The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F9 MTC1

Previews - 131637/518700 1770173.00 3198 shows

Friday PS - 143293/1103847 1765561.00 6282 shows

 

I am thinking 9m previews. OD PS is not bad at all. Based on walkups seen today, I think it should have a mid to late teens friday. 60m+ OW is happening I think . 

9 seems a lot bruh. Assuming your coverage is 82%, that will mean $2.15M gross in MTC 1. Give another 3-4% for rest of night, that's $2.25M. Coupled with $1.5M from MTC 2, that's $3.75M. More like $7.75-8M ish.

[keysersoze123]

^^^^^

You could be right. I am thinking MTC2 is higher. Closer to 1.6m. Also Fast movies play well with "diverse" audience and so I expect MTC ratio to be around 35% and that is why I went for 9m previews. Let us see how things go. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

^^^^^

You could be right. I am thinking MTC2 is higher. Closer to 1.6m. Also Fast movies play well with "diverse" audience and so I expect MTC ratio to be around 35% and that is why I went for 9m previews. Let us see how things go. 

Not exactly same, but Jumanji 2 was 42% in 2 MTCs for previews, with MTC 2 overperforming than usual norm. 

 

Now with 5% Canada missing and Pacific chain closed, 45-47% should be it.

[keysersoze123]

Even AQP2 was lower than that. Why would F9 be worse. 

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even AQP2 was lower than that. Why would F9 be worse. 

AQP2 raw MTC1 #s per you last update was 93K ($1.2M). 25%. If F9 is 8 your raw MTC 1 #s will 22%.

 

AQP2 MTC 2 was 70k, excluding DBOX probably 66K. F9 should be 115K ish.

 

MTC 1 is 1.42x AQP2 while MTC 2 may be around 1.74x. Even if it was 1.74x AQP2, that will be 8.3M.

 

Assuming everything other than MTC 1 is 1.75x of AQP2 for F9, that will be 7.9M.

Edited June 25, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	16753	19134	2381	12.44%

 

Total Seats Today

108

 

2.7399x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-15 [2381 vs 869].

Black Widow has had 4 more days of ticket sales than F9 has had at this point in the track.

No other official comps at the moment.

 

====

 

Slightly misleading total seats sold, as there was a group sale of 20 tickets sold at a showing, which inflated the total a bit.  Even with that taken out, fairly strong total for T-15.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	16647	19134	2487	13.00%

 

Total Seats Today

106

 

2.6599x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-14 [2487 vs 935].

Black Widow has had 4 more days of ticket sales than F9 has had at this point in the track.

No other official comps at the moment.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

At about midnight central F9 had 120,483 for Thursday and 107,281 for Friday.

[charlie Jatinder]

And 7.1

 

Winner is Denver

[john2000]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

And 7.1

 

Winner is Denver

habbs and shaw had 5,8 mill previews and made 60 ow , if fast 9 has the same multi then we can expect  73 ow or so

[charlie Jatinder]

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

At about midnight central F9 had 120,483 for Thursday and 107,281 for Friday.

So THU was around 2x PSm. Friday may be 2.4-2.5x, so may be 260K final. MTC 2 over indexed at around 21% on THU, though MTC 1 was about right at 30%. FRI probably will be 17-18%, so perhaps $17M True Friday. 55M OW is a possibility. 

 

On risk of this biting me back.

 

 

Under H&S I will take as a win.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

One problem. BW is just 2.6x F9 at same point in Sacramento. This will most certainly go down. Not good signs for $15M+ previews. Need good pick up.

[john2000]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

At about midnight central F9 had 120,483 for Thursday and 107,281 for Friday.

any update on that ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any update on that ?

No. Friday run takes longer than Thursday due to having double the show count. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Jacksonville sales update.  Added ~60 Friday shows since Tuesday just in the six theaters.  Numbers pulled Tuesday morning and updated today.  Thursday sales were as of 6pm EST last night.  

 

	Show Date	Day	Theaters	Shows	Current Sales	A/O Tuesday
Fast & Furious 9	6/24	Thursday	6	47	853	489
Fast & Furious 9	6/25	Friday	6	143	2017	674

 

*edit - forgot to mention this doesn't include the one sold out show

Edited June 25, 2021 by katnisscinnaplex

[Madhuvan]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

One problem. BW is just 2.6x F9 at same point in Sacramento. This will most certainly go down. Not good signs for $15M+ previews. Need good pick up.

Considering we are in pandemic and movie will be available on Disney+ , what IM do you see??

I see around 6.5-7x. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Considering we are in pandemic and movie will be available on Disney+ , what IM do you see??

I see around 6.5-7x. 

5.5-5.75x

 

I don't think pandemic matters at all now. Its only Disney+ release that is a hindrance.

Edited June 25, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

5.5-5.75x

 

I don't think pandemic matters at all now. Its only Disney+ release that is a hindrance.

Oh that would be real bad. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Madhuvan said:

Oh that would be real bad. 

how is that bad?

 

that just mean that more people are watching the film as early as they can. multi-smulti without context are just noise.

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

So we got two clear worlds here.  One where, somehow, AQP II is the leading indicator.  Another where everything is peaches and creme.   But things aren't peaches and creme, if only for the lack of Ontario plus some lingering caps.  

 

Still... 

 

If I adjust the Wick 3/H&S comp downward by 5%, I get 8.7m-8.8m.  If I adjust AQP II up by 5%, I get 7.1m.  If I adjust each by 10% up and down, I get 8.2m-8.3m and 7.4m respectively.

 

 

Well, I guess we have the answer to which "world" we are in.  AQP II is still a good comp, just adjusted by 5%.

 

...

 

That's what I get for being influenced by other trackers.  

 

(and, yes, that means I add AQP II to the comp list for BW)

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos i could really use F9, Captain Marvel and Black Widow Sacramento graph. No adjustment just raw data graph to see trend.