The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

On 6/26/2021 at 11:31 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	16602	19260	2658	13.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	260.33		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		18.48

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	448.45		44	582		5/67	2315/2897	20.09%		21.5m
BW (adj)	---		88	2610		0/119	16530/19140	13.64%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	16494	19260	2766	14.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

108

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	256.11		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		18.18

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	442.35		34	614		3/67	2283/2897	21.19%		21.2m
BW (adj)	---		106	2716		0/119	16424/19140	14.19%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-11	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	716	33	7.36%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	883	41	10.18%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	884	25	16.13%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,483	99	10.40%
The Boss Baby 2	T-4	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	27	4	0.99%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	14	7	0.55%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	32	14	1.83%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	73	25	1.04%
The Forever Purge	T-4	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	14	4	0.71%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	15	7	1.28%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,353	22	15	1.63%
The Forever Purge Total			17	35	4,499	51	26	1.13%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-10	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	759	43	7.81%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	910	27	10.50%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	917	33	16.73%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,586	103	10.83%
The Boss Baby 2	T-3	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	38	11	1.39%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	19	5	0.74%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	43	11	2.45%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	100	27	1.42%
The Forever Purge	T-3	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	15	1	0.76%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	25	10	2.14%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,353	25	3	1.85%
The Forever Purge Total			17	35	4,499	65	14	1.44%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-10 

Jacksonville - 210 (3.614x)

Phoenix - 279 (3.262x)

Raleigh - 319 (2.875x)

 

Boss Baby compared to Peter Rabbit 2

 

PR2 T-3

Jacksonville - 34

Phoenix - 30

Raleigh - 23

[Tinalera]

Not surprised at f9 numbers in the slightest. Massive franchise hitting theatres as things open up with vaccs and reducing covid numbers. Be interesting to see the numbers even with the theatres with reduced counts, going to be impressive I think.

[el sid]

The Boss Baby 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): - (no showtimes so far)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 20 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 24 (3 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 58.

Comps: Dolittle (21.8M) had on Monday of its release week in the same 6 theaters (it also had no NY shows yet) 143 sold tickets for Friday.
The Call of the Wild (24.8M) had on Wednesday of its release week in the same 6 theaters 78 sold tickets for Friday.
It's just too early for me to guess anything here.

The Forever Purge, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 44 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 15 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 31 (2 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 104.

Comps: AQP II (47.5M OW) had on Monday of its release week in the same 7 theaters 747 sold tickets for its previews on Thursday.
Crawl (12.0M OW) had on Monday in 6 theaters (NY was missing) 104 sold tickets (so vs 60 here) for Thursday.
The Boy II (5.8M OW) had on Wednesday in 6 theaters (Austin was missing) 56 sold tickets (so vs 104 here) for Thursday.
This doesn't look completely bad but also not good at the moment. The next days will tell.

Edited June 28, 2021 by el sid

[LegendaryBen]

52 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Boss Baby 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): - (no showtimes so far)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 20 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 24 (3 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 58.

Comps: Dolittle (21.8M) had on Monday of its release week in the same 6 theaters (it also had no NY shows yet) 143 sold tickets for Friday.
The Call of the Wild (24.8M) had on Wednesday of its release week in the same 6 theaters 78 sold tickets for Friday.
It's just too early for me to guess anything here.

The Forever Purge, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 44 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 15 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 31 (2 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 104.

Comps: AQP II (47.5M OW) had on Monday of its release week in the same 7 theaters 747 sold tickets for its previews on Thursday.
Crawl (12.0M OW) had on Monday in 6 theaters (NY was missing) 104 sold tickets (so vs 60 here) for Thursday.
The Boy II (5.8M OW) had on Wednesday in 6 theaters (Austin was missing) 56 sold tickets (so vs 104 here) for Thursday.
This doesn't look completely bad but also not good at the moment. The next days will tell.

Thanks as usual @el sid. The two openers combined will make less than F9's 2nd weekend.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I won't even begin to tally yet but judging by my theaters, the Thursday for Black Widow will be astronomical. I genuinely think 15m is on the table. Ant-Man and the Wasp had 11.5 and I see no reason given the tracking and buzz this would be lower. 

 

I don't know what that means for the overall weekend and how frontloaded it'd be, especially factoring in Disney+ and the pandemic, but I'm feeling good about 95m+

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp- 11.5m Thursday/75m weekend

Justice League- 13m Thursday/93m weekend

Solo- 14.1 Thursday/84m weekend

Spiderman Homecoming- 15.4m Thursday/117m weekend

Guardians vol 2- 17m Thursday/146m weekend

Captain Marvel- 20.7m Thursday/153.4m weekend

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

379

1980

19.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

400

1939

20.63%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1845	72	21611	8.54%	15	116

 

F9 comp: 22.66M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

410

1980

20.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

411

1939

21.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1918	73	21611	8.88%	15	116

 

F9 comp: 22.51M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 2272(+59)/21439 in 14 theaters. $31,808 with $14 ATP

 

T-12 days Friday: 1518(+69)/36370 in 14 theaters. $20,493 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-10 days Thursday: 2339(+67)/21439 in 14 theaters. $32,746 with $14 ATP

 

T-11 days Friday: 1626(+108)/36370 in 14 theaters. $21,951 with $13.50 ATP

[el sid]

3 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thanks as usual @el sid. The two openers combined will make less than F9's 2nd weekend.

Not impossible but I looked it up and both movies (The First Purge and The Boss Baby) made in sum 67.6M OW. So it would need a very big drop of ca. 50%. Maybe the focus was on F9 and its performance and therefore the buzz for The Forever Purge is still low. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/21/2021 at 12:00 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Widow Harkins T-18 Days

 

Normal - 1044 on 149 shows ($11,621)

Cine 1 - 936 on 17 shows ($13,742)

Cine Capri - 274 on 9 shows ($3,371)

 

Total - 2254 on 175 shows ($28,734)

 

This would roughly mean $1.55M nationwide. That would mean the chain is pretty backloaded in sales. Normal are barely 5% sold.

Black Widow Harkins T-10 Days

 

Normal - 1605 on 148 shows ($17,914) +561

Cine 1 - 1144 on 18 shows ($16,723) +208

Cine Capri - 358 on 9 shows ($4,362) +84

 

Total - 3107 on 175 shows ($38,999) +853 (+38%)

 

Good growth in Normal showings. There's a still capacity to grow. Cine 1 showing have dozen shows which can grow but half dozen are almost full, so will need more shows.

 

[Eric the Ape]

The Boss Baby: Family Business Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	163	5060	3.22%

 

Comp

1.294x of Raya's Thu+Fri T-3 and Counting (3.37M)

0.323x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-3 and Counting (2.49M)

0.905x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri T-3 and Counting (2.23M)

 

Seems okay so far, though all three comps, especially the first two, had pretty radical jumps from day to day, so it's best to wait until Thursday to say anything definitive.

[Felandria]

Not hard numbers, per se, but AMC Disney Springs released their weekend showtimes.

 

Boss Baby 2 takes two of the four big auditoriums, the 500+ seater and one of the 300 seaters, while F9 retains the Dolby and the other 300 seater.

 

In addition, F9 keeps 1.5 dine in screens and one regular screen.

 

Boss Baby gets one other regular screen and two 3D showings, one in Dine In and one in regular.

 

meanwhile, Forever Purge gets one regular screen and 1.5 Dine In screens

 

So clearly Forever Purge is an afterthought.

 

Reminds me of Christmas 2005 when Universal was pushing King Kong and Munich and let The Producers wither and die.

 

Actually a little surprised Boss Baby 2 is getting pushed that strong, A month of Peacock is cheaper than a month of HBO Max or the Disney Premium rate, after all.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Felandria

[Eric the Ape]

The Forever Purge Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	66	2765	2.39%

 

Comp

0.094x of Conjuring 3 3 Days Before Release (919K)

 

I feel I can't use Spiral because it's a Black-led movie, and ultimately Conjuring is too big of a comp to really compare. But hey, gotta take what you can get for these situations

[charlie Jatinder]

So as for how to use Megaplex (tracked by @Inceptionzq) and Harkins (tracked by me). The non-MTC USA is 9-11 times these two chains for previews, being on safer side, we can assume that non-MTC USA pre-sales are around 8-9 times that of these two.

This way we can have idea as to how film is doing in smaller markets. If anyone is willing to track, there's two more small chain which we can add to portfolio. 

 

https://www.showcasecinemas.com/

https://www.santikos.com/ (Anyone from Texas. 8 theaters only, and I checked one locs, selling crazy well)
 

Spoiler

Widow previews

	T-17	T-10
A	1.01	1.36
R	0.75	1.02
C	0.49	0.67
M+H	0.06	0.07
US-R	0.47	0.62
CA	0.12	0.16
	2.89	3.90

 

Edited June 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric the Ape]

On 6/27/2021 at 10:07 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	2102	16722	12.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

1.890x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 Before Release (18.34M)

2.430x of F9 T-11 Before Release (17.25M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	2212	17320	12.77%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 598

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp

1.925x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-10 Before Release (18.68M)

2.483x of F9 T-10 Before Release (17.63M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	16494	19260	2766	14.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

108

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	256.11		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		18.18

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	442.35		34	614		3/67	2283/2897	21.19%		21.2m
BW (adj)	---		106	2716		0/119	16424/19140	14.19%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	16352	19260	2908	15.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

142

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	254.64		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		18.1m

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	437.42		38	652		4/71	2368/3020	21.59%		21.0m
BW (adj)	---		136	2852		0/119	16288/19140	14.90%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

[charlie Jatinder]

BW is currently 69% of CM in Sacramento at unadjusted comp. The daily pace from last 3 days is higher than CM.

 

Eventually adjusted comp will clear things more but if BW add as much as CM did in final 10 days, it may hit that $18M target.

 

Raw data for final 15 days

Spoiler

Time	CM	F9	TLK	BW			CM	F9	TLK	BW
15	90	71	138	108			3668	898	2363	2381
14	112	71	89	106			3780	969	2452	2487
13	133	48	107	77			3913	1017	2559	2564
12	90	38	133	94			4003	1055	2692	2658
11	82	59	185	108			4085	1114	2877	2766
10	128	62	219	142			4213	1176	3096	2908
9	168	81	279				4381	1257	3375
8	113	100	330				4494	1357	3705
7	190	91	289				4684	1448	3994
6	241	79	382				4925	1527	4376
5	237	113	259				5162	1640	4635
4	402	200	490				5564	1840	5125
3	551	257	821				6115	2097	5946
2	802	397	884				6917	2494	6830
1	1063	439	1208				7980	2933	8038
0	2573	1508	2939				10553	4441	10977

 

 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BW is currently 69% of CM in Sacramento at unadjusted comp. The daily pace from last 3 days is higher than CM.

 

Eventually adjusted comp will clear things more but if BW add as much as CM did in final 10 days, it may hit that $18M target.

 

Raw data for final 15 days

  Reveal hidden contents

Time	CM	F9	TLK	BW			CM	F9	TLK	BW
15	90	71	138	108			3668	898	2363	2381
14	112	71	89	106			3780	969	2452	2487
13	133	48	107	77			3913	1017	2559	2564
12	90	38	133	94			4003	1055	2692	2658
11	82	59	185	108			4085	1114	2877	2766
10	128	62	219	142			4213	1176	3096	2908
9	168	81	279				4381	1257	3375
8	113	100	330				4494	1357	3705
7	190	91	289				4684	1448	3994
6	241	79	382				4925	1527	4376
5	237	113	259				5162	1640	4635
4	402	200	490				5564	1840	5125
3	551	257	821				6115	2097	5946
2	802	397	884				6917	2494	6830
1	1063	439	1208				7980	2933	8038
0	2573	1508	2939				10553	4441	10977

 

 

 

I did some math last night and as of then, BW needed to sell a little more than 2x (F9 the rest of the way) to hit @Lokis Legion's 2.2x F9 target (roughly 15.6m).

 

Was slightly ahead of that pace tonight, but I don't know if it is banking enough to hold back F9's final days.

 

Have some things to do, but maybe I'll break out the math later on if I have time.

 

==

 

Also, a point.  Captain Marvel over-performed in this market, for whatever reason (I have some thoughts, but not worth going into now).  I would be a little leery of leaning on its growth curve too much.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Widow Santikos T-10 Days

 

Galaxy - 36 on 6 shows ($0.33K)

Cibolo - 140 on 6 shows ($1.71K)

Bijou - 8 on 1 show ($0.07K)

Northwest - 74 on 6 shows ($0.68K)

Mayan Palace - 97 on 6 shows ($1.03K)

Embassy - 160 on 8 shows ($1.84K)

Silverado - 27 on 6 shows ($0.36K)

Palladium - 565 on 8 shows ($8.73K)

Casa Blanca - 504 on 13 shows ($7K)

 

Total - 1611 on 60 shows ($21.75K)

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-10	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	759	43	7.81%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	910	27	10.50%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	917	33	16.73%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,586	103	10.83%

 

Before I post today's numbers, I wanted to get some opinions.   There are two showings that have been marked as Sold Out since I started pulling BW sales.  Because of the social distancing rules that were in effect at that time, I had been using an approximation of 65% of auditorium capacity as tickets sold.  As of this morning, both of these showings are available and appear to have no tickets sold.  I feel like I should back out the numbers from previous posts, but I didn't want it to look shady.  Is this something that people have seen in the past?  How do others handle sell-outs?

 

Another unrelated question: would it be helpful to have these broken down further by format?