The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

On 6/25/2021 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	16570	19134	2564	13.40%

 

Total Seats Today

77

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	260.83		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		18.52

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	468.77		31	538		5/65	2359/2897	18.57%		22.5m
BW (adj)	---		74	2522		0/117	16492/19014	13.26%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	16602	19260	2658	13.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	260.33		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		18.48

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	448.45		44	582		5/67	2315/2897	20.09%		21.5m
BW (adj)	---		88	2610		0/119	16530/19140	13.64%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Porthos

[john2000]

any update @keysersoze123 ?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/26/2021 at 7:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-12	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	683	16	7.02%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	842	45	9.71%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	859	31	15.67%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,384	92	9.99%
The Boss Baby 2	T-5	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	23	7	0.84%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	7	0	0.27%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	18	2	1.03%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	48	9	0.68%
The Forever Purge	T-5	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	10	6	0.51%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	8	4	0.68%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,262	7	1	0.55%
The Forever Purge Total			17	34	4,408	25	11	0.57%

 

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-11	Jacksonville	6	57	9,723	716	33	7.36%
		Phoenix	6	51	8,670	883	41	10.18%
		Raleigh	7	44	5,481	884	25	16.13%
Black Widow Total			19	152	23,874	2,483	99	10.40%
The Boss Baby 2	T-4	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	27	4	0.99%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	14	7	0.55%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,752	32	14	1.83%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,046	73	25	1.04%
The Forever Purge	T-4	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	14	4	0.71%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,168	15	7	1.28%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,353	22	15	1.63%
The Forever Purge Total			17	35	4,499	51	26	1.13%

 

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-11 

Jacksonville - 197 (3.635x)

Phoenix - 265 (3.332x)

Raleigh - 283 (3.124x)

 

Boss Baby compared to Peter Rabbit 2

 

PR2 T-4

Jacksonville - 30

Phoenix - 27

Raleigh - 11

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

365

1980

18.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

390

1939

20.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1773	130	21611	8.20%	15	116

 

F9 comp: 22.89M

 

Decided to lob off the final count comps, especially with previews seemingly becoming more MTC heavy than before. And the PWPs were a non-factor for F9, at least for previews, so I won't worry about tracking those anymore. Might bring in a regular Lion King comp later on, but again, pre-pandemic vs now could be too different. 

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

379

1980

19.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

400

1939

20.63%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1845	72	21611	8.54%	15	116

 

F9 comp: 22.66M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-12 days Thursday: 2213(+183)/21439 in 14 theaters. $30,982 with $14 ATP

 

T-13 days Friday: 1449(+214)/36370 in 14 theaters. $19,562 with $13.50 ATP

 

Keep in mind, this is 2 days of data.

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-11 days Thursday: 2272(+59)/21439 in 14 theaters. $31,808 with $14 ATP

 

T-12 days Friday: 1518(+69)/36370 in 14 theaters. $20,493 with $13.50 ATP

[poweranimals]

So I'm starting to think $100m OW might not be out of the question after all. Although, PA will probably keep that from happening. I'm thinking $90m but anything is possible I guess.

Edited June 27, 2021 by poweranimals

[Legion Again]

I’d want to see previews at least 2.2x F9 to feel happy about hitting it. Not impossible but we’ll need some ramp up in the next 10 days since it can’t match the % increase of the final few.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I’d want to see previews at least 2.2x F9 to feel happy about hitting it. Not impossible but we’ll need some ramp up in the next 10 days since it can’t match the % increase of the final few.

That's down from your initial target of 17.5m.  F9's Fri/Sat making you feel better about how BW will do, especially given Marvel's historical strength when it comes to IMs? 

[HouseOfTheSun]

I wouldn’t underestimate BW being the first movie that people are actually buzzing about in regards to going to theaters around the time it releases which could help it hit 100m

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's down from your initial target of 17.5m.  F9's Fri/Sat making you feel better about how BW will do, especially given Marvel's historical strength when it comes to IMs? 

Yeah, F9 doing over 3x previews for true Fri made me bump up expectations for BW tru fri a bit. Thinking more like 1.7-1.8x rather than 1.5ish-1.6ish

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

BW being the first movie that people are actually buzzing about in regards to going to theaters around the time it releases

AQP 2 and F9 already had people buzzing about going to the theaters lol.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

AQP 2 and F9 already had people buzzing about going to the theaters lol.

Hardly. AQP2 maybe but F9 hasn’t really driven much discussion. The first Marvel movie in 2 years will be significantly higher. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Hardly. AQP2 maybe but F9 hasn’t really driven much discussion. The first Marvel movie in 2 years will be significantly higher. 

 

F9 did have the enormous weekly "see each fast movie for free" campaign at the big chains for the last 2 months...I'm gonna say that caused discussion, if not online, definitely in "person to person" convos...

Edited June 27, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Eric the IF]

 

Yeah BW's not hitting 100M

[Legion Again]

I’ll put you down as OUT then

[lorddemaxus]

22 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Hardly. AQP2 maybe but F9 hasn’t really driven much discussion. The first Marvel movie in 2 years will be significantly higher. 

I thought F9 drove way more of that discussion than AQP2 in regards to that, espescially considering that it is the first major action blockbuster to release in most countries.

[Menor the Destroyer]

The simple answer here is that AQP2 got buzz, F9 got more buzz, and BW will get even more buzz. 

[CJohn]

The Delta variant is gonna screw us so badly. It is exploding here in Portugal.

[john2000]

for now fast 9 comp is probably the best comp we  got right ?

[Eric the IF]

22 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	2024	16722	12.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp

2.040x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-12 Before Release (19.80M)

2.392x of F9 T-12 Before Release (16.99M)

 

Think I'm just gonna scrap the final count stuff. Seems pretty pointless at this stage of the game. Things are looking very well here.

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	2102	16722	12.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

1.890x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 Before Release (18.34M)

2.430x of F9 T-11 Before Release (17.25M)