The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2947 (+73)

Tickets Sold: 47557/448596 (+8831)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5023

Tickets Sold: 31595/23261 (+8334)

 

Saturday:

Showtimes: 5145

Tickets Sold: 21421/804632

 

Sunday:

Showtimes: 4711

Tickets Sold: 9791/732943

 

This is from last night. I was focused on F9 and then was busy for a couple of days, so this is about five days of data. 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Does anyone know where I can find a list of preview numbers for movies? BOM doesn't have preview results and so I'm having to manually Google each movie to find what their preview/midnight was.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Does anyone know where I can find a list of preview numbers for movies? BOM doesn't have preview results and so I'm having to manually Google each movie to find what their preview/midnight was.

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html
 

the numbers also shows the previews in their daily gross chart for most movies now, which is a nice quality of life change but not exactly what you’re looking for.

[Eric the Ape]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Before I post today's numbers, I wanted to get some opinions.   There are two showings that have been marked as Sold Out since I started pulling BW sales.  Because of the social distancing rules that were in effect at that time, I had been using an approximation of 65% of auditorium capacity as tickets sold.  As of this morning, both of these showings are available and appear to have no tickets sold.  I feel like I should back out the numbers from previous posts, but I didn't want it to look shady.  Is this something that people have seen in the past?  How do others handle sell-outs?

So with sellouts, I often take them at a face value and just accept them as is, with noting to people a caveat that this sellout could not totally be legit. In an instance where the sellout disappears and the numbers drop like a rock, I just keep all my previous data as is. It can be annoying and a bit inaccurate, but data like this typically doesn't matter until the last day of presales anyways so you just gotta roll with the punches.

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @Menor.

 

Comparable number with F9

Spoiler

  

On 6/16/2021 at 12:16 AM, Menor said:

F9 MTC2 (315 theaters)

 

Previews:

Showtimes: 1854

Sold: 20004/285961

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4327

Sold: 18812/664084

 

 

2.37x Previews

1.68x Friday

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks @Menor.

 

Comparable number with F9

  Hide contents

  

 

 

2.37x Previews

1.68x Friday

This looks like a pretty solid ratio given F9’s performance. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

This looks like a pretty solid ratio given F9’s performance. 

But F9 had 3x PSm which might be a lot for MCU film. I will be thinking of 2-2.25x PSm.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

This looks like a pretty solid ratio given F9’s performance. 

The more important thing is the pace ratio I think. Absolute numbers are still a small fraction of the final. From the 5-day number (which I assume the last couple of days would have been significantly over the first couple) it seems like the pace ratio is also solid but have to wait and see. 

[charlie Jatinder]

F9 wasn't as backloaded in pre-sales as I feared, so BW has scope to maintain that lead, considering it is selling at higher daily pace than CM was.

[WrathOfHan]

Zola previews tonight:

 

6:00: 4/67

8:40: 7/67

Total: 11/134

 

Comps:

 

34% of Cruella Previews (475k)

52% of Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard Previews (425k)

 

This seems fine. A24 hasn't released a theater count for Zola yet, but I'm assuming it's in the Eighth Grade/Disaster Artist/Mid-90s range of 1-1.2k rather than 2k+ like their horror titles and Uncut Gems. Using the PTA grosses instead of total grosses for these comps, this would be 275-300k. I'll probably check back closer to showtime to see if walkups are going well. I'm only expecting 3-4M for the 5 day, but some cities will likely over perform.

 

Thursday previews:

 

The Boss Baby: Family Business:

4:00: 8/107

6:45: 3/107

Total: 11/214

 

The Forever Purge:

7:00: 6/107

9:00: 0/77

Total: 6/184

 

Boss Baby is already ahead of Spirit Untamed and 34% of Cruella's final total (475k). Forever Purge has incredibly poor sales compared to the last three major horror films. Both of these films are walkup-friendly, so we'll see how they are tomorrow.

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But F9 had 3x PSm which might be a lot for MCU film. I will be thinking of 2-2.25x PSm.

 

F9 had an audience diversity breakdown which is less likely to prebuy vs normal MCU (aka - normal MCU never has Hispanics as their #1 % audience)...so I think you have to take that into account...

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

F9 had an audience diversity breakdown which is less likely to prebuy vs normal MCU (aka - normal MCU never has Hispanics as their #1 % audience)...so I think you have to take that into account...

 

Yep and also MCU has much bigger fanbase, not just racial demo. Even Hispanic MCU fan is more likely to prebuy it than F9 audience.

[Legion Again]

Obviously True Fri PSm will be lower, but so will Th PSm (that is to say, final preview sales divided by Th PS on beginning Th). If they’re lower by a similar %, the ratio is still useful. 
 

Now, if Fri PSm for MCU tend to fall short of FF FRI PSm by more than their Th PSm, we would get a lower true fri than that comparison suggests — which is what I expect, actually. 168/237 is 71%. F9 TFri was some 3.2x Th, 71% of that would be 2.25x Th. But still expecting more like 1.8x.    

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/28/2021 at 9:51 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-10	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	759	43	7.81%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	910	27	10.50%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	917	33	16.73%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,586	103	10.83%
The Boss Baby 2	T-3	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	38	11	1.39%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	19	5	0.74%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	43	11	2.45%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	100	27	1.42%
The Forever Purge	T-3	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	15	1	0.76%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	25	10	2.14%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,353	25	3	1.85%
The Forever Purge Total			17	35	4,499	65	14	1.44%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-9	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	786	27	8.08%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,676	682	-228	7.86%
		Raleigh	7	46	5,717	984	67	17.21%
Black Widow Total			19	154	24,116	2,452	-134	10.17%
The Boss Baby 2	T-2	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	58	20	2.12%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	28	9	1.09%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	59	16	3.37%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	145	45	2.06%
The Forever Purge	T-2	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	24	9	1.21%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	32	7	2.74%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,353	46	21	3.40%
The Forever Purge Total			17	35	4,499	102	37	2.27%

 

Note: two previously sold out shows for BW in Phoenix are now showing with 0 seats sold.

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-9

Jacksonville - 227 (3.463x)

Phoenix - 299 (2.281x)

Raleigh - 338 (2.911x)

 

Boss Baby compared to Peter Rabbit 2

 

PR2 T-2

Jacksonville - 47

Phoenix - 30

Raleigh - 27

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Before I post today's numbers, I wanted to get some opinions.   There are two showings that have been marked as Sold Out since I started pulling BW sales.  Because of the social distancing rules that were in effect at that time, I had been using an approximation of 65% of auditorium capacity as tickets sold.  As of this morning, both of these showings are available and appear to have no tickets sold.  I feel like I should back out the numbers from previous posts, but I didn't want it to look shady.  Is this something that people have seen in the past?  How do others handle sell-outs?

 

I very very very rarely ignore a shady sellout, and only in the most exceptional of circumstances where I know with 99.9999999999% certainty that a theater has fucked up.  As for "backdating" a sale of seats?  Depends on the circumstances.  If I know with 100% certainty what each days sales "should be" (and I do mean 100% as opposed to 99.99%) I'll go back and edit my master copy list for the historical record/comps going forward.  But if I don't know with 100% certainty? Well, whatever comps that'll be made in the future will get smoothed out in the end.  If it causes a temporary spike (or dip) in a comp?  So be it.  Better than trying to play guessing games.  So I personally am a bit more flexible on that latter point. 

 

 

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Another unrelated question: would it be helpful to have these broken down further by format?

 

I mean, it'd be interesting info to have (though not many folks will comment on it).  But at the same time: Beware feature creep. Might not seem like a big deal now, but if you start to track/report on too many things, really easy to burn yourself out, especially as showtimes rise.

 

I personally keep track of format on my home sheet, and even have a few places where I check percentages by format (2D/3D/PLF [both 2D and 3D]/DBOX, etc) in case I want to access it to post here/someone asks about it.  But I don't publish that info regularly as I have enough info as it is already.

 

The biggest help is in trying to figure out ATP, but it also can be of a interesting nugget to see, for example, how shares of PLFs are doing from film to film as it helps us decide whether to use a higher or lower comp.  Still, in the end, is it really worth the extra hassle to post each and every time?  Just things to keep in mind. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Zola Tuesday previews

 

Movie	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Sold	New Sales
Zola	Raleigh	6	11	19	7
Zola	Phoenix	10	18	26	0
Zola	Jacksonville	5	8	27	11

 

Fri-Sun Zola has sold 1 ticket in Jacksonville across 51 showings.  Overall I'm seeing 780 theaters listed so far on the weekend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

I very very very rarely ignore a shady sellout, and only in the most exceptional of circumstances where I know with 99.9999999999% certainty that a theater has fucked up.  As for "backdating" a sale of seats?  Depends on the circumstances.  If I know with 100% certainty what each days sales "should be" (and I do mean 100% as opposed to 99.99%) I'll go back and edit my master copy list for the historical record/comps going forward.  But if I don't know with 100% certainty? Well, whatever comps that'll be made in the future will get smoothed out in the end.  If it causes a temporary spike (or dip) in a comp?  So be it.  Better than trying to play guessing games.  So I personally am a bit more flexible on that latter point. 

 

I've been logging ticket sales by showing for the bigger releases so backing out the two showings wouldn't be difficult.  I'll likely remove the incorrect sales from my sheet so as to be more accurate for comps.

 

 

Quote

I mean, it'd be interesting info to have (though not many folks will comment on it).  But at the same time: Beware feature creep. Might not seem like a big deal now, but if you start to track/report on too many things, really easy to burn yourself out, especially as showtimes rise.

 

I personally keep track of format on my home sheet, and even have a few places where I check percentages by format (2D/3D/PLF [both 2D and 3D]/DBOX, etc) in case I want to access it to post here/someone asks about it.  But I don't publish that info regularly as I have enough info as it is already.

 

I do the same; since I'm recording each showing separately, the format is included in the data.  I agree that it may be too much data to post it each day, but maybe a weekly comparison for the big releases to see the breakdown would be nice.  I have it in a separate pivot table so it's not really any extra work.

 

Quote

The biggest help is in trying to figure out ATP, but it also can be of a interesting nugget to see, for example, how shares of PLFs are doing from film to film as it helps us decide whether to use a higher or lower comp.

 

ATP would be interesting.  I haven't delved into that territory yet.  Would that be an average of all available ticket types for all available showings, or would it need to be reported by theater?  

 

Thanks for the replies!

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/28/2021 at 1:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

410

1980

20.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

411

1939

21.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1918	73	21611	8.88%	15	116

 

F9 comp: 22.51M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

428

1980

21.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

429

1939

22.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2047	129	21379	9.57%	15	115

 

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 232

 

F9 comp: 22.96M

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

428

1980

21.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

429

1939

22.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2047	129	21379	9.57%	15	115

 

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 232

 

F9 comp: 22.96M

the comp increased................

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/28/2021 at 1:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-10 days Thursday: 2339(+67)/21439 in 14 theaters. $32,746 with $14 ATP

 

T-11 days Friday: 1626(+108)/36370 in 14 theaters. $21,951 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday: 2501(+162)/21439 in 14 theaters. $35,014 with $14 ATP

 

T-10 days Friday: 1791(+165)/36370 in 14 theaters. $24,179 with $13.50 ATP