The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric is Quiet]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	3,361	21,428	15.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,012

 

Comp

14.938x of Abominable (9.71M)

10.185x of Addams Family (12.73M)

4.822x of Maleficent (11.09M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.362x of Lion King (8.33M)

 

That Maleficent drop seems bad, but this is more or less a course-correction for a film that was on a lower playing field and had more walk-ups. And all in all, things do point to the 9-10M other people are pointing towards. I do hope it can get above 10M, but that's not a dealbreaker if other people's post Thursday data is to be believed.

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or fewer seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	159	13296	18565	5269	28.38%

 

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	755

 

Final Adjusted Comp

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	5:00-5:30	129.38		809	3900		0/117	9953/13853	28.15%		9.05m
TS4	4:30-5:30	75.25		1228	6706		0/156	10656/17362	38.62%		9.03m
TLK	4:30-5:45	45.97		1800	10977		7/289	17020/27997	39.21%		10.57m
Frozen 2 (adj)	5:00-5:30	n/a		688	5046		1/159	11472/6518	30.55%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block

 

========

 

For the record, 1 showing for a total of 3 tickets sold was manually adjusted for showings with six seats or fewer left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	13299	18565	5266	28.31%

 

-----

 

Some thoughts next post

[Porthos]

So I gots two comps that say 9m almost exactly and one comp that says 10.5m.  On the other hand, I had insane difficulty counting TLK with its massive showtimes (one of the reasons I decided to try to figure out how to search the HTML source code).

 

I do have other comps, but they're hella flawed for one reason or another. 

 

Pika Pika comps to 9.3m

Hobbs comps to 9.5m

KotM comps to 11m (!!!)

and finally

JW2 comps to 10.75m

 

Got to think my TLK comp is flawed for a few reasons, and all of the other unofficial comps I mentioned above are flawed (4pm previews, no 3D or PLF, more adult skewing, et etc).  Think I'll go with 9.25m +/- .3m.  Just don't see a surge that makes me think 10m is in fact in play.  Could be wrong though.

 

Find out soon enuf.

[JB33]

I know Frozen II will do amazing business regardless, but I am pretty surprised most signs are pointing to below $10M in previews. Sales are really good throughout the whole weekend so obviously the multi is going to be really strong though.

[Porthos]

Checking my average of my three Disney family movie comps (which all started at 6pm), I see that it's 9.55m, which is right at the upper bound of my call.  Tempted to change it to 9.5m on nothing more than gut instinct.  But I do think it could be only 9m, so I'll leave the range as-is. 

[JB33]

Hey @Porthos

 

Would NOW be a good time to ask you your thoughts on the multi?

 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Hey @Porthos

 

Would NOW be a good time to ask you your thoughts on the multi?

 

 

 

Spoiler

Also...

 

 

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

  Hide contents

Also...

 

 

In all seriousness (and this is probably not news to you or any of the other regular trackers in this thread), I'm having a lot of trouble finding a comp for this as far as multis go. Someone made a really good point earlier that no non-summer animation has ever opened over $70M, which never really occurred to me even if plain to see. This really is kind of uncharted territory. What muddies the waters even more is this is a Friday opener, whereas Disney has customarily opened their Thanksgiving animation films on Wednesday for awhile now.

 

14 is the multi I've seen thrown around a few times, which would result in a $129.5M OW based on $9.25M previews. Can't help but think the weekend can go higher than that based on F/S/S presales.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

In all seriousness (and this is probably not news to you or any of the other regular trackers in this thread), I'm having a lot of trouble finding a comp for this as far as multis go. Someone made a really good point earlier that no non-summer animation has ever opened over $70M, which never really occurred to me even if plain to see. This really is kind of uncharted territory. What muddies the waters even more is this is a Friday opener, whereas Disney has customarily opened their Thanksgiving animation films on Wednesday for awhile now.

 

14 is the multi I've seen thrown around a few times, which would result in a $129.5M OW based on $9.25M previews. Can't help but think the weekend can go higher than that based on F/S/S presales.

130 is possible, so is 160 but it just depends on how PS goes in the late hours today and all of tomorrow. OD and Saturday sales need to pop and not stall like Thursday did if it's going to go for huge numbers. Now, perhaps this is just going to be a PS-heavy film and then we get to 130 million. Or maybe Thursday was hurt by being a schoolday and we get great late sales for the weekend. Either way it's a big success with how well the next week is looking to go.

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL UPDATE) [4:45pm - 6:00pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	162	6460	36005	29545	17.94%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day: 2

Total Shows Added Since Mid-Day: 1

Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day: 153

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day: 1358

 

Final Comps:

	%	Time	Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Joker	76.71	2:15-3:50	1359	8421		1/230	41761/50182	16.78%		10.20m
Maleficent	256.76	6:35-7:00	707	2516		1/83	17449/19965	12.60%		5.91m
Abominable	1022.15	5:20-5:45	240	632		0/79	13268/13900	4.55%		6.64m

 

===

 

While the Joker comp ticked up a bit, the other two comps went further down. I'm gonna go with $8M +/- $1M for the preview number.

[JB33]

25 minutes ago, Menor said:

130 is possible, so is 160 but it just depends on how PS goes in the late hours today and all of tomorrow. OD and Saturday sales need to pop and not stall like Thursday did if it's going to go for huge numbers. Now, perhaps this is just going to be a PS-heavy film and then we get to 130 million. Or maybe Thursday was hurt by being a schoolday and we get great late sales for the weekend. Either way it's a big success with how well the next week is looking to go.

Yeah was just going to say that the hold next weekend will undoubtedly be really strong, compensating for the OW if in fact it's depressed in any way (which it very well could be because of the luxury many folks will have of seeing it during the week or following weekend).

[TalismanRing]

Recent non summer/ non Wed Thanksgiving animation releases

 

2019-02-22 Dragon 3    Friday    3.00 / 17.4 /55.0/ 18.3x From 6pm
2019-02-08 Lego Movie 2 Friday    2.10 / 8.5/ 34.1/ 16.2x    From 4pm.
2016-11-04 Trolls    Friday    0.90 /12.4/ 46.6/ 51.8x    From 5pm
2016-03-04 Zootopia    Friday    1.70/ 19.5/ 75.1/ 44.2x
2014-11-07 Big Hero 6    Friday    1.40 / 15.8/ 56.2/ 40.2x
2014-02-07 Lego Movie    Friday    0.40/ 17.1/ 69.1/ 172.6x

 

Obviously no preview numbers are  near what Frozen II will get and it's a sequel so it will be on the lower range.  But it's not a stretch to say it could still do a 15x+ multi

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Recent non summer/ non Wed Thanksgiving animation releases

 

2019-02-22 Dragon 3    Friday    3.00 / 17.4 /55.0/ 18.3x From 6pm
2019-02-08 Lego Movie 2 Friday    2.10 / 8.5/ 34.1/ 16.2x    From 4pm.
2016-11-04 Trolls    Friday    0.90 /12.4/ 46.6/ 51.8x    From 5pm
2016-03-04 Zootopia    Friday    1.70/ 19.5/ 75.1/ 44.2x
2014-11-07 Big Hero 6    Friday    1.40 / 15.8/ 56.2/ 40.2x
2014-02-07 Lego Movie    Friday    0.40/ 17.1/ 69.1/ 172.6x

 

Obviously no preview numbers are  near what Frozen II will get and it's a sequel so it will be on the lower range.  But it's not a stretch to say it could still do a 15x+ multi

x172, lock it.
 

No but seriously, these are suuuuper useful. I am thinking 9.5x16 maybe.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Inceptionzq]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

2014-02-07 Lego Movie    Friday    0.40/ 17.1/ 69.1/ 172.6x

Obviously the best comp. 1.7B OW incoming 

[narniadis]

18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Recent non summer/ non Wed Thanksgiving animation releases

 

2019-02-22 Dragon 3    Friday    3.00 / 17.4 /55.0/ 18.3x From 6pm
2019-02-08 Lego Movie 2 Friday    2.10 / 8.5/ 34.1/ 16.2x    From 4pm.
2016-11-04 Trolls    Friday    0.90 /12.4/ 46.6/ 51.8x    From 5pm
2016-03-04 Zootopia    Friday    1.70/ 19.5/ 75.1/ 44.2x
2014-11-07 Big Hero 6    Friday    1.40 / 15.8/ 56.2/ 40.2x
2014-02-07 Lego Movie    Friday    0.40/ 17.1/ 69.1/ 172.6x

 

Obviously no preview numbers are  near what Frozen II will get and it's a sequel so it will be on the lower range.  But it's not a stretch to say it could still do a 15x+ multi

Sadly for many reasons but chiefly the fact of Frozen being a sequel, the only ones that comp are Lego 2 and Dragon 3. 

That being said, it still shows that 15+ is quite possible. Flip side is that female skewing tends to mess with multipliers. 

[JB33]

I wonder if it was the sheer size of this movie that made Disney break with tradition and release it over the pre-Thanksgiving weekend, rather than midweek like they usually do with their Thanksgiving animations. Maybe they wanted the headlines that come with a big opening weekend.

 

I also wonder what kind of an opening day this could have had if it was released on Wednesday the 27th.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Sadly for many reasons but chiefly the fact of Frozen being a sequel, the only ones that comp are Lego 2 and Dragon 3. 

That being said, it still shows that 15+ is quite possible. Flip side is that female skewing tends to mess with multipliers. 

It's female skewing but most animation is. More importantly it's family skewing so it's still going to be back loaded.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Caveat being that bigger previews will make the big multi harder

[TalismanRing]

52 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I wonder if it was the sheer size of this movie that made Disney break with tradition and release it over the pre-Thanksgiving weekend, rather than midweek like they usually do with their Thanksgiving animations. Maybe they wanted the headlines that come with a big opening weekend.

 

I also wonder what kind of an opening day this could have had if it was released on Wednesday the 27th.

That and they wanted that nice Thanksgiving drop.  Releasing a week before just extends the holiday money.  It might make less on the end with X-Mas but probably not enough to offset having 5+ more days right b/4 Thanksgiving.

Edited November 22, 2019 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Caveat being that bigger previews will make the big multi harder

Sure but B&B had a much bigger preview with $16.3m and still did a near 10.7x.  If this does $9m that's 45% lower. Having a multi 40% higher is again not out of bounds.