The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

SC regional comps also get mildy interesting with Ida. Iirc it didn’t have much effect, but could skew stuff by a couple 100k or so. I suspect Eternals is ending up (slightly) IMAX heavier than BW or SC (maybe someone with the right data can confirm or disprove) and that is affecting the MTC1 ATP more than explicit price hikes — but the big diff vs BW is of course the lack of matinees. Overall though I think we have a pretty tight range.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Avatar Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	109.61		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		9.65m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	83.10		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		9.64m
BW [4:20-5:20]	69.69		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9.63m

 

you have something there my friend. some uncanny trend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Alright, let's get some pivot tables going

[Ronin46]

BO Report/BoPRO

 

Eternals 76.5/78

Spencer 2.0

 

Dune 6.7/7.2

NTTD 5.1/4.6

Venom 3.6/2.9

 

All very similar. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Weird.  Makes me want to shift to at least 9.8m, though as you say MTC 1 is up a smidge.

 

Can't make it too easy for this thread, I suppose.  

I would do simple thing. 

BW - 12.8 * 69.69% = 8.9 * 1.05 (ATP being higher due to no matinee) = 9.35 + 0.8 Canada.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

you have something there my friend. some uncanny trend.

 

Yeah, it's freaky enough that I just want to say "hang it all" and call for 9.7m after all.  But 9.7m is well within range of 9.9m, so if it's there I won't exactly be upset.  For films of this size, when we get down to .1m or .2m it's all variance and luck anyway.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Here are my final sales for each movie (sold tickets * price)

BW - $94,329 (12.81)

Shang-Chi - $54,964 (13.41)

Eternals - $74,356 (13.84)

 

This is total for my three areas and includes a few of each chain along with some others.   

 

Here's the sales breakdown by format

 

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Black Widow	BigD	315	$4,558.05	14.47
	D-Box	53	$1,161.50	21.92
	Dolby	501	$8,087.85	16.14
	IMAX	550	$8,877.07	16.14
	RealD 3D	657	$9,905.83	15.08
	RPX	18	$220.32	12.24
	Standard	4,966	$57,063.62	11.49
	XD	302	$4,454.50	14.75
Black Widow Total		7,362	$94,328.74	12.81
Eternals	4DX	13	$254.93	19.61
	BigD	140	$2,100.00	15.00
	D-Box	121	$2,838.26	23.46
	Dolby	606	$10,986.50	18.13
	IMAX	442	$7,437.37	16.83
	RealD 3D	525	$6,727.28	12.81
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	3,189	$38,409.05	12.04
	XD	314	$5,313.32	16.92
Eternals Total		5,372	$74,356.23	13.84
Shang-Chi	4DX	10	$196.10	19.61
	BigD	92	$1,380.00	15.00
	D-Box	34	$786.42	23.13
	Dolby	442	$7,435.22	16.82
	IMAX	316	$5,177.31	16.38
	RealD 3D	247	$3,838.15	15.54
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	2,818	$33,979.51	12.06
	XD	118	$1,871.48	15.86
Shang-Chi Total		4,099	$54,953.71	13.41

[Joyous Legion]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Here's the sales breakdown by format

 

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Black Widow	BigD	315	$4,558.05	14.47
	D-Box	53	$1,161.50	21.92
	Dolby	501	$8,087.85	16.14
	IMAX	550	$8,877.07	16.14
	RealD 3D	657	$9,905.83	15.08
	RPX	18	$220.32	12.24
	Standard	4,966	$57,063.62	11.49
	XD	302	$4,454.50	14.75
Black Widow Total		7,362	$94,328.74	12.81
Eternals	4DX	13	$254.93	19.61
	BigD	140	$2,100.00	15.00
	D-Box	121	$2,838.26	23.46
	Dolby	606	$10,986.50	18.13
	IMAX	442	$7,437.37	16.83
	RealD 3D	525	$6,727.28	12.81
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	3,189	$38,409.05	12.04
	XD	314	$5,313.32	16.92
Eternals Total		5,372	$74,356.23	13.84
Shang-Chi	4DX	10	$196.10	19.61
	BigD	92	$1,380.00	15.00
	D-Box	34	$786.42	23.13
	Dolby	442	$7,435.22	16.82
	IMAX	316	$5,177.31	16.38
	RealD 3D	247	$3,838.15	15.54
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	2,818	$33,979.51	12.06
	XD	118	$1,871.48	15.86
Shang-Chi Total		4,099	$54,953.71	13.41

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Here's the sales breakdown by format

 

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Black Widow	BigD	315	$4,558.05	14.47
	D-Box	53	$1,161.50	21.92
	Dolby	501	$8,087.85	16.14
	IMAX	550	$8,877.07	16.14
	RealD 3D	657	$9,905.83	15.08
	RPX	18	$220.32	12.24
	Standard	4,966	$57,063.62	11.49
	XD	302	$4,454.50	14.75
Black Widow Total		7,362	$94,328.74	12.81
Eternals	4DX	13	$254.93	19.61
	BigD	140	$2,100.00	15.00
	D-Box	121	$2,838.26	23.46
	Dolby	606	$10,986.50	18.13
	IMAX	442	$7,437.37	16.83
	RealD 3D	525	$6,727.28	12.81
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	3,189	$38,409.05	12.04
	XD	314	$5,313.32	16.92
Eternals Total		5,372	$74,356.23	13.84
Shang-Chi	4DX	10	$196.10	19.61
	BigD	92	$1,380.00	15.00
	D-Box	34	$786.42	23.13
	Dolby	442	$7,435.22	16.82
	IMAX	316	$5,177.31	16.38
	RealD 3D	247	$3,838.15	15.54
	RPX	22	$289.52	13.16
	Standard	2,818	$33,979.51	12.06
	XD	118	$1,871.48	15.86
Shang-Chi Total		4,099	$54,953.71	13.41

Amazing stuff. Keep building this data. So Eternals is skewing PLF more than BW or SC. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 11/2/2021 at 1:05 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Eternals Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	221	55,722	2,371	4.26%	$27,628	$11.65
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,737	36.05%	$26,691	$15.37
Cine Capri	4	1,782	137	7.69%	$1,929	$14.08
IMAX	2	890	281	31.57%	$4,215	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	33	1.94%	$437	$13.24
Total	255	64,916	4,559	7.02%	$60,900	$13.36

 

Comps

1.32x Shang Chi T-3 Days - $11.6M

0.83x Black Widow T-3 Days - 11.5M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Better last 4 days, adding 1338, almost what Shang Chi did i.e. 1373. If trend was like other places Monday was probably over Shang Chi. Black Widow comp remained steady, but Shang Chi pace fell in last 3 days, hopefully Eternals manage itself. 

 

Harkins numbers are good enough for double digit so far, hopefully they hold.

At ~18:00, 11,687 admits at Harkins for Eternals. Good sales. Final admits could be 14K. Let's see.

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins first show 3957/11449 (34.5%) on 35 shows for Eternals.

 

Shang Chi was 3522 at 31.7% on 32 shows, finaled at 13171 admits (26.1%) on 193 shows.

 

Eternals has more shows remaining, 239, so let's see where it ends.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing stuff. Keep building this data. So Eternals is skewing PLF more than BW or SC. 

PLF and IMAX numbers in Harkins are par Shang Chi for me.

[Cap]

ETERNALS

 

Fox Run Mall - Regal

 

Eternals

296

516

57.36

 

Movie	Est
Regal - Fox Run Mall
Widow	8.9
Shang Chi	6.43
Venom	11.04
No Time To Die	10.65
Dune	7.25
Average:	8.854

 

The lack of showings is killing this.  Maybe that's what they get for a 2:40 minute movie 🤷‍♀️

 

So in my panicked state I forgot to get Flagship Falmouth's ticket count before running off to the movie.  I will say that when I checked around 5:00PM it was only about 1/2 full from the two showings they had. Definitely behind Widow and Shang Chi up here, around the same as Bond.

 

I don't know if that's cause of lack of interest, or if it's because this is the first movie where pre-sale tickets went on sale AFTER the IMAX theater was open.  (Like, for Dune, they went on sale AFTER the theater was already half sold.)  Our IMAX was sold out tonight, so that's 150 people who had to go to Falmouth cause it was the only game in town, not going to Falmouth anymore.  Will be interested in to see if that's a trend going forward with the theater or not.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Eternals has passed Shang-Chi final at MTC2. Moving at expected pace. Still on track for 9.7 million (10% higher than SC) I think, with a chance for more. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins also ET is over SC (13.1K). Most likely 15K final.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	392	14319	2.74%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 296

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

1.574x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (6.45M)

0.473x of Shang-Chi T-15 (4.16M)

0.710x of Venom 2 T-15 (8.24M)

0.737x of No Time to Die T-15 (4.64M)

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	420	14319	2.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

1.597x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (6.55M)

0.473x of Shang-Chi T-14 (4.17M)

0.663x of Venom 2 T-14 (7.7M)

0.743x of No Time to Die T-14 (4.68M)

 

Weed

[Eric is Quiet]

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-48 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	36	8527	0.42%

 

I'm including the Early Access shows happening on November 27 into the full count. I just don't see the need to divide them up. However, it should not come as a surprise to anybody here that almost all the sales so far are from said Early Access shows. In fact, only four tickets were sold for OD, December 22. But honestly...that's four more than I expected, considering how far away the movie is.

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins is now well ahead of SC at 14.4K+ sold. Final number shall be close to 16K, +20% Shang Chi.

 

Considering how others have it lower, I guess West coast is overperforming may be.

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Friday(286 showings): 10440(+1726)/38124

 

Dune comp: 13.30M

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Friday(290 showings): 11941(+1501)/38523(+399)

 

Dune comp: 13.94M

[keysersoze123]

Eternals Previews Final

MTC1 - 183064/487466 2912684.36 2843 shows +59562

MTC2 - 141135/420583 1832452.70 2965 shows +65046

 

Final day ticket sales perspective, it did below SC at MTC1(around 5%) and above SC at MTC2(raw tickets sold). I would say round 10m previews(just plain extrapolation from SC gross and MTC ratio). This is a movie that seem to hone in on 10m for most of the trackers here. 

 

I just have MTC1 for Friday for now. will post MTC2 tomorrow morning(Friday runs take lot longer). 

MTC1 Friday PS End - 166712/1004158 2653459.74 5519 shows

 

SC added 192.9K tickets from its PS to end. Thinking based on ratio today Eternals is headed to 350K. I would say between 22-23m true friday. Let us see how the tomorrow goes. 

 

 

On 9/2/2021 at 8:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews

MTC1 - 168703/510345 2583538.05 3099 shows

MTC2 - 121380/461479 1585398.37 3454 shows

 

Sticking to earlier prediction and would say 9.1m previews. 

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by keysersoze123