

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

 

For EG at least, Thr was much higher than Fri. That was the one post I found easily that had relevant data like I just quoted.  Now EG had a LOT of upfront demand, to say the least, but this might suggest a lack of frontloading.

 

Not sure how relevant that link @stfletch talked about since it won't be at the same point of time in Aladdin's run.  But it might be worth something for those who want to try to dig in it.

 

"Not it", BTW.