The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[CJohn]

H&S OW is the target or are the 70M possible?

[Cmasterclay]

I'm going with $69m OW for Fast 9 because that number sounds nice

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, Menor said:

Even with AQP2 over performing in Sacramento it still seems like F9 is massively underperforming there for whatever reason. 

Sacramento is overperforming no? I mean its already over Adj H&S Final while our nationwide # is $4M.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento is overperforming no? I mean its already over Adj H&S Final while our nationwide # is $4M.

Yeah, I misread and thought those were T-1 numbers. You are right.

[titanic2187]

Last week the holdover made 45m. Since last week father day gain wasn't really that impressive, this should not translate to a big drop this week, aided by the lifting of social distancing seating, the actual lose of screen should be moderate. So we can expect a 30m from holdovers, if F9 somehow managed to hit 70m, along with other small releases, this could be the first week since Mar 06 to hit 100m.    

[Tinalera]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	168	17632	20531	2899	14.12%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Lifted	1
Total Showings Added Today	25*
Total Seats Added Today	2351
Total Seats Sold Today	439

* Includes two showings from non-reserved seating theaters

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	126.49		480	2239		21/118	2454/4693	47.71%		6.07m
F9 (adj)	---		433	2832		0/168	17579/20411	13.87%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

 

105% AQP II adj = 6.4m

 

Did slightly outpace H&S's T-1 pace I think (eyeballing an adjustment for H&S puts it at around 400 tickets sold) which could mean that F9 does something similar tomorrow that H&S did on its Opening Night.  But maybe we just have a double whammy of AQP II over-performing locally and F9 underperforming.  I'll know more once I get some comps that I can officially adjust tomorrow.  Maybe add John Wick 3??

 

(the biggest wildcard is how much of the US/Canada re-opened/had caps lifted relative to Sacramento a month ago)

A small update RE Ontario at least-our vaccinations and decreasing infection is doing well enough that Ontario will enter phase 2 on June 30, two days earlier than the original July 2. Theatres are in the Phase 3 which, provided things don't go south, would be opening July 21-its a 21 day window and because of the two days earlier, what was July 23 would now be July 21. So hopefully we in Ontario are a month away from finally getting theatres open-and no doubt those will have distancing and such in place, but at least its a start)

[Cmasterclay]

Just checked near me - large format showings are all sold out around me (Dolby and IMAX) but regular showings more....eh. But there's alot of showtimes and at the theaters with only a couple of showtimes, the 7/8 pm shows are relatively close to selling out. It's doing good here - better in large formats than any in the franchise, but worse in regular as of now. 

[Dragon]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm going with $69m OW for Fast 9 because that number sounds nice

I'm thinking 70 million. Who knows with covid lol

[Menor the Destroyer]

Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour and a half. 

Edited June 24, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour. 

In case you are doing hourly/multiple updates a day, I suggest you make a sheet for future reference.

Edited June 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In case you are doing hourly/multiple updates a day, I suggest you make a sheet for future reference.

Yeah I have one. I was a bit overzealous with the hour comment though. It was about an hour and a half. 

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour and a half. 

How does this compare to AQP2 and Hobbs/Shaw? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

How does this compare to AQP2 and Hobbs/Shaw? 

Matched AQP2 final number at MTC2. Don't know about Hobbs and Shaw. 

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Menor said:

Matched AQP2 final number at MTC2. Don't know about Hobbs and Shaw. 

Interesting. Please pardon my ignorance - been awhile. Do we expect that gap to widen significantly over the next five hours? Or are most of the tickets already bought?

[CJohn]

Will Vin Diesel save us or not? What are we looking at? Somebody give me some concrete answers pleaseeeeeeeeee.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Interesting. Please pardon my ignorance - been awhile. Do we expect that gap to widen significantly over the next five hours? Or are most of the tickets already bought?

The gap should increase quite a bit. This is the fastest period for sales. 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

The gap should increase quite a bit. This is the fastest period for sales. 

Nice. That could put 8 million previews very much in play.

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah I have one. I was a bit overzealous with the hour comment though. It was about an hour and a half. 

Hey men or. What did Godzilla vs Kong do OW ?

Gd Afternoon all.😎

 

 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Will Vin Diesel save us or not? What are we looking at? Somebody give me some concrete answers pleaseeeeeeeeee.

It's blowing up near me with shows for tonight and tomorrow on track to sell out. Thinking $70M+ for the weekend is more likely than not.

[katnisscinnaplex]

First time posting tracking!  A few notes - sales are for previews showtimes only; pulled from Fandango; Phoenix sales exclude Harkins and Alamo theaters; Raleigh excludes Marquee Cinemas. 

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-14	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	633	44	6.51%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	753	17	8.69%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	763	44	13.92%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,149	105	9.00%
F9: The Fast Saga	T-0	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	853	283	10.26%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	962	239	11.32%
		Raleigh	8	44	4,882	1,242	354	25.44%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	149	21,692	3,057	876	14.09%
The Boss Baby 2	T-7	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	10	6	0.37%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	3	1	0.12%
		Raleigh	6	18	1,654	20	0	1.21%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			17	63	6,948	33	7	0.47%
The Forever Purge	T-7	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	4	4	0.20%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	4	2	0.34%
		Raleigh	6	10	1,082	4	2	0.37%
The Forever Purge Total			16	32	4,228	12	8	0.28%
Grand Total			22	396	56,742	5,251	996	9.25%