The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

@keysersoze123 The color charts are back!

 

Doctor Sleep

 

v Finale Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Doctor Sleep
Cinemagic	64	--	--
Zombieland	83	77.11%	2.20M
Scary Stories	130	49.23%	1.15M
It: Chapter 2	428	14.95%	1.57M
Average:			1.64M
Lincoln Square	123	--	--
Zombieland	241	51.04%	1.45M
It: Chapter 2	1174	10.48%	1.10M
Countdown	42	292.85%	1.50M
Average:			1.35M
Empire 25	454	--	--
Crawl	131	346.56%	3.47M
Zombieland	339	133.92%	3.82M
Countdown	144	315.28%	1.62M
Terminator	564	80.50%	1.93M
Average:			2.71M

 

I don't really have enough comps for AMC Empire 25, but it's definitely coming in way way hotter than Lincoln Square and Cinemagic.  I would say 1.5M.

 

Midway

 

v Finale Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Midway
Lincoln Square	78	--	--
John Wick	675	11.55%	0.682M
Hobbs & Shaw	525	14.85%	0.862M
Gemini Man	319	24.45%	0.391M
Average:			0.645M
Empire 25	243	--	--
Hobbs & Shaw	283	85.86%	4.98M
Gemini Man	601	40.43%	0.647M
Terminator	564	43.09%	1.03M
Average:			2.22M

 

I feel like I have no good comps for this movie, but eh.  Empire 25 is higher, again, so I would go with Lincoln Square.  (I tossed in John Wick because it's been such a dependable comp over the year, so) 0.775M

 

Last Christmas

 

v Finale Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Last Christmas
Lincoln Square	169	--	--
OUATIH	1232	13.72%	0.796M
Racing In The Rain	38	444.74%	2.00M
Average:			1.40M
Empire 25	121	--	--
Stuber	94	128.72%	0.965M
Racing In The Rain	64	189.06%	0.851M
Average:			0.908M

 

Again, I feel like I have zero good comps for this, but here we go.  This isn't based on anything but personal taste: I feel like it doesn't really matter what it does in previews, cause this film's going to live and die by its legs.  Hopefully it will be able to keep onto its theaters in Early December.  Cause, again, this is totally personally, but this is gonna be my Thanksgiving Night/Black Friday movie, since I'm totally one of those "we don't celebrate or talk about Christmas until AFTER Thanksgiving people."

 

But I really love the cast, and Feig, and George Michael, so I hope it's 1.4M

 

I don't have Playing with Fire data cause I forgot it came out this weekend LOL.

[Rorschach]

3 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Update: 

 

2D

6:00 (final) - 36/238

9:35 - 4/238

 

IMAX

7:00 - 6/387

10:30 - 0/387

 

Total: 46/1,250 (3.68% of all seats sold

 

Final Doctor Sleep Update:

 

2D

6:00 (final) - 36/238

9:35 (final) - 12/238

 

IMAX

7:00 (final) - 9/387

10:30 (final) - 2/387

 

Total: 59/1,250 (4.72% of all seats sold)

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Remember, I only cover Thr previews I feel are going to hit more than 7m, so there's plenty of films that I don't as well as days I wouldn't be looking at.

 

Also kinda thinking of maybe we might split this up between posters (not exactly volunteering, BTW).  Though I am more than a little worried that Fandango might view multiple people scraping as something akin to a DDoS, so I'm a little wary here.

Selenium won't look like a DDoS as it's too slow (literally just an automated browser) to cause huge strain on the server. But I'm going to try to resolve this myself before trying that route. In any case having AMC/Cinemark data from keyser is already quite good.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Remember, I only cover Thr previews I feel are going to hit more than 7m, so there's plenty of films that I don't as well as days I wouldn't be looking at.

 

Also kinda thinking of maybe we might split this up between posters (not exactly volunteering, BTW).  Though I am more than a little worried that Fandango might view multiple people scraping as something akin to a DDoS, so I'm a little wary here.

Not too well for sure. I dont know why AMC is putting Frozen shows behind a redirection. Even through browser at times I get a captcha and even a page where I have to select multiple things(like all traffic signals or bikes). So I am not convinced this is sustainable. But let us make hay while the sun shines.

 

I was kidding about Sacremento. I am thinking picking top 20 cities for BO and 10 theaters each per city. But not AMC/Cinemark for now. That should give very good perspective into the movies BO.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Selenium won't look like a DDoS as it's too slow (literally just an automated browser) to cause huge strain on the server. But I'm going to try to resolve this myself before trying that route. In any case having AMC/Cinemark data from keyser is already quite good.

That is great. But can Selenium handle a captcha page if it comes to it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

That is great. But can Selenium handle a captcha page if it comes to it.

Depends on what the captcha is. If it's the same every time then yes.

[keysersoze123]

Midway Previews

AMC Prev - 14597/75386 $204838 (540 shows)
Cin Prev - 8417/72163 $92193 (582 shows)

 

Terrific increase at Cinemark and not so good at AMC. So its not playing well in NYC. Still its just over 1/3rd of Dark Fate preview numbers and slightly under that when compared to Zombieland. Gemini Man also did insanely well at AMC big cities especially Imax/PLF. But did very badly elsewhere. Still its close to half of Gemini Man. Assuming all small chains over perform for Midway I could see this hit 1m previews. OW probable 10-12x that. So this final push might ensure double digit OW.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Depends on what the captcha is. If it's the same every time then yes.

I think google captcha 2 is ok. its just selecting a check box and you can proceed to next page. the other one where you are forced to select specfic parts of image is impossible to automate. But you may not come to that with Selenium anyway.

 

I have a feeling you will be the last man standing when it comes to macro tracking. So this fandango one would be really great.

 

[keysersoze123]

Doctor Sleep Previews

AMC  - 24179/144214 345520.08 (783 shows)
Cin  - 16670/150515 $192489 (893 shows)

 

Very strong finish. I think 1.5m previews should happen and then there is early access screenings. I feel 2m+ including that should happen. SInce I dont know how wide that was, its hard to predict that number. I will update this post when I get PS for OD. May be this could do slightly better than what I thought this afternoon. All the movies this weekend are tough to predict just with PS.

 

Doctor Sleep OD

AMC OD - 16976/361134 247643.18 ( 1931 shows )
Cin OD - 9925/299971 $106487 (1742 shows)

 

Last week Dark Fate had 61K PS between 2 chains and sold only 225K in total. Insanely frontloaded. I think Doctor Sleep should do better. I am hoping at least 6x and 150K finish or more. I think 6m OD(without previews) and low 20's OW can happen conservatively Let us see if it can over perform and hit 25m OW.

 

This is the only opener I am gonna track OD.

Edited November 8, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Jonwo]

I wonder if Doctor Sleep’s long runtime is hurting it to an extent? 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/6/2019 at 9:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 (T-15)

Cin previews - 25034/381687 $307960 2381 shows (+3054)
Cin D1 -  37383/735671 $399435 4342 shows (+5089)
Cin D2 - 45321/733483 $432392 4355 shows (+6367)
Cin D3 - 23143/730556 $213233 4311 shows (+3110)

Overall - +17621

 

WOW. That is crazy good. PS for OD and D2 are on steroids. Based on these numbers breakout is confirmed. its numbers on Thanksgiving/BF confirms it will have a good 2nd weekend. Thanksgiving is 45% of Opening Sunday and Black Friday is almost matching that despite fewer shows.

 

I wish AMC also would start to work and we get complete picture. But Floor would be like 125m. But it could be lot higher once AMC is on board.

 

 

Frozen 2 (T-14)

Cin Prev - 27298/381744 $335807 2380 shows +2234
Cin OD -  41976/733937 $448710 4330 shows +4593
Cin D2 - 50463/732976 $482997 4350 shows +5142
Cin D3 - 26363/729837 $242939 4306 shows +3220

Overall +15189

 

WOW. its on tear at Cinemark for sure. Weird why its so weak at AMC. Still at just 1500 shows and sadly I am not able to pull the data. I had thought Cinemark would slow down faster than what I am seeing. This is really crazy strong.  Barely dropping 13% from yesterday.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	204	12414	24000	11586	48.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

102

 

T-42 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-42	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	430.86		22	2570		0/81	8044/10614	24.21%		89.19m
TROS (adj)	n/a		100	11073		2/204	11665/22738	48.70%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Estimated TROS Gross So Far:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	65.26		15159		9893		25.45m
DP2	121.64		8133		9893		22.63m
Solo	170.89		5789		9893		24.10m
JW:FK	158.85		6228		9893		24.30m
AM&tW	214.83		4605		9893		24.71m
Venom	228.67		4493		10274		22.87m
CM	104.93		10553		11073		21.72m
EG	41.54		26655		11073		24.93m
TLK	100.87		10977		11073		23.20m
It 2	204.74		5659		11586		21.50m
AVG							23.54m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

Even though there was one less ticket sold than yesterday, this was actually a stronger day locally, IMO, as only 32 of the tickets sold today were from those new showings.  That means 70 of them were from the previous showings.

 

I dunno, folks... Maybe Star Wars is just popular.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Also, as you might note, TROS (adj) has now passed TLK for final tickets sold, locally.

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	15096	16484	1388	8.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

160

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp (LOL at this stage due to one-week difference in sale length)

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	180.59		21	747		0/70	9250/9997	7.47%		12.64m
TS4	87.43		54	1543		0/90	10764/12307	12.54%		10.49m
TLK	55.02		89	2452		0/183	17707/20159	12.16%		12.65m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		155	1349		0/116	12807/14156	9.53%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Don't let the adjustment to the T-x comp fool you, this was a great day locally.  Even more sales today than yesterday (160 vs 136).   Some of that might be calendar placement.  But most of it is just that this is a strong movie flexing its muscles.

 

Not sure what the preview number will converge on, but looking good so far is the only way to put it.

 

Unless you want to put it as "Looking great so far", that is. 👍

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12271	53600	41329	22.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

[dxmatrixdt]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12271	53600	41329	22.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

DOM COBB!!!!

[StarWarsMemer]

9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1540

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1594

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7566	54	22870	33.08%	9	182

 

Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total

So TLK sold 7587 seats. 

 

If we assume TRoS sells 75 tickets daily on average, its previews would be only 40% higher than TLK, or $3M higher than Rogue One's previews. Do movies usually sell a lot of tickets a week prior to release to skew the average higher than 75 tickets a day? 

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	1501	26878	25377	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 123

 

[dxmatrixdt]

40m - Midway

20m - Doctor Sleep

15m - Last Christmas

15m - Terminator

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Do movies usually sell a lot of tickets a week prior to release to skew the average higher than 75 tickets a day? 

Very very much so. Often times doubling their ticket sales.

 

That won't happen in the case of super-heavy pre-sale movies like Star Wars or Avenger films.  But generally speaking there is a ton of sales in the run up to release.

 

Partially due to more showtimes appearing, but also because, simply put, a lot of folks don't buy their tickets weeks in advance, even for big event films.

[Porthos]

@StarWarsMemer

 

To give a couple of examples from my tracking.

 

At T-7:

Infinity War sold      8744 tickets.

Deadpool 2 sold      3334 tickets.

Captain Marvel sold 4684 tickets

Endgame sold        19469 tickets

 

At Stop of Tracking:

Infinity War sold      13164 tickets (+4420 tickets)

Deadpool 2 sold        8133 tickets (+4799 tickets)

Captain Marvel sold 10553 tickets (+5869 tickets)

Endgame sold         26655 tickets (+7186 tickets)

 

I didn't include Solo for a reason, and that's coz it flopped in the lead up to release:

 

T-7:

Solo sold 3747 tickets

 

At Stop of Tracking:

Solo sold 5789 tickets (+2042 tickets)

 

But even then, it still sold more on a per-day basis than it had been.  Just not nearly as much as it was supposed to.

 

====

 

Other films show similar patterns.

 

Doesn't mean TROS is guaranteed to have a final strong week of sales.  Solo exists as an example, after all.  But, usually speaking, yes films do sell a TON of tickets in the last week of pre-sales, for the reasons I gave in my last post.