The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[CaptainJackSparrow]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM early screening I’m going to today is almost full 

Have fun!!

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

There are early screenings?

 

10 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

There are advanced AMC Stubs screenings tonight, but it's a typical, free advanced screening.

The one Mulder is going to is, as I understand it, a partial press screening but also with fans/interested folks attending to help fill out the theater.

 

There are also supposed to be other press screenings happening around the country today, FWIU.

[Mulder]

28 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM early screening I’m going to today is almost full 

Also know for a fact the DC one is also almost entirely filled

[Moose]

32 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM early screening I’m going to today is almost full 

What time is the screening EST?

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Moose said:

What time is the screening EST?

7 PM

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App: 12am - 3pm  PST

 

Aladdin: 9,830
JW3: 6,681
AEG: 3,853
Pika:2,061
Brightburn:706
Booksmart: 435

[MrGamer]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

7 PM

KOTM spoiler thread hype@DeeCee @Water Bottle

[keysersoze123]

Are the hourly numbers at akvalley accurate. It seems quite different from 15 minute numbers that ed sid had reported earlier. Of course ed sid is looking at particular 15 as opposed to continuous tracking done by akvalley.

Hourly numbers are in downward trend. Are the RT reviews impacting PS? The raw numbers are not impressive. Definitely does not look like a 100m opener even over 4 days.

I wish we got update from @Deep Wang

 

For now sticking with 80-90m over 4 days.

[Deep Wang]

I got nothin'

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are the hourly numbers at akvalley accurate. It seems quite different from 15 minute numbers that ed sid had reported earlier. Of course ed sid is looking at particular 15 as opposed to continuous tracking done by akvalley.

Hourly numbers are in downward trend. Are the RT reviews impacting PS? The raw numbers are not impressive. Definitely does not look like a 100m opener even over 4 days.

I wish we got update from @Deep Wang

 

For now sticking with 80-90m over 4 days.

Far fewer sales at 9am and 11am than mid afternoon or late at night.  Aladdin should finish around 20k

 

Pika: 13,177

Dumbo: 9,193

HTTYD3: 12,935

AQM: 15,063

Venom: 20,867

AM& TW: 11,108

 

 

Aladdin as per ed sid's numbers was averaging 23.13  at 11am. 

 

In comparison on Wed opening week - Pika avg 12.8 at 11am,  JL avg 27 at 10.10am

 

 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I got nothin'

I'm assuming its cause you had put specific dates aside to ask for numbers and Aladdin's release week wasn't one of those days? 

 

At least I remember you mentioning that several months ago but wasn't sure if that was still the case.  

[Mulder]

22 minutes ago, MrGamer said:

KOTM spoiler thread hype@DeeCee @Water Bottle

Sorry but if I sign an NDA you won’t get anything out of me. We’ll see what happens.

[dakus]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are the hourly numbers at akvalley accurate. It seems quite different from 15 minute numbers that ed sid had reported earlier. Of course ed sid is looking at particular 15 as opposed to continuous tracking done by akvalley.

Hourly numbers are in downward trend. Are the RT reviews impacting PS? The raw numbers are not impressive. Definitely does not look like a 100m opener even over 4 days.

I wish we got update from @Deep Wang

 

For now sticking with 80-90m over 4 days.

I know there is an clear disjoint between the hourly tracker and the 24 hour rolling tracker on akvalley. I’m pretty sure the hourly tracker tends to not actually catch every sale that may be captured by the rolling tracker or the manual count. I’d recommend treating all three methods independently instead of trying to cross reference each other, since that’ll probably skew things.

[Eric S'ennui]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are the hourly numbers at akvalley accurate. It seems quite different from 15 minute numbers that ed sid had reported earlier. Of course ed sid is looking at particular 15 as opposed to continuous tracking done by akvalley.

Hourly numbers are in downward trend. Are the RT reviews impacting PS? The raw numbers are not impressive. Definitely does not look like a 100m opener even over 4 days.

I wish we got update from @Deep Wang

 

For now sticking with 80-90m over 4 days.

As somebody who follows the hourly numbers, new releases almost always see a decline during the afternoon hours, and peak in the morning or early afternoon and late nights. That's mainly because people are trying to buy tickets for stuff currently in theaters and watch said stuff later tonight. Doesn't help that the John Wick series skews heavily to weekdays.

 

And FWIW, Aladdin's Wednesday is outpacing its Thursday by about 86%, which would translate to about 22.4K tickets. I do think it will decrease from that percentage by the end of the day, but I'd say 20K is a very, very strong possibility, and would be a solid result for the movie.

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Sorry but if I sign an NDA you won’t get anything out of me. We’ll see what happens.

Patiently awaits post from

 

     

NotMulderHonest

 

in a few hours then. 👍

[Mulder]

Hearing line talk about G-2014. If this is any indication then the mixed response to it won’t affect KoTM

[Biggestgeekever]

37 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Sorry but if I sign an NDA you won’t get anything out of me. We’ll see what happens.

I've only ever had to sign an NDA at an early screening when I was a +1 during a press/critic only showing. They want people watching tonight to hype up the movie so you'll be fine lol

[Nova]

The only way I can see Aladdin doing $85M for the 4-day is if it plays very heavily to females and thus is skewing the presales. And even then Id have to look at other comps for it. Because its presales are way too strong and all these outlets are drunk for predicting such a number. And yea yea I know that its better to be safe than sorry but still those tracking numbers just seem low given its Fandango numbers. 

 

Also I'm guessing for MDW that BOP will release its estimates tomorrow? I'm interested to see where BOP has it because they usually give a reasoning for their predictions and if they also have it opening around there, I wanna know why given its doing well in presales. Maybe @Shawn checks in tonight and can share his wisdom. 

 

Edit: never mind. BOP also posted their prediction (I guess I missed it) and its at $75m for the 4-day too….

 

 @CoolEric258 was right from what he said earlier today about trades being conservative cause BOP mentioned conservative estimates being a result of Disney having underperformers the last couple MDW. 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2019 by Nova

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

The only way I can see Aladdin doing $85M for the 4-day is if it plays very heavily to females and thus is skewing the presales. Because its presales are way too strong and all these outlets are drunk for predicting such a number. And yea yea I know that its better to be safe than sorry but still those tracking numbers just seem low. 

 

Also I'm guessing for MDW that BOP will release its estimates tomorrow? I'm interested to see where BOP has it because they usually give a reasoning for their predictions and if they also have it opening around there, I wanna know why given its doing well in presales. Maybe @Shawn checks in tonight and can share his wisdom. 

 

 

Already up: https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-aladdin-booksmart-brightburn-memorial-weekend/

 

They're going with $75M saying it's tracking similarly to Pirates 5

[Mulder]

No NDA you’ll be hearing from me.