The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos i could really use F9, Captain Marvel and Black Widow Sacramento graph. No adjustment just raw data graph to see trend.

 

Yeah, just forgot about it until yesterday.  I'll get it up sometime today. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

F9 is currently at 130887 tickets sold, which doesn't include same-day added shows. AQP2 finished with 205k at MTC2. Since F9 is overperforming at MTC2 I would adjust the comp down by a little. So if it reaches 260k something like 17.5. To go for the 20 range it would need something like 300k which is tough. 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

F9 is currently at 130887 tickets sold, which doesn't include same-day added shows. AQP2 finished with 205k at MTC2. Since F9 is overperforming at MTC2 I would adjust the comp down by a little. So if it reaches 260k something like 17.5. To go for the 20 range it would need something like 300k which is tough. 

so the ow range is 50-70 ?

[keysersoze123]

At MTC1 F9 is at 197395/1106866 2321514.00 (6345 shows). Walkups rate is around 10K per hour in the morning. It should ramp up. Think 4m is possible in tracked shows at MTC1. Hopefully the ratio is not as high as what we saw for previews. Probably 17-18m friday(MINUS PREVIEWS). But I could be off. 

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so the ow range is 50-70 ?

17.5 true Friday probably 56-59 OW, 19.5 gives more like 62-66.    
 

Overall it looks like the 55-65 range we’ve been targeting for weeks should turn out right on the money.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/24/2021 at 1:54 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

First time posting tracking!  A few notes - sales are for previews showtimes only; pulled from Fandango; Phoenix sales exclude Harkins and Alamo theaters; Raleigh excludes Marquee Cinemas. 

 

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-14	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	633	44	6.51%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	753	17	8.69%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	763	44	13.92%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,149	105	9.00%
F9: The Fast Saga	T-0	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	853	283	10.26%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	962	239	11.32%
		Raleigh	8	44	4,882	1,242	354	25.44%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	149	21,692	3,057	876	14.09%
The Boss Baby 2	T-7	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	10	6	0.37%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	3	1	0.12%
		Raleigh	6	18	1,654	20	0	1.21%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			17	63	6,948	33	7	0.47%
The Forever Purge	T-7	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	4	4	0.20%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	4	2	0.34%
		Raleigh	6	10	1,082	4	2	0.37%
The Forever Purge Total			16	32	4,228	12	8	0.28%
Grand Total			22	396	56,742	5,251	996	9.25%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-13	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	667	34	6.86%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	797	44	9.19%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	828	65	15.11%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,292	143	9.60%
The Boss Baby 2	T-6	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	16	6	0.58%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	7	4	0.27%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	16	-4	0.91%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	39	6	0.55%
The Forever Purge	T-6	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	4	0	0.20%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	4	0	0.34%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,262	6	2	0.48%
The Forever Purge Total			17	34	4,408	14	2	0.32%
Grand Total			20	251	35,328	2,345	151	6.64%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-13 

Jacksonvile - 184 (3.625x)

Phoenix - 236 (3.377x)

Raleigh - 220 (3.763x)

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

In the run that just finished it was at 154988. This started about 2.5 hours ago and just finished. 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

In the run that just finished it was at 154988. This started about 2.5 hours ago and just finished. 

how high can this one go ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

32 minutes ago, john2000 said:

how high can this one go ?

Idk what the trend will be like on Friday, since there are shows starting from the morning unlike Thursday. If it does go like Thursday it would finish at about ~300k which would be perhaps a 20 million True Friday. 

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

Idk what the trend will be like on Friday, since there are shows starting from the morning unlike Thursday. If it does go like Thursday it would finish at about ~300k which would be perhaps a 20 million True Friday. 

thank you my friend, i hope you dont mind me asking questions 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

thank you my friend, i hope you dont mind me asking questions 

Yeah no problem.

 

Looking at the trend 20+ True Friday could be in play but I need another run to get any sort of idea about the pace. If it can be at say 190-200k when the next run finishes, we may be in good shape. 

[keysersoze123]

Its pace up almost to 20K per day. But avg ticket price is just $11. Still think 4m in tracked locations at MTC1. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

Yeah no problem.

 

Looking at the trend 20+ True Friday could be in play but I need another run to get any sort of idea about the pace. If it can be at say 190-200k when the next run finishes, we may be in good shape. 

189886 in the run that finished just now. My guess will be in the range of 19 million True Friday for now. 

 

Edit: I made the wrong time comparison. But the numbers I'm getting from the revised comp seem a bit too good to be true...I'm gonna wait until the next update to say anything. 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

Took me a while to play with this a bit to get it to look even barely presentable.  First off, I cut off the first day of sales AND the last four days of sales.  Otherwise the chart would be completely unreadable and darn near useless.  But if folks really want, I can try to figure something out.

 

For now though [click on all images to make them bigger]:

 

Captain Marvel:

 

Deadpool 2:  [NOTE: I did not track the first eight days of DP2!!!]

 

 

The Lion King:

 

F9 - The Fast Saga:

 

Black Widow: (so far)

 

If anyone wants to play with the data to make their own charts/look better, including first day/last days [where available], here it is under a spoiler box:

 

Spoiler

Captain Marvel
CM:	
T-58:	1498
T-57	195
T-56	160
T-55	64
T-54	98
T-53	71
T-52	62
T-51	59
T-50	74
T-49	50
T-48	37
T-47	36
T-46	43
T-45	27
T-44	57
T-43	17
T-42	22
T-41	26
T-40	19
T-39	17
T-38	9
T-37	22
T-36	21
T-35	40
T-34	18
T-33	42
T-32	76
T-31	68
T-30	53
T-29	30
T-28	52
T-27	38
T-26	32
T-25	29
T-24	23
T-23	38
T-22:	48
T-21:	51
T-20:	62
T-19:	78
T-18:	23
T-17:	41
T-16:	52
T-15:	90
T-14:	112
T-13:	133
T-12:	90
T-11:	82
T-10:	128
T-9:	168
T-8:	113
T-7:	190
T-6:	241
T-5:	237
T-4:	402
T-3:	551
T-2:	802
T-1:	1063
T-0:	2573

 

 

Deadpool 2	[missing first 8 days]
------	1712
T-21:	98
T-20:	82
T-19:	107
T-18:	83
T-17:	83
T-16:	126
T-15:	134
T-14:	177
T-13:	96
T-12:	126
T-11:	82
T-10:	101
T-9:	154
T-8:	152
T-7:	119
T-6:	230
T-5:	167
T-4:	264
T-3:	374
T-2:	725
T-1:	835
T-0:	2204

 

The Lion King	
T-24:	1150
T-23:	261
T-22:	163
T-21:	98
T-20:	79
T-19:	105
T-18:	120
T-17:	100
T-16:	149
T-15:	138
T-14:	89
T-13:	107
T-12:	133
T-11:	185
T-10:	219
T-9:	279
T-8:	330
T-7:	289
T-6:	382
T-5:	259
T-4:	490
T-3:	821
T-2:	884
T-1:	1208
T-0:	2939

 

F9	
T-23	393
T-22:	78
T-21:	78
T-20:	34
T-19:	56
T-18:	48
T-17:	91
T-16:	49
T-15:	71
T-14:	71
T-13:	48
T-12:	38
T-11:	59
T-10:	62
T-9:	81
T-8:	100
T-7:	91
T-6:	79
T-5:	113
T-4:	200
T-3:	257
T-2:	397
T-1:	439
T-0:	1508

 

The Lion King	
T-24:	1150
T-23:	261
T-22:	163
T-21:	98
T-20:	79
T-19:	105
T-18:	120
T-17:	100
T-16:	149
T-15:	138
T-14:	89
T-13:	107
T-12:	133
T-11:	185
T-10:	219
T-9:	279
T-8:	330
T-7:	289
T-6:	382
T-5:	259
T-4:	490
T-3:	821
T-2:	884
T-1:	1208
T-0:	2939

 

 

@charlie Jatinder

Edited June 25, 2021 by Porthos

[Daniel16399]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

189886 in the run that finished just now. My guess will be in the range of 19 million True Friday for now. 

 

Edit: I made the wrong time comparison. But the numbers I'm getting from the revised comp seem a bit too good to be true...I'm gonna wait until the next update to say anything. 

 

Thank you for your updates!

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

189886 in the run that finished just now. My guess will be in the range of 19 million True Friday for now. 

 

Edit: I made the wrong time comparison. But the numbers I'm getting from the revised comp seem a bit too good to be true...I'm gonna wait until the next update to say anything. 

As I suspected it went slower than the Thursday model might have suggested, so good thing I didn't say a number in that post. 227,070 as of about 20 minutes ago. Expecting 18-19 million final total depending on how MTC-heavy it is. 

[druv10]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

As I suspected it went slower than the Thursday model might have suggested, so good thing I didn't say a number in that post. 227,070 as of about 20 minutes ago. Expecting 18-19 million final total depending on how MTC-heavy it is. 

Thanks, as always. Great thing, these data points will help with BW projections.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, druv10 said:

Thanks, as always. Great thing, these data points will help with BW projections.

Yeah that was my goal. If I do this for a few big openers then I will have a good sense of the usual sales pattern each day. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @Porthos for raw data.

 

 

F9 had sudden late boom which BW might not have but seeing CM, the boom started a few days earlier, so may be it will have the big growth eventually.

[keysersoze123]

FYI at 7PM its at 354605/1119909 4005463.00 (6500 shows) at MTC1 and so it will make around 4.25m at tracked theaters. Yesterday the MTC ratio was very high but hopefully it goes down. Probably late teens as @Menor says.