The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/3/2019 at 4:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 71/411(+6)

10:45 PM – 4/411(+2)

Prime: 

7 PM – 75/187(+20)

10:45 PM – 15/187(+5)

Dolby: 

7 PM – 132/217

10:45 PM – 33/217(+13)

2D: 

5 PM – 17/56(+3)

5:15 PM – 7/38

5:30 PM – 6/38(+3)

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 19/48(+2)

6:15 PM – 3/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 8/158(+2)

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 6/92(+4)

7:30 PM – 10/94(+3)

8 PM – 11/48(+1)

8:15 PM – 3/48

8:30 PM – 7/44

8:45 PM – 2/56(+2)

9 PM – 5/38(+3)

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 0/94

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 29/384(+10)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 130/210(+9)

10:45 PM – 45/210(+13)

2D: 

5 PM – 16/85(+2)

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 3/52(+1)

6:30 PM – 11/52(+2)

7 PM – 54/159(+8)

7:30 PM – 4/85(+2)

7:45 PM – 7/85(+7)

8:45 PM – 4/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 5/52(+2)

NEW 10:30 PM – 0/159

Total from 9 theaters(115 showings): 1920(+333)/17298(+233) (11.1%)

TLK comp: 10.11M

Hobbs comp: 17.7M

OUATiH comp: 13.68M

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 34/384(+5)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 139/210(+9)

10:45 PM – 50/210(+5)

2D:

5 PM – 25/85(+9)

5:30 PM – 7/52(+5)

6 PM – 3/52

6:30 PM – 15/52(+4)

7 PM – 58/159(+4)

7:30 PM – 4/85

7:45 PM – 10/85(+3)

8:45 PM – 16/85(+12)

9:15 PM – 4/52(+2)

NEW 9:30 PM – 0/45

9:45 PM – 0/52

NEW 10 PM – 0/40

10:15 PM – 7/52(+2)

NEW 10:15 PM – 0/39

10:30 PM – 1/159(+1)

Total from 8 theaters(98 showings): 1839(+357)/15008(+936) (12.3%)

Well, I’ll just have to use what I’ve got.

Adjusted TLK comp: 10.2M

Adjusted Hobbs: 15.83M

Adjusted OUATiH: 13.34M

Also, I messed up again. OUATiH was only in 8 out of the 9 theaters I track, and I didn’t adjust for that yesterday. So, it really was 13.68M

[TalismanRing]

On 9/3/2019 at 4:37 PM, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local: 

 

IT2 (Tues 4:25PM)

35/301
18/255
10/257
12/248
17/301
32/301
11/205
13/256

25/320
19/320

 

Mon 9AM: 147/2764 = 5.31%
Tues: 4:25PM: 192/2764 = 6.94% (+45)

 

 

TLK:  (Tues: 4:30PM)  444/3228 = 13.75%  / $23m Previews --->  $9.95m
TS4 (Tues: 4PM) 165 /2049 = 8.05%  / $12m Previews --->  $13.96m

X-Men 7 (Tues: 4PM)  103/942 = 10.93%  / $5m Previews --->  $9.32m

OUATIH (Tues 2:15pm) 117/1179 = 9.82% / $5.8m Previews --->  $9.52m

 

 

 

NYC Local

 

IT2 (Wed 7:10PM)

38/301
24/255
13/257
12/248
17/301
38/301
12/205
17/256

49/320
19/320

 

Mon 9AM: 147/2764 = 5.31%
Tues: 4:20PM: 192/2764 = 6.94%
WED: 7:10: 239/2764 = 8.65%

 

TLK: (WED 7pm)  557/3228 = 17.26% - $23m ---> $9.87m

TS4: (WED 7:40pm)  233/2049 = 11.37% - $12m --->  $12.31m

GODZ2: Wed 7:45pm) 135/ 1915 = 7.04% = $6.3m ---> $11.15m

 

Don't have 7pm hour comps but

 

X-Men 7: (WED 3:15pm)  209/942 = 22.19% = $5m ---> $5.7m

Shazam: (WED 3:30pm)  129 / 2229 = 5.78% = $5.9m ---> $10.93m

OUATIH (WED 4pm) 159/1179 = 13.48% =$5.8m ---> $8.7m

[Old Spice]

In Salt Lake City It 2 was up 22% yesterday from Monday's cumulative and is running at a slightly faster pace today. It has now passed every other comp I have save for TLK. I haven't tracked daily moves before but given how high it was to start the week, those percentage moves seem pretty solid.

 

The one outlier I have to my $90-100 OW forecast is Once Upon. That comp will probably wind up in the $68-72 range.

[XXR & Friends]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Lets be real: We all want that 100M+ debut. It just looks nicer. But anyone who would call a 80M+ debut "bad" would be nuts in my opinion (this isnt directed at anyone specifically, just in general). A forecast of 90M+ for a R-Rated horror title is just awesome.

 

A 30% drop for a direct sequel to a well received movie would be pretty bad IMO, regardless of the comparative size. I don’t think it’ll be that bad though, I’m thinking in the 10-15% range. 

Edited September 5, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

Box Office Pro:

 

Quote

It: Chapter Two
Opening Weekend Range: $90 – 115 million

 

Seems to be a consensus forming on the range.

[RealLyre]

55 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

A 30% drop for a direct sequel to a well received movie would be pretty bad IMO, regardless of the comparative size. I don’t think it’ll be that bad though, I’m thinking in the 10-15% range. 

BP2 is almost guaranteed to decrease 25%-30% from its predecessor, would that make its potential 500M+ domestic haul "Bad" ?

[Joyous Legion]

8 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

BP2 is almost guaranteed to decrease 25%-30% from its predecessor, would that make its potential 500M+ domestic haul "Bad" ?

Venom was talking OWs. It’s unlikely BP2 will drop much if at all on that front.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 Venom was talking OWs. It’s unlikely BP2 will drop much if at all on that front.

hmm even for OWs I don't see BP2 matching 200M unless it has some crazy team up/crossover with other characters/arcs. (which is probably likely considering they're giving it the May spot in 2022).

 

 

what I was trying to say is that sequels to record breaking movies shouldn't be expected to stay flat or barley decrease from their predecessors. like I also don't think Avengers 5 will match the OW of EG for example. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

AMC Empire 25

IT2

 

It sold 112 tickets today but 2D sales are extremely weak. What works in its favor is ginormous show count and so with "good walkins" it will hit good previews. Anything below double digit will be bad.

 

Spoiler

IT Chapter 2
AMC Empire 25

Imax -203/303 (7PM),34/303 (1115PM) -237/606
Dolby -209/225 (7PM), 75/225 (11PM) -284/450
Prime -149/180 (7PM),53/180 (1045PM) - 202/360

2D - 20/145(A25 5PM),12/134(A5 515PM),7/126(A3 530PM),5/134(A10 545PM), 14/121(A21 6PM), 9/121 (A15 615PM), 7/99 (A11 630PM), 29/99 (A16 645PM), 39/142 (A19 715PM), 30/262(A17 730PM), 23/144(A20 745PM), 19/262(A12 8PM),6/148(A6 815PM),38/146(A7 830PM), 14/145(A25 845PM), 14/134(A5 9PM), 6/126(A3 915PM), 17/122(A10 930PM),7/121 (A21 945PM), 6/121(A15 10PM),0/99(A11 1015PM),19/99(A16 1030PM),0/309(A9 1110PM), 8/142 (A19 1120PM), 10/262 (A17 1130PM),9/144(A20 1140PM), 9/262 (A12 1150PM),10/148 (A6 12AM) -  387/4315

Overall  -1100(988)/5731 (19.19%) +112

 

[Nero]

4 hours ago, RealLyre said:

hmm even for OWs I don't see BP2 matching 200M unless it has some crazy team up/crossover with other characters/arcs. (which is probably likely considering they're giving it the May spot in 2022).

 

 

what I was trying to say is that sequels to record breaking movies shouldn't be expected to stay flat or barley decrease from their predecessors. like I also don't think Avengers 5 will match the OW of EG for example. 

 

 

Of course Avengers 5 wont have the same OW as EG cause most important avengers are gone. But for BP2 its possible to get 200M cause the cast is still alive.. Generally all MCU movie sequels have had a increase on OW so there's that.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Nero

[Eric the Minion]

Results should be up very soon. But I just gotta say...so. many. showtimes! so. much. tracking.

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Drifting off-topic, so if people want to continue please quote this in the BP2 thread. But I also don’t really see why it would decrease on OW. The legs were x3.5, so I think the common sequel pattern of worse legs but better OW will be followed. As Nero points out every MCU solo sequel has increased in admits on OW, with the smallest being IM2 at roughly +20%. BP2 of course is starting highest and that makes things harder, but the Avengers affect is still in play.  

 

With over 4 years of increased ticket price BP2 could fall 10% in OW admits and still clear 200M.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Eric! said:

Results should be up very soon. But I just gotta say...so. many. showtimes! so. much. tracking.

 

 

 

====

 

Samesies in SacTown. Another 22 showings were added today.

 

I reckon it's theaters starved for anything that folks might show up to, coz otherwise there's no reason for this many showtimes for a movie projected to open where it looks to be headed.

 

Makes me wonder what it'll do to both multi's (internal and off the OW).  That is, if there are sooooo many showtimes, it might burn through demand PDQ.

[Joyous Legion]

If showings aren’t selling out (or at least, selling out of the good seats) I feel like showings have a pretty limited effect, right? Like if we have Angel Has Fallen triple the showings it got (+200%), I doubt the OW would go up by even 5%.   

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

If showings aren’t selling out (or at least, selling out of the good seats) I feel like showings have a pretty limited effect, right? Like if we have Angel Has Fallen triple the showings it got (+200%), I doubt the OW would go up by even 5%.   

See, I was thinking about my low hanging fruit metaphor I like to break out on occasion.  The way I see it, someone might be looking at showtimes/seatmaps and thinking to themselves "Well, I was gonna wait 'till Saturday, but look at those great seats available."

 

Maybe not many.  But at the same time, I kinda think it's something of a factor.  New great seats being available when more showtimes get added the week of release is part of the ramp up when it comes to the days just before premiere.  Not the main factor, sure.  But a factor nonetheless, IMO.

[Eric the Minion]

It Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	150	2,389	26,801	8.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 18

Total Seats Added Today: 1,313

Total Seats Sold Today: 480

 

Comp

1.745x of Once Upon 1 day before release (10.1M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.323x of The Lion King 1 day before release (7.43M)

2.144x of Hobbs & Shaw 1 day before release (12.44M)

 

Like I said earlier, that's a lot of showtimes. It's actually slightly more than what Lion King finished with (138 showings). Of course, they both have a lot of factors going for them, especially since Lion King was in the heart of summer and It 2...is not. But hey, still plenty of showings for people to look through, though who knows if it's really needed?

 

Anyway on to the numbers....huh. Like yesterday, the raw numbers are okay, but when it comes to growth from yesterday, as well as how it compares to comps, I feel like sales should have done better. Or at least, if we want a breakout, it should have done better.

 

I don't know. The two comps that "fit" with It 2's demos still say over 10M, but the Once Upon one is only barely hanging on to that. But hey, other people's comps point to better results, and maybe things will be better tomorrow?

[FlashMaster659]

It: Chapter 2 Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	% Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6097	48651	42554	12.53%

 

Shows Added Today: 21

Seats Added Today: 4023

Seats Sold Today: 1287

 

AMC Ontario Mills 30 Thursday Mid-Day Comps (It: Chapter 2 sold 1328 seats as of this update):

4.2977x as many seats sold as Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark mid-day of previews [10.0m]

2.2624x as many seats sold as Once Upon a Time in Hollywood mid-day of previews [13.1m]

1.9415x as many seats sold as Hobbs and Shaw mid-day of previews [11.3m]

0.9083x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews [10.9m]

0.6157x as many seats sold as The Lion King mid-day of previews [14.2m]

 

Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX Thursday Mid-Day Comps (It: Chapter 2 sold 237 seats as of this update):

16.9286x as many seats sold as Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark mid-day of previews [39.4m]

2.5484x as many seats sold as Once Upon a Time in Hollywood mid-day of previews [14.8m]

7.4063x as many seats sold as Hobbs and Shaw mid-day of previews [43.0m]

0.4847x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters mid-day of previews [3.1m]

0.5725x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews [6.9m]

0.5108x as many seats sold as The Lion King mid-day of previews [11.7m]

 

===

 

Another strong day for It 2. Posting Thursday mid-day comps for the AMC Ontario Mills and Regal Ontario Palace since I won't be here tomorrow. As for the Regal, only the OUATIH and TLK comps are the ones that seem to make since while things are more consistent with the AMC comps.

Edited September 5, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	233	19743	23563	3820	16.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	22*
Total Seats Added Today	1235
Total Seats Sold Today	1001

* Includes 5 showings added today from non-reserved seating showings.

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in a few recent ones along with JW2 and DP2 and hope for the best.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	168.72		472	2257		0/112	8001/10258	22.00%		9.62m
Aladdin	151.96		580	2506		0/117	11420/13926	18.00%		10.64m
KotM	191.55		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		12.07m
TS4	82.84		816	4597		1/149	122689/16865	27.26%		9.94m
TLK	47.37		1208	8038		1/287	19742/27780	28.93%		10.90m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		992	3808		0/233	18176/21984	17.32%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. See this post for explanation.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	81.63		768	4192		0/147	9523/13715	25.19%		12.49m
DP2	57.72		835	5929		0/166	10226/16155	36.70%		10.73m
It 2 (JW adj)	n/a		875	3422		0/233	14739/18161	18.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

[Porthos]

It 2 fucking exploded in Sacto.  I know the ticket count is right, but I had to rush a bit on my comps as I'm right in the middle of some stuff so I'll do an error correct pass in about an hour to 90 minutes or so along with any analysis that might come to mind.

 

Either way, just a fantastic day locally and 10m+ is looking more and more likely, IMO.

 

Must dash, bye....

[Cap]

It: Chapter 2

Thursday Previews

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
Movie	Today		9/1	9/2	9/3	9/4	Total	%		SOs	Shows
It: Chapter 2	51		119	131	206	257	2039	12.60%		0	12

 

Lincoln Square 13
Movie	Today		9/1	9/2	9/3	9/4	Total	%		SOs	Shows
It: Chapter 2	72		811	865	933	1005	3772	26.64%		0	11

 

 

Wednesday Before Final Day Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Cinemagic Chain
It: Chapter 2	257	--	--
The Lion King	313	82.10%	18.88M
Toy Story 4	122	210.65%	25.27M
John Wick	95	270.52%	15.96M
Lincoln Square 13
It: Chapter 2	1005	--	--
The Lion King	2036	49.36%	11.35M
Toy Story 4	989	101.61%	12.19M
John Wick	577	174.16%	10.20M

 

I tossed Godzilla because that preview was so low.

 

CInemagic is just for the LOLz.  Tomorrow will be the real test.

 

Lincoln Square's comping out right now to 11.24M on average.